Bro it’s fantastic.
Are you the last person to hear that you have to add about 5 point to Trump on polls besides maybe Rasmussen? :)
Many people will not admit they are voting for Trump.
Not on the phone and not even online.
Plus there’s usually some slant in the polling methods.
And if even neither of those are true, it’s July.
I’m guessing a sitting president has been behind many times this early only to surge at the end.
>> I’m guessing a sitting president has been behind many times this early only to surge at the end.
Truman is the best example of that.
We should assume POTUS is in a dog fight and down a couple points until election day. A sense of urgency is the best way to GOTV. Dems thought Hillary was going to win, stayed home because they didn’t like her and she lost.
As one who watches this closely, I concur that oversampling of Ds and the shy Trump vote likely equals a 10 point swing, which flips these 5 point Biden leads unto 5 point deficits.
And that’s even if this poll sampled likely voters, rather than registered voters, which I haven’t checked yet.