Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Chinese economy slowing faster than expected, worst yet to come
SCMP ^ | 31 )ct 2018 | SCMP

Posted on 10/31/2018 9:30:08 PM PDT by BeauBo

New export orders contracted for the fifth month in a row in October, to 46.9 from 48 in September. Imports also contracted for a fourth straight month, indicating weakening demand within China, while the decline in manufacturing employment accelerated. Non-manufacturing activity, dominated by the service sector, also slowed in October... We expect a worse growth slowdown in spring 2019.

(Excerpt) Read more at scmp.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; economy; slowdown; tariff; trade
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last
To: vannrox

I’m inclined to believe your assertions that this will not spell economic doom. After all, the u.s. news media treats nine percent growth instead of ten percent growth as if it were ruinous. OToH, i think you’re downplaying it a bit. Our trade deficit with them is near ten percent of their entire GDP. And the major source of their fluidity. And I don’t buy for a second that they’re only selling junk to us but high quality goods to everyone else.
I UI


41 posted on 11/01/2018 3:44:49 AM PDT by dangus ("The floor of Hell is paved with the skulls of bishops" -- St. Athanasius)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: dangus

Nothing flashy, but I’ve always liked the intros to “Life In The Fast Lane” and “Johnny B. Goode”.

Not sure why, by these lines right after the intro always made me smile:
He was a hard-headed man he was brutally handsome
And she was terminally pretty


42 posted on 11/01/2018 3:52:49 AM PDT by MayflowerMadam ("Do not discount anything in which Donald Trump is involved." - Rush Limbaugh)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: dangus
True, true. All those iPhones for instance, come from FoxCon. They are not junk...even though they can apparently be disabled by helium. Heh heh.

Never the less, the numbers clearly show that while America accounts for 33% of all outbound shipping containers from China, America only represents 11% of the total amount by value. If junk was evenly distributed to the rest of the world, then the figure would also be 33%, would it not?

I have a post on this subject HERE. you might want to read it.
43 posted on 11/01/2018 4:40:17 AM PDT by vannrox (The Preamble to the Bill of Rights - without it, our Bill of Rights is meaningless!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

$45 billion in a $20 trillion economy is 45/20,000
or 9/4,000 or ~1/4 of 1%. Basically a rounding error.
Particularly considering the US onshore growth as we replace cheap sh*t from China.


44 posted on 11/01/2018 8:24:41 AM PDT by grey_whiskers (The opinions are solely those of the author and are subject to change without notice.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

As I reviewed the list of harmonized tariff numbers, the $267 billion was products like air plane tires.

Consumer products did not seem to dominate or even appear on the list.


45 posted on 11/01/2018 8:30:09 AM PDT by bert ((KE. N.P. N.C. +12) Invade Honduras. Provide a military government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: MayflowerMadam

What the heck does that have to do with China?


46 posted on 11/01/2018 8:29:53 PM PDT by dinodino
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 42 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo
I love the smell of import tariffs in the morning...


47 posted on 11/01/2018 8:32:57 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

I consider you a quisling for making money off the backs of the US worker. When you import product from the third world you are importing their standard of living. In this case lost opportunity and quality of life is pushing decent Americans into the Democrat camp for no good reason except for you to make a buck.


48 posted on 11/01/2018 8:36:59 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: DeweyCA

He’s a traitor.


49 posted on 11/01/2018 8:37:36 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

If we get into a shooting war with China all of you Free Traitors™ are fair game.


50 posted on 11/01/2018 8:39:08 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

China’s ghost cities are metaphor for their fake economy.


51 posted on 11/01/2018 8:41:57 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

After re-reading, I think I may have misinterpreted your point, when you said: “China will not react like everyone else is forecasting”.

I interpreted it that they would have surprisingly damaging countermeasures they would enact against the USA.

Now I wonder if you meant simply that the Chinese economy would not be as badly hurt by US tariffs, as many here have speculated.

Its possible they may be able to print more money, and keep their economy stimulated. Time will tell. 2019 will probably reveal if it is serious or not.

One thing I noticed in your analysis (from your link), is that you seemingly discounted the effects of trans-shipments into the American market. In one place you say that the American volume is not such a big part of Chinese exports, and that the high value products go to Japan, Korea and Europe. But elsewhere you point out that much of these products are ultimately shipped into the US market, through the back door.

