Dont trust any poll until 48 hrs before the election. At 48 hrs and sooner is when the fake news will be forced to report the truth to save their credibility. The headlines will say “Polls significantly tightening in Battleground states” but what it will mean is “And now here’s the truth we’ve been hiding from you”.
That’s been their MO for over 50 years.
The 48 hour rule was before Trump was elected. I don’t think those rules are applicable anymore.
Year | D June | D Election | % Change |
|
R June | R Election | % Change |
1960 | 50 | 49.7 | -0.3 |
|
46 | 49.6 | +3.6 |
1964 | 76 | 61.1 | -14.9 |
|
20 | 38.5 | +18.5 |
1968 | 42 | 42.7 | +0.7 |
|
37 | 43.4 | +6.4 |
1972 | 37 | 37.5 | +0.5 |
|
53 | 60.7 | +7.7 |
1976 | 53 | 50.1 | -2.9 |
|
36 | 48 | +12.0 |
1980 | 34 | 41 | +7.0 |
|
37 | 50.7 | +13.7 |
1984 | 41 | 40.6 | -0.4 |
|
53 | 58.8 | +5.8 |
1988 | 46 | 45.6 | -0.4 |
|
41 | 53.4 | +12.4 |
1992 | 27 | 43 | +16.0 |
|
33 | 37.4 | +4.4 |
1996 | 49 | 49.2 | +0.2 |
|
33 | 40.7 | +7.7 |
2000 | 38 | 48.4 | +10.4 |
|
50 | 47.9 | -2.1 |
2004 | 47 | 48.3 | +1.3 |
|
48 | 50.7 | +2.7 |
2008 | 45 | 52.9 | +7.9 |
|
45 | 45.7 | +0.7 |
2012 | 48 | 51.1 | +3.1 |
|
43 | 47.2 | +4.2 |
2016 | 42 | 48 | +6.0 |
|
37 | 46.2 | +9.2 |
Average | 45 | 47.3 | +2.3 |
|
40.8 | 47.9 | +7.1 |
Source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_polling_for_United_States_presidential_elections#1988_United_States_presidential_election