Posted on 11/14/2018 8:35:26 AM PST by yesthatjallen
The never Trumpers were out spoken about their hate for Trump. The Never Trumpers ruined moderates because the Trump voter thought they were just never Trumpers and didn’t bother to vote for them.
One big reason, at least in CA- the SALT limitations.
yeah yeah, we all know the reasoning behind it- make the high tax states pay their share rather than foist it off on everyone by deductions, and the concomitant pressure on statehouses when massive state taxes can’t be completely deducted. Plus a big F.U. to blue states like Ca an NY.... yadda yadda yadda, but it *HURT* people in the red districts of those states; no matter how good the reason, part of this is blowback from people who used to vote republican and just got hit with 15-20 grand thanks to the tax plan.,
Polling is to drive public opinion, not measure it
A lot of polling was wrong, again. Very few polls were remotely accurate this time around.
We should ignore polls and campaign like we are 15 points behind.
Agree; yes, there is ‘fake news’, but there seems also to be a tendency for many conservatives to just call ‘Fake News’ anything they don’t *WANT* to be true.
Any polls the non professionals see is psy-ops. The genuinely accurate ones are closely held data, much like corporate marketing.
The REAL polls can be pretty accurate, but they are usually really specific and entirely about ‘where do we spend our limited campaign funds’? (IOW identify the groups who WILL or WILL NOT vote for you and spend your cash on the ones that haven’t decided). Anything released to the public is for the purpose of either firing up the troops or demoralizing/rendering complacent the oppo.
But as we get closer to the election, the pollsters have to start reporting more accurately since their reputation and credibility (and paycheck) is on the line.
A biased pollster can flaunt their bias early but they have to eventually report the facts as the election approaches or no one will take them seriously.
Not many people really take them seriously. I mean I *worked* as one and trained as one; the polls people see outside of the highest levels of campaigns are as much- or more- psy ops as any actual attempt at prognostication. Especially national ones. A big chunk of what people see are just there to get eyeballs.
It’s really hard to call an election; the people making the decent coin year after year are the ones who tell the candidate or their staff where to spend money.
If I’m managing your campaign for the House; we’ve got $40K for ad buys. How do we spend that? Who will never vote for yesthatjallen even if you raise the dead; who will never vote for your opponent even if you’re caught with both a dead woman and a live boy. Zero reason to spend any money there. Who hasn’t decided- meaning what are their demographics - race, sex, age; what media do they use? That’s where you spend the $$. Most of the rest is just guessing based on half-assed samples and pimped to the highest paying ‘news’ source.
At least that’s the business as *I* worked in it, at a state level, back in the day. You can make way more money behind the scenes with really granular, tactical surveys than splashing about on CNN or SFGATE.
Another really important pollster gig is the research to find which issues matter- more specifically which issues matter to likely voters in key demographics and areas.
A lot of the pollsters you see during the elections actually derive a lot of their income from marketing and public opinion surveys in between elections; Gallup has really moved heavily into deep research for big companies regarding employee satisfaction, for example.
This isn’t fake news at all. The suburban voter never liked Trump but they did like where the GOP was on the issues. In 2016 they might not have liked Trump but they were sick of Obama and wanted his policies reversed. The suburbs held their noses and voted for Trump. After all, the GOP was with them. . .
That is, until the GOP wasn’t. They punted on the issues and the Paul Ryan lead House (I would say purposefully) did NOTHING. Once that happened, the suburban voter left with Trump as a reason to vote for it. To his rural, forgotten person base, that was more than enough reason. But to the suburban coalition voters, that wasn’t going to cut it.
The suburbanites are the rich, well to do cocktail set. They regard Trump as a vulgarian and simply cannot stomach the idea of a Twitter Guy. I know, I live amongst them. Yet, the democrats were able to get their votes not by selling “hate Trump” as many believe, but by harping on, of all things, healthcare. It drove me mad to see advert after advert of the dems harping on pre-existing conditions and the GOP making a mess of healthcare. These ads went totally and completely unanswered. Not one GOP advert saying, “wtf!?!? You democrats and you alone gave us this HC system and now you are trying to pin it on the GOP.”
And therein lies the problem. The suburban voter all too easily falls for the bi-annual democrat “moderate” masquerade party. We can’t win congress without the suburban voters. And we can’t win the Presidency without the coalition of the suburban voters and the forgotten man rural voters.
I would say that Trump should pick up the phone and place a call to Mr. Preibus and get his butt back to the RNC. Ms. McDaniel is over her head. Way the eff over her head.
As for the SALT deduction, this was an issue and a totally unnecessary self-inflicted wound. The GOPe bought into the narrative that they needed to “pay” for the tax cut. This was how they did it. It might have been delicious revenge on the blue states but the GOP forgot that there were VERY RED places in those states that are now, blue. That SALT deduction limitation is hitting who? Yup, the suburbanites who the GOP used to own. Again, showing that the GOP lost the issues.
The fixes are easy. We all know the democrats are not sincere as to where they stand on the issues. One thing that can be done is that the GOP and Trump should immediately push to eliminate the SALT deduction limitations. I can’t tell you how many dems in NJ campaigned heavily on elimination this. But does anyone here really believe that the Democrats will ever support anything that is a tax break?
This all boils down to this. In many races the Democrats masqueraded as moderates. They need to be put on the record asap as being what they are. I don’t know if it will be enough to re-take the House, but I suspect it will go a long way toward making their majority very small.
I worry, however, that the red footholds on the coastal states may be gone forever, especially with the entrenched voter fraud scheme (’found votes’) we are seeing play out across the country.
bump
The GOP and Mr. Trump make a mistake if they make this entire venture totally about Trump. It has to be about the issues. It is a difficult spot for Mr. Trump. He is under personal assault every damn day. His inclination is quite normal to fight back.
But in doing that, it tends to serve as a distraction from the issues. When he focuses on the issues he is powerful and will win back many suburban voters. And if he isn’t the GOP at the local levels better as hell be NOW.
They should be recruiting candidates and doing so asap. They need to be ready to pounce when the democrats do what they are going to do, namely, go far left.
GOP had a bunch of bad candidates.
All politics is still local.
Let the Senate vote on a bill in 2020 to restore the full deductibility of state and local taxes -- with no other changes to the tax code. This is a tax deduction that exclusively benefits wealthy people -- especially those in the swing suburban districts where you and I live. It's almost a 100% certainty that the Democrats in the House will not vote for it (for that very reason) ... and even if they do, we'll end up in 2020 with something nobody thought possible up until a year ago: full SALT deductibility and the higher standard deduction and the elimination of the alternative minimum tax (AMT).
Exactly.
Of all the postings, yours is the closest to reality.
The Republican incumbents who lost were mostly NeverTrumpers.
Two examples: In the House, Virginia 10th incumbent Barbara Comstock has been working against Trump from the day he announced in 2015. She also failed to support conservative candidates on the ballot with her this election, like Senate candidate Corey Stewart.
The result? In this election she got 24,000 fewer REPUBLICAN votes than she got in 2016, even adjusted for lower turnout. A lot of conservatives left that office blank on the ballot.
She cast her lot with the Trump haters, and in return, the Deplorables got their revenge on her. She deserved to lose, and only the establishment RINO Republicans who poured millions into her race are unhappy that she is gone.
The other is Senate incumbent Dean Heller in Nevada. He spent most of his time bad mouthing Trump in 2015, 16, 17, and only hinted at backing Trump as this year’s election approached. Too late, fella - you think we didn’t notice that, in spite of Trump’s later magnanimous endorsement?
And then there’s Paul Ryan. His record of failure on all the promises Republicans made in 2016 turned off a lot of Deplorables who saw that when it came to Congress under Paul Ryan, it didn’t make a dime’s worth of difference on who ran the Congress. We lost a lot of Trump Democrats with that loser Ryan in charge of the House.
Had those Republicans supported Trump and his agenda, they would have gained 20 seats, not lost 40.
And who is the Republican House hope for the future? Ryan acolyte Kevin McCarthy, another hypocritical NeverTrumper at heart.
“. . . part of this is blowback from people who used to vote republican and just got hit with 15-20 grand thanks to the tax plan”
BS
Those people are wealthy mansion owners who never vote Republican, especially in New York and California.
The Trump voters don’t own multimillion dollar homes and were sick of paying up to 35% of these rich liberals local tax burdens.
There were 14 republican districts in CA, more than some states. That’s more than all but 8 states have.
Might have been the ‘right’ thing to do (I think it was), but the right thing has costs.
That’s the best analysis in the end, I think.
A lot of people still feel the job of a house member is to bring home the bacon and take care of constituent’s needs, ideology is secondary.
Am I disappointed with the election? Yes, because why did we lose? If people were sick of Trump, why did he get people to see him this year? The GOP house leadership is part of the problem, so I’m not sure if we can get the districts we lost to flip back.
P>If we can get some people who’ll help Trump, and fight the Socialists (fka Dems) we might get the house back. The minority leadership can’t be another Paul Ryan or any NeverTrumper...
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