With just one look at Jeb! you can tell that something isn't right with him, I suspect overbreeding:
Posted on 10/19/2018 4:01:51 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Could Republicans do the unthinkable on November 6th and keep a majority in the House? Politico’s Rachel Bade calls it “unlikely,” but not impossible. Bade hears from Republicans and “even a few Democrats” that the political winds have shifted enough this month that it might result in a slight GOP majority once all the votes have been counted.
....Just about every poll predicts it won’t happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi’s party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.
And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.....
“Unlikely” seems right if one watches the polling. At FiveThirtyEight, the forecast gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of holding the majority, which might be slightly better than unlikely, but not by a lot. Thanks to the disparity between urban centers and everywhere else, Democrats have an advantage in the overall popular vote but Republicans have one in distribution. By their calculation, Democrats have to win the national popular vote by 5.5 points in order to win 218 or more seats in the House.
So what does the polling tell us? Right now, the RCP average Democratic lead is 7.6%. It’s close enough that it the MoE could pull it below the line needed for the gavel. Plus, as Bade notes, Democrats are noticing that the GOP are rebounding in specific races they thought they had locked up:
...Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And they’ve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanan’s Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent....
They may be running into trouble in Minnesota, where Pete Stauber looks set to flip Rick Nolan’s Democratic seat in the Iron Range. Republicans might also be in trouble in MN-02 where incumbent Jason Lewis has trailed in some polls, and where Democrats win more state legislative seats of late, so it could be a trade. But a trade doesn’t help Democrats take over the House majority, either.
The wild card in this is the Kavanaugh Effect. How many Republican voters who were complacent without Donald Trump on the ballot have now been galvanized by that debacle? How many has Trump himself galvanized in his barnstorming over the last few weeks? The polling mainly missed thesurge of marginally attached voters that turned up in 2016, and may be missing it again now. Add that to the massive fundraising and organizing advantage the RNC has over the DNC, and we could be in for a surprise on Election Night.
Not that I’d bet that way, but it’s definitely possible. And maybe even somewhere north of unlikely.
“Money didn’t help Hillary or Jeb.”
His name is Jeb! dammit!
President Clinton has big coat tails.
The CBS Evening News (it was on in the bar) says that the Democrats have a lock on 226 House seats and that President Trump is very unpopular.
They're experts, you know.
Deja vu' this time, only more so. Why on God's green earth would anyone vote for Dems, beside those that didn't vote for DJT in '16. He's got less haters this year--having schmoozed some indies, blacks, hispanics--and we've got more support after Kavanaugh, the caravan approaching, and the economy.
Senate + 2 , House + 2 or 3. Can't friggin' wait to bury the bastards. If they haven't self-immolated by the election, their tantrums and mob tactics will finish them shortly thereafter.
With just one look at Jeb! you can tell that something isn't right with him, I suspect overbreeding:
He will always be Yeb to me.
Please clap, Jeb got 3 delegates.
“Why on God’s green earth would anyone vote for Dems”
Just to add...why on earth would parents of kids in high school and college vote Democrat knowing they will pass #MeToo laws that would put their kids in legal danger?...for that matter, and for the same reason, why would voting age teens vote Democrat as well?
Now if a pollster were to call one of these parents, they aren’t going to tell them the truth about how they are voting. We saw that in 2016 with the silent Trump voter.
Couple that with the difficulty in even reaching people to poll and you have the makings of a soup that no one knows what it will taste like. Polling is a total crapshoot.
I wish I could be so optimistic. Here in VA last year we lost one of our most conservative delegate districts to a tranny.
“Democrats too awash in cash...”
But the DNC was broke not so very long ago - is anyone looking into how they suddenly became flush with cash?
Good one.
Except in wave elections, e.g. 1980, 1994, the Senate and House usually have their own dynamics.
I do hope that even if someone like Lou Barletta-whom I admire deeply-loses, he doesn't cause too much of a drag on down-ballot races.
That state is really going down the drain, politically.
Stuart Runs For President
Unlikely starts at 20-1. 6-1 is just a long shot.
Nate isn’t so great at predictions when he doesn’t have access to Obama’s internal polls.
Just watched her local debate against MA candidate Jeff Diehl. She keeps talking about some obscure law in
2013 that she supposedly “ co- Authored” on the Armed Services Committee? What the hell is that Dyke doing on the Armed Services Committee?
Like Shrillary, the Demon Woman.. showed on a Friday night at 7:00PM locally.
None of the Crazy Lesbians and Looney Libs that actually pay taxes here are watching.
As boxes of Rocks go... Dizzy Lizzie, the Wanna be Fauxchaontas made her intellect “Perfectly CLEAR”
Whadda DOPE.
“People hate attacks. And that’s all we’re seeing from Dems”.
That’s true. But how many on our side or on the fence actually see or are aware of the attacks?
I talked to an elderly conservative lady today and she had no idea about Rand Paul having his ribs broken or Ted Cruz being harassed at dinner.
The good newss is that all the wierd and weak candidates that the Dems are running will hamstring them in 2020 along with worthless and failed attempts to impeach or otherwise grandstand. Ttump will blow them all away in 2020 as his coattails flip the house back, get rid of Doug Jones, hold red state seats where a lot of R's will be up for reelection. Won't get the Senate to 60 in 2020 but will keep a strong majority.
Well, the RCP average goes against what I believe my grade school teachers taught me, which was never to average percents. And as far as things like ‘margin of error’ that only means that if you take the poll in the same way each time you should get the same answer within that margin. It has nothing to do with accuracy against the target goal of a given poll: dummy in... dummy out within the margin.
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