Election Update: The First Post-Debate Polls Are In! And They’re … Pretty Weird.

Five Thirty Eight ^ | Nate Silver

[Zhang Fei]

SurveyUSA has a new national poll that shows Joe Biden leading with 32 percent of the vote, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent and both Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg at 9 percent. As compared with SurveyUSA’s previous national poll in November, Biden is up 2 percentage points, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is down 2, and Bloomberg is up 6.

While SurveyUSA has seemingly good news for Biden, an Ipsos national poll for Reuters does not. Instead, it has Sanders ahead nationally at 20 percent, followed by Biden at 19, Warren at 12, Bloomberg at 9 and Buttigieg at 6. As compared with the Ipsos/Reuters national poll conducted roughly a week before the debate, Sanders is unchanged, but Biden is down 4 percentage points and Warren is down 3 points.

[Zhang Fei]

Two national polls that show Bloomberg at 9%, up from 6%. Between his relentless ad barrage, and his 1000-strong paid campaign organizers, Bloomberg is making a splash. His signature message to Trump-hating Democrats in the primary? His 20,000 employee firm shows he has the business experience to run the country, his moderate economic policies won't crash the economy, his vast personal fortune will provide the firepower to defeat Trump in the general and his membership in the global warming cult means he will reverse Trump's pro-fossil fuel policies.

[Hostage]

Silver of 538 has no credibility and his poll designs wouldn’t pass Statistics 101.

[SES1066]

So, polling is settled science?

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Nate Silver...that is all you need to know. Being nice, the twisted mind Silver, Sliver in not the brightest bulb in the lamp, when to comes to polling!!!

[ImNotLying]

Can’t wait for the Trump/Biden presidential run. Gonna be fun to watch Trump smear him like an eighteen wheeler running over a frog

[richardtavor]

They are polls. Of course they are weird. The best way to interpret is to figure out what they are pushing. The Deep State Democrats are still “pushing” Biden, no matter what. They are pushing Bloomberg as an alternative, Warren is out. They are all made up polls, designed to “push” their choices. I personally believe that they are jacking these numbers to assure a brokered convention, which Hillary is planning on “swooping down” from above....and claiming the Presidency which she is “owed”...

[EQAndyBuzz]

If Bloomberg were to win and the Republicans take the house, Bloomberg will be impeached on day one of his presidency.

[FrdmLvr]

It depends on what kind of Republicans.

[ncalburt]

So true , The former Daily Koz Gay baseball stat boy is a certified liar .

[wastoute]

In a way. Every media poll you have ever seen oversamples Rats by ten percent. Every single one.

[VanDeKoik]

The Deep State isnt “pushing” anyone, people.

These polls have see-sawed all over the places for weeks. And none of them talk about the state-by-state numbers, where you start to get far different results than some goofy “national” poll.

[outofsalt]

National polling is meaningless except that they are trying to influence the voters in Iowa and NH to accept that slow Joe is viable.

[AU72]

The only suspense is who will be on the ballot in November so Soros voting machine techs can get started working on the fix.

[RonnG]

Tell me what you want and I’ll make you a poll to confirm it.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

his moderate economic policies won't crash the economy
.... and his membership in the global warming cult means he will reverse Trump's pro-fossil fuel policies.

You wrote those two contradictory statements yourself? How about writing "He is a moderate on gun rights and is a member of Gun Grabbers?

[Zhang Fei]

[You wrote those two contradictory statements yourself? How about writing “He is a moderate on gun rights and is a member of Gun Grabbers? ]

---

Bloomberg is an economic moderate, and not just compared to the rest of the Democratic field. He racked up budget surpluses during his 3-term tenure as NYC mayor, without raising taxes - he actually cut them. I don’t like his nanny state policies in general, but he was a pretty effective mayor who kneecapped the public unions. That is why his quest for the Democratic nomination is a long shot. The public unions hate his guts. He is having to take his case directly to Democratic voters, because the public unions are gonna be gunning for him.

No question that for a conservative voter, Trump or any given GOP candidate would be superior to Bloomberg. But if a Democrat were to win the election, Bloomberg would be the least worst Democratic alternative, from an economic standpoint.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Thanks for the reply. I believe that economic health, as well as national security, depends strongly on energy independence. I don't trust Bloomberg at all.

You make a good case that he won't be the nominee. Millions of far left dems hate Trump so much that they won't be satisfied with what they consider a "moderate."

Compared to Bloomberg, Biden on a bad day sounds like the reason for the 25th amendment.

[SunkenCiv]

SurveyUSA has a new national poll that shows Joe Biden leading with 32 percent of the vote, followed by Bernie Sanders at 21 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent and both Pete Buttigieg and Michael Bloomberg at 9 percent. As compared with SurveyUSA’s previous national poll in November, Biden is up 2 percentage points, Sanders is up 4, Warren is down 1, Buttigieg is down 2, and Bloomberg is up 6. While SurveyUSA has seemingly good news for Biden, an Ipsos national poll for Reuters does not...

Bloomberg has one advantage among the Bernie-bots -- when the inevitable defeat of Bernie happens, at least Bloomie won't look like a DNC insider. And Bernie-bots are obviously already comfortable supporting underqualified rich candidates.

[SunkenCiv]

well put.

[Paul R.]

CNN Poll has Bloomie @ 5%.

https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3810071/posts

Who knows....

I think you are right about the unions, tho’.