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USC-LA County: Antibody Testing Suggests 4% Of LA County Has Had The Virus: "Many Have Been Infected Without Knowing It"
Hotair ^
| 04/20/2020
| John Sexton
Posted on 04/20/2020 4:15:59 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
Earlier this month researchers from the University of Southern Californias Keck School of Medicine set up drive-thru testing sites in six locations around LA County. The researchers used a proprietary database they say is representative of the entire county and gave people an antibody test. What they found is that far more people in LA County have had the virus than are aware of it. The research is unfinished and hasnt been peer reviewed yet but LA County public health published the early results which show that around 4 percent of people have already had the virus:
Based on results of the first round of testing, the research team estimates that approximately 4.1% of the countys adult population has antibody to the virus. Adjusting this estimate for statistical margin of error implies about 2.8% to 5.6% of the countys adult population has antibody to the virus- which translates to approximately 221,000 to 442,000 adults in the county who have had the infection. That estimate is 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed cases of COVID-19 reported to the county by the time of the study in early April. The number of COVID-related deaths in the county has now surpassed 600.
We havent known the true extent of COVID-19 infections in our community because we have only tested people with symptoms, and the availability of tests has been limited, said lead investigator Neeraj Sood, a USC professor of public policy at USC Price School for Public Policy and senior fellow at USC Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics. The estimates also suggest that we might have to recalibrate disease prediction models and rethink public health strategies.
The results have important implications for public health efforts to control the local epidemic.
These results indicate that many persons may have been unknowingly infected and at risk of transmitting the virus to others, said Dr. Barbara Ferrer, director of the L.A. County Department of Public Health. These findings underscore the importance of expanded polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing to diagnose those with infection so they can be isolated and quarantined, while also maintaining the broad social distancing interventions.
Though the results indicate a lower risk of death among those with infection than was previously thought, the number of COVID-related deaths each day continues to mount, highlighting the need for continued vigorous prevention and control efforts, said Dr. Paul Simon, chief science officer at L.A. County Department of Public Health and co-lead on the study.
The press release doesnt do the math but if 4.1% of the county has had the virus, thats roughly 324,000 people whove had it. With a current death toll of 617 as of today that means a death rate of something like .19 percent. Of course it could be higher or lower if you use the higher or lower estimate for how many people have had it.
The good news is that a lot of people may have had this with few if any symptoms. The bad news is that even the best case LA County is only slightly over 5 percent. To achieve herd immunity we probably have to get to 80 to 95 percent. So if we assume around 80 percent needed, and LA County is at 4 percent now, we still have a long way to go. That could mean another 11,000+ deaths and many thousands more hospitalizations before we get there. And if you assume the virus has been spreading in LA for perhaps two months to get us to 4 percent, we may have many months to go before we hit 80% recovered and immune.
Finally, we still dont know how long immunity to COVID lasts. Thats critical because you cant assume that once youve had it youre immune for life. In fact, thats probably not the case. STAT published a piece today about what we know about COVID immunity thus far:
Scientists who have looked at antibodies to other coronaviruses both the common-cold causing foursome and SARS and MERS found they persisted for at least a few years, indicating people were protected from reinfection for at least that long. From then, protection might start to wane, not drop off completely.
The experience with other viruses, including the other coronaviruses, has encouraged what Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch summed up as the educated guess in a recent column in the New York Times: After being infected with SARS-CoV-2, most individuals will have an immune response, some better than others. That response, it may be assumed, will offer some protection over the medium term at least a year and then its effectiveness might decline.
The challenge, as the National Academies report highlighted, is that no one knew about this virus until a few months ago. That means they havent been able to study what happens to people who recover from Covid-19 and if and how long they are protected for more than a short period of time.
One key uncertainty arises from the fact that we are early in this outbreak and survivors from the first weeks of infection in China are, at most, only three months since recovery, the report said.
So while were adding up people whove had COVID as we hope to reach herd immunity, we also have to subtract those whose immunity is waning.
TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; US: California
KEYWORDS: antibodies; coronavirus; infection; lacountry
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To: SeekAndFind
Using 300,000 infected, that translates to .2% death rate. 0.002.
2
posted on
04/20/2020 4:20:31 PM PDT
by
TStro
(/)
To: SeekAndFind
All them sanctuary peeps got the virus. Now that’s really too bad.
3
posted on
04/20/2020 4:22:33 PM PDT
by
Pilgrim's Progress
(http://www.baptistbiblebelievers.com/BYTOPICS/tabid/335/Default.aspx D)
To: SeekAndFind
Its been going around since Mid December so this is not a surprise..it also means that we all survived without the damn city being locked down its been here for MONTHS, just open it back up already!
To: SeekAndFind
Now I’m REALLY confused
Am I supposed to panic or NOT panic.
C’mon MSM, a little help over here!!!
/sarc
5
posted on
04/20/2020 4:30:44 PM PDT
by
Oscar in Batangas
( (January 20, 2017, High Noon. The end of an error.))
To: SeekAndFind
So, just wondering. Can anybody tell me exactly why we have boarded up our country and sent thousands into bankruptcy?
6
posted on
04/20/2020 4:34:14 PM PDT
by
icclearly
To: SeekAndFind
How many were hopitalized out of the 4%.
