Posted on 02/16/2020 6:53:01 PM PST by BeauBo
Wall Street is convincing itself that China will bounce back relatively quickly around the end of the first quarter, when it expects the coronavirus' spread to be contained.
This is banker delusion. China's economy is growing much more slowly than it was in 2003, when the SARS outbreak hit.
Plus, the financial sector is in much worse shape. It's loaded with debt, and credit conditions are still deteriorating from bailouts last year. This will all make it much harder to fund struggling businesses and local governments.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
“If all goes as expected theyll be back in production Mar 1.”
Fine. That’s not the way to bet.
If the China stock market is up, its only because the government is propping it up.
With over 70 million people quarantined, its going to get much worse before it gets better.
If the China stock market is up, its only because the government is propping it up.
With over 70 million people quarantined, its going to get much worse before it gets better.
Ok. Explain the Spanish Flu:
This is a correct observation. For a government seeking extreme control of its population, then the CV crisis is very useful. China Using Drones in Increasingly Dystopian Ways to Combat Coronavirus Outbreak
What’s bad for China’s economy is good for ours in the long run.
I have wondered if this virus is giving us leverage over China regarding trade negotiations.
This could be very damaging. If major customers are able to set up shop elsewhere, they will leave China permanently.
Well, they’ll have had 2 months to beat the virus.
For the next two weeks they’re instituting drastic measures.
It’s possible for them to succeed.
I’m amazed the CCP has the wealth to prop up the market as much as it has.
Worse times are coming for them- in even the best case.
That would be around 2 billion deaths with today’s population, I think. Ah, nothing to worry about!
I have to admit i’m running a little short on tears for the Chinese.
Over the last five years I have steadily watched as one of my accounts slowly faded away to China, on Friday they informed us they are moving back to sourcing in America.
I picked up an order for 325 chairs and 200 stools that’s valued over 50,000.00, yep i’m a little short on tears at this time.
Rephrase: "The Democrat Party is so effing stupid. When are they going to simply embrace free-market capitalism? What does anyone get out of tyranny? Whats the payoff? I must be missing something."
One of the great wonders of our time. The apparatchiks get rich without working via corruption and being at the top of the party apparatus. The proles get thoroughly screwed with tyranny and despotism. Every mid-level Dem thinks he is going to be in the party inner circle and get rich. But, like pro athletes, very few get into the inner circle.
Why would they stop doing that? They are looking for safe havens for their money outside of Communist China. U.S. real property is still attractive to them for that purpose, maybe even more so with this epidemic and much stronger authoritative communist crackdown.
That Spanish Flu map is amazing considering how little global travel there was in those years (and how slow it was).
World population was about 2 billion in 1920. It's close to 8 billion today. That's 4X growth.
50 million X 4 = 200 million. You are off by an order of magnitude.
Still, 200 million is nothing to sneeze at.
“What does anyone get out of tyranny? Whats the payoff? I must be missing something.”
you are ... it’s really quite simple: the current system of dictatorship is the only thing keeping the current set up elitists in power, whereas they’d be kicked out in a microsecond if there was democracy ... oh, now i see your mistake: you believe that the ruling dictators in china care more for the people than they do for themselves ...
“I have trouble believing the whole world wont be in a recession or worse, very soon.”
that’s exactly what would happen if the chinese supply chain of $2.5 trillion in worldwide exports collapses ... the “or worse” option, actually ...
I guess you haven’t figured out how fast RNA viruses mutate, right?
At the risk of sounding morbid, this looks like the moment where a lot of our debt to China becomes negotiable.
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