2020's Swedish Surprise: Pandemic Fascism Isn't The Answer

Townhall.com ^ | August 1, 2020 | Nicholas Waddy

[DoodleBob]

I have not read, from any original source, that the officials in Sweden are claiming that they've achieved herd immunity. Indeed, in this sloppy bit of reporting from Mr. Waddy, he teases:

There is speculation that, because the disease was allowed to spread more freely among those least vulnerable, Swedes may already benefit from a degree of herd immunity.

You can drive a truck through the weasel words on that sentence. And it's easy to see why...because there isn't any hard evidence to back up his claim.

If you click through to the articles, you'll find The Blaze's reporter breathlessly claim "Sweden's chief epidemiologist now believes his country has achieved herd immunity."

But....not quite...clicking further to the underlying Bloomberg article - where you DO get a quote from Anders Tegnell, Swedend's chief epidemiologist (who I trust a lot more than Fauci and who I think did a decent job of running the show, even if I fundamentally disagree with putting all my eggs into one basket) says "On Tuesday, Tegnell said Sweden “probably” has achieved a fairly high rate of immunity, which he predicts will protect his country from new outbreaks."

This encapsulates the problem in tracking Sweden and Coronavirus - bad reporting and people with agendas. There are lots of people saying that they THINK that has happened - some of whom aren't in Sweden - but when you get an accurate report from Dr. Tegnell or someone in authority, you get nothing like what the talking heads are saying.

It is entirely possible that such a thing has occurred in Sweden, but I doubt it since it's population density isn't anything like that in NYC. I saw a research studying suggesting herd immunity may have been reached in NYC but you have to slog through a lot of models and analysis and theorizing.

[FreeReign]

Tegnell said Sweden “probably” has achieved a fairly high rate of immunity, which he predicts will protect his country from new outbreaks."

The word "probably" means that something is "almost certain". Tegnell is almost certain but not certain. I don't think that anybody is certain yet.

It is entirely possible that such a thing has occurred in Sweden, but I doubt it since it's population density isn't anything like that in NYC.

It took 4 weeks for cases to peak in NYS. It took Sweden about 15 weeks. New York's population density probably caused herd immunity to happen much more quickly than in Sweden. But it doesn't mean that it didn't happen in Sweden.

[FreeReign]

If, as appears MAY be the case, immunity only last for a few months, then there’s no such thing as herd immunity at all.

COVID has been around in the US since at least February.

I don't know of any documented cases in the US of reinfection.

[DoodleBob]

The problem, per se, is that there are a lot of "may" and "could" and "probably" phrases that aren't definitive. Also note Dr. Tegnell is said to have quantified the rate as being "high" which could mean 20% or 50% but not exactly the appx 70-80% you need for 'herd' immunity. I also don't trust the MSM when they don't give me a direct quote from Dr. Tegnell, who has been much-maligned.

My gut tells me that Manhattan is closer to herd immunity than Sweden or even Stockholm, especially since NYC not only "stayed open" longer but had more lax 'controls' than SE.

Probably...

[DoodleBob]

Thank you for comments.

Your one fact is about right: the size-adjusted fatality total for NYS is about 3x higher than that for SE. Of course, NYS got to a US size-equivalent fatality level of 1,000 people four days earlier than SE, so you'd need to time-adjust the figures to line them up; if you do, the proper factor by which NYS is more toxic than SE is 2.94x. So we can round up and yes, of course...the absolute number of size-adjusted fatalities in NYS is much higher than that in SE.

....but I didn't say anything about SE vs NYS's aggregate body count...but thanks for mentioning it...

So, again I said SE was "Cuomo-level efficient in killing the elderly".

If you go to the NYS COVID19 tracker of fatalities by age and then the NYS distribution of population by age, you'll find that as of July 27, 2020, 6,351 people in NYS aged 70-79 died of COVID19 or 25% of total NYS COVID19 deaths yet 6% of NYS's population is in that age bracket. Further, 10,019 or 40% of all COVID19 fatalities came from people aged 80+ while that age bracket makes up 4% of NYS' population. All-in, Cuomo killed 10,019 people 70+ years old with COVID19; they made up 60% of all such fatalities but they only make up 10% of NYS's population.

