Posted on 10/19/2018 4:01:51 PM PDT by MaxistheBest
Could Republicans do the unthinkable on November 6th and keep a majority in the House? Politico’s Rachel Bade calls it “unlikely,” but not impossible. Bade hears from Republicans and “even a few Democrats” that the political winds have shifted enough this month that it might result in a slight GOP majority once all the votes have been counted.
....Just about every poll predicts it won’t happen: Suburban voters are too fed up with Donald Trump, and Democrats too awash in cash, for Nancy Pelosi’s party not to seize the House on Nov. 6.
And yet House Republicans — and privately, even a few Democrats — say the GOP could still hang on, if only by a few seats. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court has given GOP voters a badly needed enthusiasm boost, they argue, and several races seen as unwinnable just weeks ago are suddenly back within reach for Republicans.
Democrats, meanwhile, have retreated from several battlegrounds once considered prime targets. They’ve also deserted a Democratic-controlled open seat in Minnesota, creating a new, rare pickup opportunity for Republicans in a cycle where they’ve consistently been on defense.....
“Unlikely” seems right if one watches the polling. At FiveThirtyEight, the forecast gives the GOP a 1-in-6 chance of holding the majority, which might be slightly better than unlikely, but not by a lot. Thanks to the disparity between urban centers and everywhere else, Democrats have an advantage in the overall popular vote but Republicans have one in distribution. By their calculation, Democrats have to win the national popular vote by 5.5 points in order to win 218 or more seats in the House.
So what does the polling tell us? Right now, the RCP average Democratic lead is 7.6%. It’s close enough that it the MoE could pull it below the line needed for the gavel. Plus, as Bade notes, Democrats are noticing that the GOP are rebounding in specific races they thought they had locked up:
...Democrats are also taking money from the race to unseat GOP Rep. Don Bacon of Nebraska, who, Republicans say, has a healthy lead. That came just days after Democrats pulled out of Hispanic-populated districts represented by Rep. David Valadao in central California and Rep. Will Hurd along the Texas border. And they’ve withdrawn $800,000 in planned ads from Rep. Vern Buchanan’s Florida district, where the Democratic challenger, David Shapiro, trails the incumbent....
They may be running into trouble in Minnesota, where Pete Stauber looks set to flip Rick Nolan’s Democratic seat in the Iron Range. Republicans might also be in trouble in MN-02 where incumbent Jason Lewis has trailed in some polls, and where Democrats win more state legislative seats of late, so it could be a trade. But a trade doesn’t help Democrats take over the House majority, either.
The wild card in this is the Kavanaugh Effect. How many Republican voters who were complacent without Donald Trump on the ballot have now been galvanized by that debacle? How many has Trump himself galvanized in his barnstorming over the last few weeks? The polling mainly missed thesurge of marginally attached voters that turned up in 2016, and may be missing it again now. Add that to the massive fundraising and organizing advantage the RNC has over the DNC, and we could be in for a surprise on Election Night.
Not that I’d bet that way, but it’s definitely possible. And maybe even somewhere north of unlikely.
Yeah we’ll lose House seats for sure.
I personally know several voters who are going to vote Republican for Senate to support Trump, and then vote Democrat for the House seat to support Maxine Waters.
LOL!
NOBODY is nuts enough to do that.
“...improved Democrat vote manufactury.”
They HAVE TO cheat! They have absolutely nothing positive to campaign on, only their hatred of the first president since Reagan to offer a positive vision of the future.
It all sounds good. It’ll be great for sure when we all VOTE on November 6!
I agree. Trump will show again in Florida and pull Desantis and Scott to victory. I already sent in ballot. Voted red down the ticket! Simple as that.
Yes, Desantis has been a disappointment and has distanced himself from Trump, who got him the nomination. I thought he was made of sterner stuff.
.
VA is loaded with freaks!
A lawsuit challenged whether they had the right to do that. Is that still active?
I wondered that as well, I don’t think they are flush with cash or they’d be talking about it 24/7. I suspect fake news
Trump economy. Silicon Valley is awash in cash and, ironically, using it to try and punish Trump.
Last I heard was the PA Supreme Court drew the districts and that was it. The PA GOP didn’t even try to impeach them like West Virginia did. I don’t believe SCOTUS was reviewing it.
We will gain 10 seats in the house and 4-5 seats in the Senate and the Democraps will say it was a victory!
you do understand house seats are more localized? You can have an R senator win, but a few RAT congressman win too, all in the same state.
By the time President Trump is reelected in 2020, the snowflakes, astroturf, and other assorted trash from the Demagogic Party will be overdosing on their anti-depressants. I'm looking forward to that.
It’s only “unthinkable” to leftists who believe the lies of their dishonest media, “pundits”, and manipulated polls. These people don’t think. I’ve never expected a “blue trickle”. Look at the big picture: LOTS of people gave jobs and got tax-reform bonuses, Democrats exposed in Kavanaugh hearing, Trump has done a good job, everyone knows the media is biased and lying (except those who are brain-dead), R voters are energized, the Christian component of R voters is praying and voting, international relations way up, ... Besides all this Trump WINS. He is campaigning with his typical energy and strategy. I can’t think of one reason Ds think they will do better. It’s all worthless talk. This election will be 2016 redux. I’m expecting to see media sour faces Nov 6.
MOBS versus JOBS!!!
“With just one look at Jeb! you can tell that something isn’t right with him...”
You do know that picture was photoshopped, right?
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