If this forecast is correct then the water is going over the spillway for sure even if 8 gates are open IMO
just out
..FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS, INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS, BANDERA, BEXAR, BLANCO, BURNET, COMAL, EDWARDS,
GILLESPIE, HAYS, KENDALL, KERR, KINNEY, LLANO, MAVERICK,
MEDINA, REAL, TRAVIS, UVALDE, VAL VERDE, WILLIAMSON, AND
ZAVALA.
* THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
* ADDITIONAL NEW RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS RECEIVING UP TO 5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL
COUNTRY. THE TIMING FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
This is why I think the situation will reach critical mass soon
1) Lake Buchanan was at 1013 feet before the deluge......they were holding back water at ZERO cfs as it was filling up to the 1018 flood level until the LLANO river crest eased(300,000 cfs peak)....the lake peaked at 1019.2 feet and is 1018.25 feet now with 60,000 bfs outflow and out 30,000 in) they can allow the lake to get much higher in fear of other issues
in other words no more or Little storage from Buchanan
2) The Pedernales river is the west arm of lake travis and extends west..no Dams on this river so it all flows into the Lake..at peak vales the other day it was probably dumping 20-30,000 Cfs into the lake
3) according to data the peak inflow from the dams above was 315,000 now lets add the 30,000 from the west river and another 15,000 for the shoreline area and lets say a total of 360,000 total inflow to the lake at peak flow.....
so last storm was 360,000 inflow to the lake from the lower watershed and ZERO from the upper upper from Rainfall runoff with ZERO outflow from travis
net inflow to travis and amazing 360,000 bfs at peak
now lets assume this Rainfall event is only 1/3 that as the last say 100,000 cfs max inflow from the rain.....there is 30,000 out flow now but that is being canceled out by the now Buchanan dam releases
Now I under that inflows at certain spots won’t peak out at the same time and will have peaks and valleys and I also understand it takes more water raise the lake at a foot at higher levels then at lower levels but I think you all see my concern