Turning to Sweden's efficiency in killing the elderly, if you go to "Statistik för bekräftat smittade och avlidna med covid-19, 70 år och äldre" (XLSX). Socialstyrelsen (in Swedish). sheet 'Avlidna – insats – län'., you'll find as of July 27, 2020 that 1,154 people between 70-79yr old in Sweden died of COVID19 or 20% of all COVID19 fatalities in SW. If you cross-reference that with the SE population by age data, you'll find that this age bracket makes up 10% of Sweden. Going further, the 3,838 people 80+ in SE who died of COVID19 accounted for 67% of such fatalities but they make up only 5% of the population. All-in, Sweden killed 4,992 people 70+ years old with COVID19; they made up 88% of all such fatalities but they only make up 15% of NYS's population.

So, net-net-net,

Age Ranges	SE COVID19 Fatalities	SE Population	NYS COVID19 Fatalities	NYS Population
70-79	20%	10%	25%	6%
80+	67%	5%	40%	4%
70+	88%	15%	65%	10%

Cuomo was more efficient at killing the 70-79 population with COVID than SE, but SE looks like a relative killing field on the 80+ segment. Across everyone 70+, SE's COVID19 fatality total as a percentage of all COVID19 fatalities is 22 percentage points higher than that for Cuomo, while the SE population in this bracket is only five percentage points higher than that in NYS.

So yes, I'll say it again...the Swedes were Cuomo-level efficient in killing the elderly - in fact, maybe even MORE efficient.

As for your IQ comment, Fredo is the name ascribed to the Gov's brother, not the Gov.

[Impy]

That sounds, to a mere layman, like a story of success, not failure. And, if the “socialist Swedes” have found a pandemic strategy that works, we have to ask: why are their “progressive” allies around the world afraid to admit it?

Some of the thickest irony you'll ever see.

[USS Alaska]

As for your IQ comment, Fredo is the name ascribed to the Gov's brother, not the Gov.

WOW, equating your IQ to fredo the senior {that's the gubbernor}, fredo jr is the pimp that talks on cnn, really got your goat.

You researched all kinds and matters of stats, and only succeeded in proving that 567/million compared to 1600+/million is about a third or that Sweden is not even close to cuomo's MURDER RATE.

Fredo Sr. ORDERED people with the chi-com virus, back into homes for the aged.

It was murder.

As a Sicilian, we get to call any other dago we want to denigrate for simple mindedness, "Fredo", and both of Mario the Pious' offspring fit that description.

I stand corrected, your IQ is higher than either of the fredo brothers, neither could have done the research that you did to refute a snide remark about your IQ.

You are probably twice as smart as those two dago nitwits, combined.

I apologize.

[GOPsterinMA]

Coronavirus = “V For Vendetta”.

Think about it.

[DoodleBob]

Thank you, no harm no foul.

For the record, let me state that I agree with your sentiment: I think Cuomo should be keelhauled for his elder care policies that effectively guaranteed that homes for the elderly would become de facto morgues. How that man remains free is beyond comprehension.

Actually, what got my goat was the challenge to my efficiency argument, i.e. that NYS killed disproportionately less elderly - either as a proportion of total COVID19 fatalities or relative to that lot's population percentage - than Sweden. As criminally stupid as was NYS in this regard, Sweden somehow managed to equal if not exceed NYS' record. I don't believe Sweden intended to kill off the elderly - from my readings it was just sloppy management though euthanasia is generally legal there and, perhaps, some people in those facilities thought euthanizing the old folks was ok.

I've done an inordinate amount of reading on Sweden's approach to the virus. They got a lot right (i.e. kept schools open for kids 16 and under, let business stay open, etc) and weren't draconian in their social distancing etc. I'd actually like for the US to have a similar approach. But many conservatives, in their zeal to hoist SE on their shoulders, omit Sweden's relatively higher body count, that their economy was still materially impacted (though their dependence on tourism was part of that carnage, and we will see what 2Q GDP looks like soon), that herd immunity was NEVER an explicit goal of this approach, and (most importantly) the fact that Sweden got to their hands-off approach by their "smart people" saying "science" tells them to do this and everyone marched in lockstep. I totally get the desire to champion Sweden's approach, but their "faith in science" and attendant authority bias isn't to be lauded - it may have been right in Coronavirus but it's dead wrong on "green policies" and firearms policy.

As for the Corleone family analogies, I've always said that if Chris Cuomo is Fredo, then Andrew Cuomo is this sibling...:

...excluding GF 3 where she becomes someone to be feared.

[Impy]

There was a prison riot last night, Ware State (GA). 2 guards were stabbed.

All the prisoners had smartphones and lived streamed it on facebook while liberal twitter cheered them on.

[JungleGoat77]

Would knowing the respective population comorbidities help explain the differences?