Skip to comments.Pollster Who Got It Right in 2016 Does It Again
Posted on 11/12/2018 6:00:23 PM PST by SMGFan
Robert Cahaly, senior strategist for the Trafalgar Group, made a name for himself in 2016 by being the only pollster to correctly show Donald Trump with a lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania -- two key states he carried -- heading into Election Day. (He did not poll Wisconsin, another surprising win for Trump.) Cahaly also showed Trump ahead in North Carolina and Florida, both of which he won, securing his improbable 304-227 Electoral College victory over Hillary Clinton.
Cahaly managed to pick up support for Trump that all other pollsters missed by employing a unique method that sought to measure support from voters who'd been inactive in recent election cycles, as well as adding a question to his surveys designed to isolate the effect of social desirability bias among Trump voters the concept that people wont tell pollsters their true intentions for fear of being stigmatized or being politically incorrect.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
Rush actually mentioned Trafalgar in his show a day before the elections, which showed BOTH De Santis and Scott winning.
“Trafalgar also correctly predicted Senate outcomes in Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, Texas and West Virginia”
Gee, he really went out on a limb there. /s
Did Trafalgar also predict the slimy Marxist attack on the voting results?
Must have known in advance where the DemocRATS were going to target the fraud. Florida is just a distraction to keep the eyes on the shinny object.
Those were actually all tough picks, with the possible exception of North Dakota and Texas.
uh, that FRAUD got within 3 points? In Texas?? Not good.
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