China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns

BBC ^ | January 25th, 2020 | Unattributed

[null and void]

You’re on!

[usconservative]

I haven’t seen your posts, will take your word for it. We’re both old timers on FR.

[grey_whiskers]

You're confusing two things: one of them is the absolute risk (which you can do apples-to-apples on, when final fatality counts and prevalence are known, after the fact); the other is potential risk -- as in, "we have a clue what percentage of infected people this kills; how spazzed do we have to get in case it spreads"...when the infection rate is not yet known.

And, yes, I agree nailing down the rate of propagation is easier said than done.

In this case we have

a fluid situation

people dying from *likely* sequelae (pneumonia) but either with no testing kits, or no pathognomonic symptoms (e.g. petechiae, for some hemorrhagic fever or other)

a government with both a propensity to lie and reason to downplay.

So, you take your guess...

But the other thing we can do, is to observe the *actions* of the government.

And in this case, they're not lying, sweeping it under the rug, pretending nothing is wrong, and hoping everyone else believes the lie.

They're running around with their hair on fire, trying to keep people from talking about it, and hoping it gets better on its own.

And that part, is what convinces me, to consider higher numbers for the lethality and R0 values.

Thanks for fleshing out your thinking; you do have a systematically sound approach...but as you point out, the collection has to be systematic for that kind of thing to work.

Right now we're still in the Wild, Wild West phase of things...

[Black Agnes]

What’s got me concerned is the chicom government running around: “ when in trouble when in doubt run in circles scream and shout”

Which is 180 degrees out of phase for the chicom leadership.

[boxlunch]

The Chinese kid on the youtube video said the 20-30 year olds are not brainwashed, they just have no power to do anything about their government. He sounded so angry. https://youtu.be/Dfchkx0yqYw

[lupie]

ummm.. if I did, I don’t remember now. Maybe I will tomorrow

[DoodleBob]

THIS is why I decloaked after lurking for 13 years...for a good, healthy exchange of ideas. Thank you.

I absolutely agree that my ex post analysis of prior pandemics may not be too helpful in a Wild West situations where an ex ante assessment may be preferable. The 2008 recession was accompanied by heretofore unseen levels of mortgage defaults - rear-view mirrors are not helpful when traveling in drive. So I admit that if the virus in China turns out to be more contagious but as deadly as Ebola, that's bad.

I also love the way you clearly, cogently laid out how the Chinese govt is responding. I'm with you.

I don't think either of us trust their government. Where we disagree slightly, is whether we watching an Academy Award-winning performance intended to divert attention from something else (maybe their slowing economy) or a raw and truthful but scared sh1tl3ss government response.

I don't think we disagree on humanity's potential to overshoot on hysteria. My Ebola analysis was intended to serve as a sober backtest of the then potential (and, in retrospect, inflated) risk assessment

So we will agree to disagree on what we think is REALLY happening. We can agree that this is something worth watching. And I will say I hope I'm right but not out of pride but because I don't like seeing people die in this manner.

Thanks for listening.

[grey_whiskers]

Hi. About 11 hours later cases have doubled from your number.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

(that said updated 10PM Eastern on Saturday night in the US)

[grey_whiskers]

You don’t know how to do mathematics, or you’re in a hurry.
The % sign stands for the French “per cent” literally “per hundred”.

100% = 1.00
50% = 0.50
10% = 0.10
4%= 0.04
3%=0.03

41/1400 ~0.03 —> 3%

[thesearethetimes...]

BookMark

[gandalftb]

“patient O had never been to the market”
.......................
No way to say who patient 0 is. Incubation times are not precise.
..............
26 of the first 41 and 6 of the first 7 were closely associated with the market.
............
It’s reasonable to say that the market was the likely source. A place where they serve bats that commonly carry a virus closest to the genetics of the Wuhan virus.

[PIF]

Love the insults keep them coming - ad hominem are just peachy

[trebb]

Flu is RO 2-3...here’s hoping the RO for this bug isn’t being underestimated ...

[grey_whiskers]

OK, You know how to do math, so you *were* in a hurry.