I should add this is going to be long battle. in all of Texas as the rivers and lakes in Texas are full and a wet pattern in place
check out the GEM from the Dallas NWS discussion about next week after the break Monday and Tuesday
. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY, WHAT IS STILL IN QUESTION ARE THE AMOUNTS. THAT’S
BECAUSE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONTINGENT ON WHETHER A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND GETS DRAWN
NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER TROUGH INTO MEXICO. SHOULD THIS OCCUR IT
WOULD PROVIDE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR LIFT AND RESULT IN A
SWATH OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS TEXAS. WE’VE SEEN BOTH
THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF FLIRT WITH THIS SCENARIO ON
OCCASIONAL RUNS AND WE KNOW FROM CLIMATOLOGY THAT THIS IS A
PATTERN SETUP THAT HAS PRODUCED MANY INSTANCES OF 10+ INCHES OF
RAIN. AGAIN, WE WILL NOT START ADVERTISING OR ANTICIPATING THIS
UNTIL WE GET BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH THE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM
(THAT HASN’T ORGANIZED YET), BUT WE’RE WATCHING THIS CLOSELY AS
IT’D BE A WORSE CASE SCENARIO AFTER ALL OF THE RAIN WE’VE ALREADY
SEEN.
If this forecast is correct then the water is going over the spillway for sure even if 8 gates are open IMO
just out
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, BANDERA, BEXAR, BLANCO, BURNET, COMAL, EDWARDS,
GILLESPIE, HAYS, KENDALL, KERR, KINNEY, LLANO, MAVERICK,
MEDINA, REAL, TRAVIS, UVALDE, VAL VERDE, WILLIAMSON, AND
ZAVALA.
* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* ADDITIONAL NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.