China coronavirus spread is accelerating, Xi Jinping warns

BBC ^ | January 25th, 2020 | Unattributed

[Mariner]

The country is facing a "grave situation" Mr Xi told senior officials, according to state television.

The coronavirus has killed at least 41 people and infected some 1,400 since its discovery in the city of Wuhan.

Travel restrictions have already hit several affected cities.

And from Sunday, private vehicles will be banned from central districts of Wuhan, the source of the outbreak.

A second emergency hospital is to be built there within weeks to handle 1,300 new patients, and will be finished in half a month, state newspaper the People's Daily said. It is the second such rapid construction project: work on another 1,000-bed hospital has already begun.

Specialist military medical teams have also been flown into Hubei province, where Wuhan is located.

The urgency reflects concern both within China and elsewhere about the virus which first appeared in December.

[Mariner]

The Chinese government is rational, circumspect and not prone to hyperbole.

Grave means grave.

The RO has been reported anywhere from 1.9 to 3.8.

That's wildfire in high wind.

And "accelerating" is a very bad sign.

[Black Agnes]

For him to admit, publically, (and not through some health department proxy) that there’s a problem...means they (and likely we) are fscked.

At this point there probably isn’t much use in avoiding the disease. Our beloved state department is apparently going to bring back several thousand vectors and we still haven’t stopped incoming flights.

[Mariner]

It’s a stealth virus.
Nearly unstoppable.

[Black Agnes]

Yup.

At this point we can hope that the WHO is wrong about the mortality rate of 4%. That’s Black Swan territory there.

[OKSooner]

RO?

[redgolum]

The Chinese culture is a “Face” culture. You don’t admit anything is wrong until you have to.

For Xi to go in public and say this, means it is logarithmicly worse.

As in I suspect deaths and infections are a log mean or two higher than being stated. You don’t quarantine 56 million people over a few thousand infected.

Guys, we are in something very concerning. No one did this for the Ebola or marburg out breaks. No one did this over SARS.

For a Face culture to openly state this is like the pilot saying “Smoke em if you got em, see you on the ground!” during a flight.

[redgolum]

Long time no FREEP. Remember some of the old disease threads with Mother Abigail.

The first US case was in the clinic my elderly parents and sister go to. The one in Chicago is where my little sister lives.

I wish we still had the farm. Dad and Grandpa had things setup where we could be isolated for a week to two no problem. Now... Well I am going do the best I can.

[MeneMeneTekelUpharsin]

You don’t quarantine 56 million people over a few thousand infected.

True statement of the day.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[null and void]

It’s a stealth virus.
Nearly unstoppable.

Almost as if it were engineered to be...

[pepsionice]

Someone else brought up....the death rate is fairly low. You need some disease or health issue already existing (like COPD or lung disease), to get your chances of death to a high point.

[PghBaldy]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[CondorFlight]

“Our beloved state department is apparently going to bring back several thousand vectors and we still haven’t stopped incoming flights.”

Write your congresscritters; if enough of us complain, they MAY wake up to the fact there is a problem (and it’s not too late to shut ALL our borders for a couple of weeks until we see what is coming down the pike...)

[null and void]

Name her, ping her. Perhaps she’s still around?

[PghBaldy]

Generally, the larger the value of R0, the harder it is to control the epidemic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[Mariner]

Reproductive ratio.
How many a sick person will infect.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number

[LouieFisk]

“Guys, we are in something very concerning. No one did this for the Ebola or marburg out breaks. No one did this over SARS.”
—
Look like something you don’t wanna catch:
https://twitter.com/postapocalyptr/status/1221080415018065921

[setter]

“As in I suspect deaths and infections are a log mean or two higher than being stated.”

The 62 year old doctor who died yesterday was only exposed to the virus 9 days earlier. He came out of retirement That’s fast.

[RushIsMyTeddyBear]

Whew! Not good.

[null and void]

Someone else brought up....the death rate is fairly low.

TECHNICALLY that should read:

the REPORTED death rate is fairly low.