I just went thru the link sequence. This is what is in the actual CDC report:
The parameters in the scenarios:
Are estimates intended to support public health preparedness and planning.
Are not predictions of the expected effects of COVID-19.
Do not reflect the impact of any behavioral changes, social distancing, or other interventions.
Note the second item. This report is for modelers and planners. It is not a measurement of anything at all. It’s not even a best guess of anything other than what parameters should be in modeling.
This whole “it’s not very serious” stuff needs to start out explaining the single critical info: For essentially every country of the world, over the relevant months, total deaths in countries for these months far exceed the deaths in those countries for the same months historically. And it’s not even close to being the same.
Something is killing a lot of extra people in these months. It’s not likely to be something you would call not serious.
Thanks for looking into that. (Being a traditionalist Freeper I didn’t even read the article).
Those ‘excess deaths’ are a worry.
“It is not a measurement of anything at all.”
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Yup, it’s all just interpretation, the reading in of whatever significance the beholder desires.
That the CDC is now considered the go-to trustworthy and reliable source is an interesting 180 development.
“Something is killing a lot of extra people in these months. It’s not likely to be something you would call not serious.”
If you’re speaking of those in Nursing or other congregant living homes, I would agree. Those over age 70 with comorbidities, I would agree.
Take precautions and take care of yourself.
Everyone else can resume life as normal, and should have done so yesterday!
I really really think that once we look at a whole year of deaths from every source, I pretty much doubt we'll see an extraordinary number of deaths....but it has to be at least a year before we can say there were more deaths...covid killed people that probably would have died within the yr from stroke or cancer or heart attack....
It’s probably not worth the electrons to say it, because this problem ceased to be a rational question some time ago:
That 1.6% of the population over 85 years of age accounts for just over 30% of the deaths, according to CDC publications. A good percentage of those are a result of poor public policy.
Of course this virus has created a spike in deaths. But who, in reality, do those deaths represent? There certainly has been no spike deaths of the population less than 20 years of age, and it’s probably not significant for the population less than 40 years.
The problem here is that our experts have allowed people to believe that all of us are under equal threat. And they have wasted their energy designing policies on that basis, rather than policies to protect the most vulnerable.
Just noticed your successive posts in this thread and that you both have the same, early Freeper membership dates of 26 March 1998 ... ‘the good old days’!!
Owen where did you get the data about global deaths per period, by age?
I am an empirical kinda guy and would love to look through it.
I don't know about all the other countries, but in the United States, outside of NYC, it's been pretty close.
I'm not one that would say this is "not serious". But, are the affects enough to justify this complete lockdown? I don't think so. The economic consequences of that are pretty darn high too.
It's a hard thing to accept that some people are going die, sooner than they should have. But personally, I'd rather take my chances at that, with nature being "the decider" than have politicians and un-elected technocrats making arbitrary decisions on which business and careers "live or die".
And yes, I am in a couple of the "at risk" groups. >60, moderately obese, and taking ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure. I will continue to take all the precautions I can reasonably take. But, my two sons are a extremely low risk.
Thank you, Owen, for injecting a bit of realism here.
I cannot find ANY report from the CDC about the death rate being so incredibly below what actual case and death data shows. Lots of interesting stuff about Covid-19 at the CDC website, but nothing stating that.
I honestly do not know why people have latched onto this narrative that there are vast numbers of asymptomatic cases. If anything, this is a terrible scenario! When someone has symptoms, they can be easily identified and avoided. But if someone has no symptoms, you have no idea who might give you a terrible disease that can cause organ damage and even kill you.
The fact that this spreads from presymptomatic people is bad enough.
Do you have a link to that notion
Man data is so incredibly screwed today
Political rules science today
And when did they all become leftists
Scientists weren’t lefties in my youth
They were nerdy