It is important to note that there has been an unprecedented amount of activity during the Trump Administration, re-negotiating trade deals. NAFTA was re-negotiated after a quarter century. New trade deals were also agreed with the EU, Japan and Korea. Unprecedented. Negotiations on one such deal typically run several years.

One thing is in common with all those deals - new mechanisms to throttle trans-shipments of communist Chinese products into the American market. There was some arm twisting, but overall, folks signed up to this program pretty quick, because of the growing fear of communist aggression, and the consensus that the International community needs to manage this growing threat.

Those trade deals will likely be ratified in the Senate, and go into effect during 2019.


52 posted on 11/01/2018 10:00:31 PM PDT by BeauBo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 24 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo

Yes. What I meant was that the Chinese economy will not be as seriously affected as everyone is speculating.

To really hurt China via tariffs, you would need to halt ALL imports to the United States from everywhere. China is the manufacturer of the world.

More importantly, a renegotiation along the lines of fairness, like what Trump is suggesting would be a welcome solution. Most of the Chinese factories that I work with welcome it.

Why isn’t it implemented?

Because China has other arrangements with other nations that puts high tariffs on inbound American products so that inbound products from Japan, Korea, Germany etc, would have a competitive advantage. That has to end.

But will need to renegotiate with all the other trade partners with China.


53 posted on 11/01/2018 10:15:55 PM PDT by vannrox (The Preamble to the Bill of Rights - without it, our Bill of Rights is meaningless!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 52 | View Replies]

To: vannrox

Just now being reported that President Trump has told his cabinet to start drafting terms for a trade deal with China.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-china-trade-war-trump-reportedly-asks-officials-to-draft-deal.html

Markets will like to hear that.


54 posted on 11/01/2018 11:49:42 PM PDT by BeauBo
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 53 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo

Welcome news. All trade deals must have advantage for America. That’s why I love Trump. No long are trade deals cut with the Clinton’s or Obama walking away with pallet loads of personal cash.


55 posted on 11/02/2018 12:16:46 AM PDT by vannrox (The Preamble to the Bill of Rights - without it, our Bill of Rights is meaningless!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo

“Markets will like to hear that.”
...And I think that’s just why he’s saying it now- for the elections.

I firmly believe he will do what’s neccessary re China. That’ll be easier for him if the Dems don’t get the House majority...

I’m no market advisor, but for what it’s worth my opinion is that no deal is in sight: China just won’t deal unti;l they have to.


56 posted on 11/02/2018 12:23:45 AM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo

[Just now being reported that President Trump has told his cabinet to start drafting terms for a trade deal with China.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-china-trade-war-trump-reportedly-asks-officials-to-draft-deal.html

Markets will like to hear that.]


Call me cynical, but I suspect the last sentence pretty much sums up the President’s intent. No deal is in the offing. Larry Kudlow, the free trade guy in the administration, pretty much confirmed that.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-skid-to-session-lows-as-kudlow-refutes-report-that-trump-asked-for-a-draft-of-a-china-us-trade-pact-2018-11-02


57 posted on 11/02/2018 11:21:23 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (They can have my pitbull when they pry his cold dead jaws off my ass.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 54 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo
It is not a Trade War, it is a Trade Beating.

That's right! This country had had all the cards from the get-go and every President before PDJT failed to see that.

So glad to see President Trump playing hardball with the Chinese. WINNING!!!

58 posted on 11/02/2018 11:23:16 AM PDT by usconservative (When The Ballot Box No Longer Counts, The Ammunition Box Does. (What's In Your Ammo Box?))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: BeauBo

It will not only have an effect on China:

One reason the US economy seems to be booming right now is a surge in imports. Companies are rushing to build inventory ahead of the 25% tariff on Chinese goods that takes effect January 1. Coming on top of usual holiday season stockpiling, it is jamming ports, highways, and warehouses—generating many jobs in the process.

That’s all good right now, but those truck drivers and warehouse workers will no longer be necessary once the shelves are stocked. Working down that inventory will take months, at least, and the resulting slowdown could ease the economy into recession next year.

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Oct_26_2018.pdf


59 posted on 11/04/2018 7:07:35 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: AdmSmith

This newsletter by John Mauldin is as well of interest:
Red Hot China Mailbag

http://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Oct_12_2018.pdf


60 posted on 11/04/2018 7:25:10 AM PST by AdmSmith (GCTGATATGTCTATGATTACTCAT)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 59 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-2021-4041-6061-63 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson