“Maybe a part of the Bundeswehr would do OK against them but the other guys - the French, the “Belgians” (whoever they are) etc - will get stomped in a conventional fight.”
You have to be kidding. The Bundeswehr is a sad joke when compared to the French army of today. That is across the board, from the squad level riflemen, to armor, to air forces, up to and including nuclear weapons. The Germans today are deficient no matter what the metric, equipment, discipline, size, recent experience, you name it.
Please point us to any Bundeswehr unit that could even slightly impede a Russian invasion, or could even slightly equal the combat power of France today. It’s not even close.
The Germans are the weak sisters of Europe. As they really should be kept forever.
I generally value your opinion.
But in this case, I’m speaking from personal interaction and observation. The French may have the toys, and they do have some hard characters in the Special Forces, but the actual army itself is...well...French. And Algerian. And African (Senegalese, mainly. More Colonials...).
The Germans in the Bundeswehr...they want to be a German army. But are held back. As you said, “As they really should be kept forever”. So I’m talking about the character of the people. They might not be a big force but in a fight, unrestrained...they would be Germans.
The culture of Germany is much different now by design. Obviously an aristocratic woman with 7 children would not have been possible as a defense minister 70 years ago. And the actual soldiers and officers are acutely aware of the way they have to act towards the world. But behind that...they still have the genetics and the history. They might be outnumbered but that would be a minor difficulty to overcome in a straight up fight.