Posted on 10/21/2018 7:15:39 PM PDT by Ravi
While Obama won by 7, Heller squeaked in. Lots of Obama/Heller voters 2012.
Ds as I understand it always front load the first two days of early voting in NV. See how Washoe looks in a week.
How many democrats are voting for democrats?
They”won” early voting by 1100 yesterday. Today by only 440. The trend is your friend here. We should close the gap on the weekdays. This is much like 2012/2016.
Interesting! The Washoe county results are a bit discouraging, but its one day. Thanks for pinging me.
Exactly. Let’s talk in a week. This is kinda what happened in NC earlier. Everyone freaked out after the relatively miniscule amount of absentee voters started showing some Dem gains but then all the early voting started in earnest and the trend showed numbers much like 2016. It’s always best to wait a few days before making any assessment...
That is an excellent question...
This looks more of the same for NV.
Thanks for the update. Things seem to be looking up. But we’ll find out for sure on election day.
Just for fun I produced projected data including the 6 missing counties in a simple methodology that I do not claim to be predictive. I did this because I am getting excited as I do not think that I have seen any negative R results so far.
For the base figures I used Ravi’s post #12 in this thread which totaled 60,166 votes. I used the 2016 Trump vs Clinton vote totals (from the 2017 World Almanac) and found that the 6 counties represented 4.4649% of the overall Nevada total. I assumed that the totals would be the same %. I bumped up the total by 4.67365% or 2,812 votes for these 6 counties. I assumed that the independent % will not change. To get the D/R split, I noted that 72,72% went republican for those 6 counties in 2016. I ended up with the following:
D: 26,966 (42.8%) or - 1.4% from 2016
R: 25,048 (39.8%) or + 4.3% from 2016
I: 10,964 (17.4%) or - 2.1% from 2016
Caution: These are fun #’s and are not real.
A question for LS. As NV (although extremely early) seems positive, does that mean we have seen no actual data that does not have R gains? If this continues to be the case then most, if not all of the polls would be worthless, and the results would be beyond anyone’s projection. Without an unforeseen cataclysmic occurrence, I do not believe that it is possible that additional R surge would not translate throughout the final voting.
Yep. Exactly.
Nobody know how the Kavanaugh debacle affected Democratic voters in a definitive way.
It was a deeply divisive process and independants and even democrats were deeply divided on how Senate Democrat leadership played this out.
America is going to be shocked when the dust settles on this and the mid terms are over. Something big is brewing.
Nobody knows how the Kavanaugh debacle affected Democratic voters in a definitive way.
It was a deeply divisive process and independants and even democrats were deeply divided on how Senate Democrat leadership played this out.
America is going to be shocked when the dust settles on this and the mid terms are over. Something big is brewing.
You sir are definitely onto something! Excellent work with those 6 small GOP counties and extremely valid projections! Makes perfect sense your analysis. I look forward to Monday through Friday data to confirm patterns - should be exciting.
Also more interesting than a 2016 comparison is the 2012 comparison when he last ran. I sense that might be more valid.
Gonna be a TrumpNAMI if we all get to the polls.
(Stormy is getting to her pole)
The GOP didn’t build a turnoit machine.....The Donald did.
Actually, instead of the ANTIFA vote for or against, I wonder how many democrat men saw where we are headed if the Dems treat all men like Kavanaugh.....guilty until proven innocent and must believe all women. That is a true nightmare future for men.
Well, we have seen actual data, but it’s really skewed by the fact that only Washoe and Clark are open on Sat and Sunday, and all the other early voting stations that favor the red vote don’t open until today.
BTW, Trump lost NV by 27k votes. Since Nov. 2016, Rs have shaved net 29k off the D registration lead.
Yep. I was concerned because NV was the ONLY observation out of (now) some 30 showing anything other than serious R gains.
You should read Ralston’s mopey tweet this morning (Review-Journal Dem Hack) saying the Reps did better and the Dems did worse regarding yesterday’s (Sunday’s) early vote.
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