Posted on 10/22/2018 2:50:13 PM PDT by Kaslin
RUSH: Folks, I’m gonna just tell you right now. I don’t believe, and I haven’t believed for a long time, that there has been this slam-dunk blue wave. What we’re being told right now is that six months ago, nine months ago, all the way back to December when the first generic ballots polls were taken, that the Democrats had a 12- to 13-point advantage, that the American people realized their mistake electing Trump and Republicans and couldn’t wait to put Democrats back in power.
Now, that argued against real life. Real life since 2010 is the Democrats have been losing elections left and right. But for some reason, in the 2018 midterms, the American people were all of a sudden gonna admit all these mistakes they’ve made and put Democrats back in power. I don’t believe it! But we got media narratives that a gigantic blue wave was gonna happen. We had that media narrative go on from December last year all the way through September of this year — and then, and then the generic ballot started tightening, and then it began to look as if, “Weeeeell, maybe it won’t be as big a blue wave.
“Republicans look at they might actually gain seats in the Senate. Oh, no! Now the president’s approval number is higher than it’s ever been.” In CNN’s own poll, he’s at 44%. Rasmussen has Trump as 51%. There’s nothing happening that suggests a blue wave is happening! I, frankly, don’t believe there ever was one. I think as we get closer to the moment of truth (i.e., Election Day) people have to start reeling in these madcap predictions and projections because they want to get as close to accurate as they can for the sake of their business.
They’re in the polling boss; they don’t want to be wildly wrong again and again and again. After all, if that’s the case, who’d hire them? So now we’re told, “Well, there’s been a shift a little bit. It may be… I’m starting to see stories here, “Five Ways the Republicans Can Hold the House.” “Seven Ways the Republicans Can Hold the House.” “Four Ways They Could Lose the House.” Well, a month ago there was no way the Republicans were gonna hold the House. Now all of a sudden, we’re starting to see that the blue wave may not there?
I don’t think it ever did. I don’t think it ever did exist. I think it was made up, manufactured. You can get the poll result you want, depending on when you take the poll and who you decide to put in your sample. There is no way… There is simply no way that a political party openly promoting this invasion of 7,000, now 8,000 illegal aliens is gonna be swept to a massive landslide win! The American people are not angry that we have not stopped this. The American people en masse are not wanting more illegal immigration.
The American people, in a majority — no matter how you slice it — are not asking for a political party to stop paying attention to the border and let everybody who wants in, in. The American people are not there. The American people never have been there! The Democrat Party is there, and the Democrat Party wants you to think a lot of Americans are there, but they aren’t.
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
RUSH: What did I tell you? What did I tell you? The chairman of the Democrat National Committee, the well-known Marxist and leftist, Tom Perez, the former labor secretary for Barack Hussein Obama, quote, “We always knew this election was gonna be close.” He is now actively diminishing all talk of a blue wave. “We always knew this election was gonna close.” This comes from an interview he did today on CNN. We didn’t “always know this was gonna be close,” Mr. Perez.
You and your buddies have been telling everybody this was gonna be a blue wave landslide wipeout ever since last December. You have made book on it. You’ve run campaigns on it. You ran the Kavanaugh operation based on it. You’re running this mob coming up here from Central and South America on it! Now all of a sudden two weeks out, almost two weeks to the day (sputtering), “Well… well… well, we always knew the election was gonna be close.”
So what happened to this blue wave? What happened to it? Seriously! The Democrats have been out assuring everybody, promising everybody, everybody — the Republicans been scared to death. How many Republicans do you know? How many Republicans have you seen on TV the past month acknowledge they’re gonna lose the House? How many…? It’s every one of them, is it not, with rare exceptions! It ticks me off! I can’t hold back.
It ticks me off, the number of Republicans (I can give you names if I wanted to) saying, “Oh, yeah. We’re gonna lose the House. The objective now is to make sure we hold the Senate.” How long is it gonna take — how many cycles, how many years is it gonna take — for our side to realize the media is jamming ’em every day? The media is making it up. The media and the pollsters and whoever else have an agenda, and they’re servicing it every day.
I can’t tell you the number of guys I’ve talked to who say, “Oh, yeah, there’s no way we hold the House, Rush.”
“Why? Why do you think this?”
“Well, the media, polling data.”
“Why are you believing it?” I’ve asked ’em point-blank. “How many people do you run into who you know voted for Trump who wish they hadn’t?”
“Well, nobody.”
“Exactly my point! How many people do you know who voted for Trump claiming that the Democrats need to win now because Trump has to be stopped and all this tweeting has to be stopped and all these bad manners have to be?”
“Uh, nobody.”
“So why do you think the blue wave?”
“I saw it in the media. I saw it on TV. I see the polls.”
“Why do you believe it? Where is the trend that Democrats are winning elections?”
Seventy-seven thousand people have signed up to get into the Trump rally in Texas for Cruz that holds 17,000 people. Where do you get this idea Democrats are popular?
BREAK TRANSCRIPT
The polls this year are scattered and infrequent compared to presidential years. Lot cheaper to have one poll than over 400 for congress.