And what happens if you have 20 times that many? Or 5 times that many hospitalizations?
7
posted on
04/20/2020 4:34:23 PM PDT
by
DannyTN
To: SeekAndFind
Doctors, city officials all think we had a flare of the Wild Virus in Mexico. We had a run on the hospitals, a lot of cough, kids absent from schools. I’ve talked to a lot of people who think this has been around awhile.
To: Sarah Barracuda
I’m really hoping that many of us have antibodies without ever knowing that we’ve been infected.
The only weird symptom I’ve had at all in the past year or so, is that over the past few weeks most foods haven’t tasted right - things I’ve always liked and craved. Almost everything I’ve eaten lately tastes ‘off’, and PUTS me off of finishing it.
It’s probably just a symptom of a very interrupted routine; but I’ve been daydreaming that it’s a symptom of the virus, and I’ve had the damn bug already.
9
posted on
04/20/2020 4:39:22 PM PDT
by
Jamestown1630
("A Republic, if you can keep it.")
To: SeekAndFind
Interesting.
Other places are reporting much higher antibody results.
Still too early to know if these results are valid or are contaminated by poor sample selections, test sensitivity, etc.
Overall, they are encouraging though.
10
posted on
04/20/2020 4:40:54 PM PDT
by
comebacknewt
(Trump trumps Hate)
To: SeekAndFind
What this means is this is not much worse than the flu and there was no reason whatsoever to shut down the Americas economy and imprison the Deplorables.
11
posted on
04/20/2020 4:41:40 PM PDT
by
wmarshalllives3
(Free people always face censorship)
To: Sarah Barracuda
But it also means that if the real CFR is 0.19% Plaquenil will never be able to demonstrate a reduction in mortality as the mortality from just taking Plaquenil is in that range.
12
posted on
04/20/2020 4:42:26 PM PDT
by
wastoute
(Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
To: DannyTN
And what happens if you have 20 times that many? Or 5 times that many hospitalizations? (asked in whiney voice)
Scaremongering without logic is not a good thing.
13
posted on
04/20/2020 4:44:08 PM PDT
by
wmarshalllives3
(Free people always face censorship)
To: SeekAndFind
Re: 4%
So, what explains the MASSIVE difference between the death total in New York state and the West Coast states?
Yes - I get the fact that density is higher in NYC, and that subways are a breeding ground for new infections.
But the number of deaths in New York state is 15X times higher than the number in California, and California has twice the population of New York state!
I have been tracking the data in Washington state, Oregon, and California for more than a month.
In my opinion, there are only two explanations...
(1) The West Coast virus mutated into a more benign strain almost immediately after it wiped out the nursing home in Kirkland, WA.
(2) Or, millions of West Coast residents - NOT just 4% - had some level of immunity to COVID-19 BEFORE it arrived in Kirkland, WA.
To: Jamestown1630
In an article earlier today, the covid virus was made by at lease, splicing a a piece of HIV genetic material into an RNA string
So, Those HIV positive but not having full blown AIDS might have covid immunity. We don’t know what else she put in there but there might be other diseases that produce immunity as well
15
posted on
04/20/2020 4:45:09 PM PDT
by
bert
( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
To: SeekAndFind
Dr. Jay Bhattacharya at Stanford University is also randomly sampling LA County people to see if they had the disease. It will be interesting to see how their results compare. He completed testing in Santa Clara County (San Fran Bay Area to the north), completed the data analysis and reported his results (which were in a FR post).
In this Unknown Knowledge interview he discusses the LA County Testing. His field sampling and data analysis were completed when he gave this interview and he was writing the report. Maybe the testing in this article is his work as he said he had a partner org in LA doing the field work.
The Fight against COVID-19: An Update from Dr. Jay Bhattacharya, interview with Jay Bhattacharya, Friday, April 17, 2020.
To: wmarshalllives3
Scaremongering without logic is not a good thing.I thought most people would be able to follow that logic. But I'll spell it out for you.
4% infected in LA county. 80% needed for herd immunity. That's 20 times. The posted excerpt didn't say how many hospitalizations. So I raised the question. Can LA handle 20 times the hospitalizations they already had.
Or if it doesn't spread too fast. Can they handle 5 times the hospitalizations they already had.
I think 11,000 more deaths in LA county is unacceptable. I'm not a fan of the "Let's get to herd immunity as fast as possible" approach. Especially with a disease that we still know too little about.
17
posted on
04/20/2020 4:51:26 PM PDT
by
DannyTN
To: TStro
41,000 deaths split about evenly between whites and everyone else
Negative oil prices
22 to 30,000,000 unemployed
As OReilly said many of the dead were already on their last legs
This is hardly worth it stop the madness open up America
To: Jamestown1630
I know a few people who are convinced they had it, they want the antibody test..my sisters GYN thinks she got it in December, she was very ill, pneumonia and everything she tested herself for influenza B and it was negative so what was it..corona? My cousin might have had it in mid February, my sisters two neighbors in early January
To: SeekAndFind
Where is the number of tests performed?
20
posted on
04/20/2020 5:00:01 PM PDT
by
LastDayz
(A blunt and brazen Texan. I will not be assimilated.)
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