Posted on 11/10/2018 12:10:09 PM PST by TexasGurl24
I just want to give everyone a sense of how bad the RCP Senate polls were this election.
Here are the final RCP averages vs the final results in each of the high profile Senate races.
TN - Final RCP Average Blackburn +5.2 Actual Blackburn +10.8 (5.6 Point bias in favor of Democrats.)
OH - Final RCP Average +13.25 Brown Actual Brown +6.4 (6.85 point bias in favor of Democrats.)
MI - Final RCP Average +8.3 Stabenow Actual +6.6 Stabenow (1.7 Point bias for Democrats.)
WV - Final RCP Average +5 Manchin Actual +3.2 Manchin (1.8 point bias in favor of democrats.)
ND - Final RCP Average +9 Cramer Actual +10.8 Cramer (1.8 point bias towards democrats.)
MT - Final RCP Average +3.3 Tester Actual +3.1 Tester (.2 point bias toward Democrats.)
TX - Final RCP Average +6.8 Cruz Actual +2.6 Cruz (4.2 point bias toward GOP.)
MO - Final RCP Average +0.6 Hawley Actual +6.0 Hawley (5.4 point bias toward Democrats.)
AZ - Final RCP Average +1.0 McSally Actual ????
FL - Final RCP Average +2.4 Nelson Actual Scott +0.2 (2.6 Point bias toward Democrats.)
IN - Final RCP Average +0.7 Donnelly Actual Braun +5.9 (6.6 point bias toward Democrats.)
RCP was biased toward the Democrats in almost all of the contested races, except for Arizona and Texas.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Thanks for your research on this...I was hoping someone would do it. That site has become a joke.
GIGO
Let’s save this for 2020.
Not only that, the polls throughout the course are much, much more biased and they set the talking points for the election. They are used to set a narrative. How many house GOP retired because the polls had the having absolutely no chance. If they didn’t retire the GOP would have kept the house rather easily
Real clear.
Real Clear Politics is an average of many polls. However, they also include polls that have been historically very biased toward democrat candidates. The choice to include historically unreliable polls is a deliberate act of bias by Real Clear Politics.
I always thought the RCP polls are stupid...
The metrics of averaging polls is statically dumb.
RCP is not useless, but you can’t look at the bottom line number. First, it is an average, so an outlier poll or some poll that is intended to persuade voters will skew the result. You use the RCP numbers to track trends, especially among particular polling companies. The RCP results showed the move towards the Republicans after the Kavanaugh hearings. They weren’t worth much as a predictor of the election outcome. The heyday of polls is over, they can’t get an accurate sample anymore.
It does seem odd, doesn’t it, that the polls are all off in the same direction.
A poll will.never have the precise margin of the actual results. However, it strains believability that almost all of them predicted a bigger Democrat vote than actually happened...
All the cheating is not finished on some of those races.
I’d say yes, but one qualification for any Republican in 2018 is that they do not accept anything coming from the mainstream media as valid. Republicans that accept the “facts” and narratives as established by the MSM are already useless to us.
Good post. Thanks for doing the work.
The rat polling bias was VERY effective in the case of Ohio. By maintaining Brown’s lead artificially high throughout the campaign season, they kept anyone from paying any attention to it. If it had been known that Brown only had a single digit lead, the Ohio race would have been one of the tossups being closely watched.
With national attention to the race, I believe Renacci could have erased that 6 point deficit.
Were there any Senate races they were far outside the Margin of Error and failed to predict the winner?
“Let’s save this for 2020.”
That’s a commendable thought, but those of us here addicted to polls will be the same ones in 2020 wringing their hands, wetting their pants and having strokes if polls don’t go their way.
Climate change forecasts and polling have much in common.
Florida and Indiana.
I wish that the GOP or a Conservative would fund an advertising campaign to tell Conservative voters to refuse to answer ANY polls.
Think about it like this, scientific polling has to control for variables. The more variables that are thrown into the mix, the more likely the poll would be wrong.
If one could convince a large cohort of voters to refuse to answer any polls, whatsoever, you would have a huge block of unknowns that you couldn’t really account for.
It would prevent anyone from trusting the polls, and would make the polling useless.
Even the campaign itself would interject a variable into the mix that one couldn’t really compensate for.
I’d like to see a grassroots movement like #Walkaway marketed to Conservatives, make it well publicized, and make it clear to the media via the internet that Conservatives simply are going to refuse any polling.
That alone would kill the industry overnight. Nate Silver and his ilk would be gone. We’d have to wait for numbers analysis of real votes.
It would also kill the push polls that the media uses to drive public opinion because once the word got out that one side wasn’t taking part in them, they would be useless.
The unknown is a valuable weapon, and anyone who participates in polls is doing a disservice to our Republic.
ping for reference
In this day and age I think polling is extremely difficult. The people that they are reaching and agree to talk to them may be more likely to be dems I don’t know. Who the heck answers a landline any more?
Are they purposefully skewing the results. Probably. But there is also the fact that there is no accurate polling method available except the ballot box.
The polls and Vegas turds DID predict the dems would win the House and they were right in that regard.
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