Posted on 11/06/2018 9:50:34 AM PST by TBP
Market is up a little today. Reason to believe the polls are wrong?? Or good reason to sell TODAY! I dunno which
A bit concerned about the high turnout, especially if it’s 2008 in reverse (an anti-vote sentiment). There is a *LOT* of pent up anger at Trump, in addition to tons of money from various wealthy individuals, and that may flip the House.
we could call that the Cherokee blood rally in honor of warren!
The reason polls are flawed is simple. They are not looking for an answer, they are looking to drive a point. That being the change is in the works and it is going our way.
As far as they're conscerned, I/we vote Dem, love Liz Warren, think borders should be open, etc, etc. That HAS to skew their data.
Some liberal woman was parked in the lot with dem candidate signs. I made sure she saw my MAGA hat sitting on the dashboard.
Our listed home phone has been ringing off the hook for a week but we don't answer. Some were robocalls but I imagine some were polls. Not all leave messages.
“How do you fix the flaw of “nobody answers the phone”?”
exactly. when you have to make 27,000 calls to get 457 people to answer your poll, how representative is THAT going to be? ... your sample basically consists of people who are either too stupid to block unwanted calls and lonely people who like to talk to strangers ...
Hope he wins ... bigly.
very creative - I wonder how well that would work? Interesting idea though
There was polling errors back during the Bush years, but they seemed to get those fixed and some of us were surprised by Obama winning. So they got new Errors for Trump, I would expect them to fix them for this round, so while hopeful, I would not be surprised at all if the polls were right. I mean, who knows? Thats all I can really think at this point.
WOW. I bet we have had 10-12 calls per week for the past month. We either lie or hang up.
LOL. Caller ID. Unless I know who’s calling I never - and I mean never - answer. And because we have had untold number of calls in the past 3 to 6 months. Not one pollster got through to consider the four votes in my household.
That.
Tonight we'll learn how persuasive those rigged polls have been.
Amen. Over sampling advanced degrees and using those numbers unweighted is not an accident. It has to be intentional.
I don’t know - or care - what the polls say or don’t say. Here’s what we know:
40% of Americans will vote GOP
40% of Americans will vote Dim
That leaves the mushy, 20% of people who claim to be independent-minded, but, in truth, don’t really know what they believe. Soooo, if the GOP has done a good job of persuading them the economy is roaring, illegal immigration is being dealt with, etc., then they’ll vote GOP.
If, on the other hand, these 20% of mushy folks in the middle believe the sky is falling (despite all the positive news), they’ll vote Dim.
It sounds simple, and it is. I think Trump has done an excellent job getting his message out, but the Dims have the entire mainstream media, archaic as it is. We’ll know soon.
The polls are always geared towards driving public opinion, not reflecting it.
The mediots who commission these polls select those firms that are going to confirm their premise that everyone wants the democRATS to win. So, the methodology reflects the desire to gain the money from those willing to pay.
Very astute observation, FRiend.
“That’s what the cool kids are doing!”
Well, I was a unapologetic history nerd back in the Class of 1975. I looked at the “cool kids” and thought “what a bunch of stuck-up losers.”
In the years following, nothing has changed.
MAGA!
Let’s just say that the market, despite its timely Democrat-benefiting tank job throughout October (reminiscent of September-October of 2008), has absolutely NOT priced in the idea that a bunch of nutjobs will become House committee chairmen in 2019 if the Republicans lose control tonight.
Proof of that statement — which hopefully never happens — will come tomorrow morning before the markets even open. Futures will be pegged at maximum losses, you can book it right now.
OTOH, if Republicans keep the House the market may blast off tomorrow as the fear and uncertainty are gone.
Republicans know we have to get to the poles and vote because we have to beat the corrupt ballot stuffing.
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