Most of the congressional polls are by local newspapers and colleges. Bound to be left wing bias in them. But those are the polls “professionals” such as Ed Rollins and L Sabato, who are calling it for the rats, are going by.
Never thought there’d be a blue wave or a repub one, just a hard fight with the GOP holding on to a slimmer majority in the house. I’m hoping for over 60 in the senate.
Somewhere Paul Ryan is very sad.
Had Kavanaugh not been seated, there was to be massive vote fraud using mostly illegals, and leftists in the judiciary were to see that immigration and other government agencies didn’t block it. The red wave media blitz was to grant legitimacy to the results.
I think they will still try, and that is why we have south American criminals marching to the United State in order to try to block vote law enforcement on election day.
Pollsters like Sabato, as in 2016, are practicing Taqiyya.
Like Lara Trump and Rep Louie Gohmert were just saying (from their LIVE broadcast, at the Houston Trump Rally)....
We’re fighting a war. We won a YUGE battle, in 2016....we have more battles to win.
Somewhere Paul Ryan is very sad.
*******
He’s a weird dude. He’s probably still holding up his little pamphlet. I forget what it’s called. Good riddance.
Music to my ears. That was their number one talking point at around 10pm on election night 2016, when it become apparent the electoral college was about to hand them their ass.
The senate looks great right now.
But the polls for the house look very bad.
If the polls are to believed, Pelosi has a great chance of taking over.
I know I shouldn’t believe the polls or be discouraged by them. But at the same time to be dismissive of dem chances of house takeover seems like real hubris. They have a big money advantage in many house races and it is a real problem we shouldn’t be in denial about.
I see our side being more fired up now than in 2016.
We’ll see in 2 weeks.
You should have listened to Rush today.
Don’t believe the polls.
Let’s not celebrate too early.
Just ignore predictions, good news or bad about the election.
Just be sure to get out and VOTE!!!
The generic ballot is what it is. But of course it doesn’t reflect what is happening in 435 districts, or really the 100 or so marginal districts.
One of the problems is that all of the media attention here is devoted to the supposedly tossup races here in California (and similarly for the WashPo crowd in Virginia). But the races in other places are not receiving the same influx of $$$ and free liberal media and maybe not as “competitive”
Nothing would please me more to see all the libs crying in their drinks on election night - I might have to go out to SF just to enjoy.
I hope he’s correct. ALL the idiot liberal radio hosts around here spew completely different information, though most concede that the Pubbies pick up a couple of Senate seats
Always enjoy a Rush transcript. Thanks for posting it again, Kaslin.
Rush has a point - there can’t be very many people who went with Trump who suddenly think differently. I don’t understand the Democrat’s tactics from a political perspective. They are shooting themselves in the foot again and again. I can only surmise that they are trying to motivate their base - but are they turning off the moderates? They surely can’t be swaying many moderate Republicans. What they are doing and saying is anything but moderate.
I disagree a little with Rush about pollsters. Pollster’s always get work for some reason. And I’m sure their bread and butter has nothing to do with what you see on TV, it’s the private polling - for politics and commercial products alike - that earn them their money. What we need is a little more competition in the polling business. The newer outfits were a lot more accurate in 2016 - they had to be because they more or less only made their money on the political polls. If these outfits gain steam, then mavbe in a few cycles we’ll see everyone make a better effort for accuracy. Until then they are free to try to use polls to push the electorate rather than to predict the elections.
BTW, if you looked into the data on almost all those 2016 polls you can see the ways they were off - you could argue they did it intentionally. If they didn’t deliberately oversample Dems, then they fudged the Independent numbers. The reality is that Independents break pretty much the same way as the two parties do call it 46% to 44% Dem advantage, give or take. The Independents break the same way, but in their internals they break the Independents heavy for the Democrats. Not sure if that is just to make it look like they are trying to be balanced, or if it’s just their way of pushing the data hoping to push the voters.
You just can’t trust the polls, especially the generic ballot polls. I’m curious which polls you see that worry the most, I’d like to see the internals. It’s easy if you oversample NY and CA to slant the numbers - even likely voter numbers - obviously because those states lean harder to the left.
But all politics is local (remember the good old days, compared to today when Democrats like Tip O’Neil looked level headed?). Each House race has to be polled on its own, and the politicians have their private polling outfits giving them the scoop - small sample sizes can sometimes get you lopsided results, that’s just statistics, but they can also be confirmatory if you are getting consistent numbers or numbers large enough outside the margin of error).
And in the end the progressives were defeated by their own lies. This is why honesty is a virtue. Actually saw lefties who were upset they were lied to leading into the last election. One actually said he did not vote because he thought it was not needed. Hillary never had that big lead. And getting lied too again, will just mean more #walkaways.
Real clear politics current projection for the house:
205 dems, 199 republicans, 31 tossups.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html
538 blogs projection:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
This is how the modern Democrat Party operates now.
Create a narrative.
Throw money around to reinforce the narrative.
Demonize and destroy ANYONE that dares to question or speak against the narrative.
Feign shock and incite followers to violence when the narrative does not work. Because it could not be possible it did not work, it had to be those wascally wussians!!
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