Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Let’s assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. That’s 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02’s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeff’s R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and… [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as “even” on the Cook scale, meaning it is as “down the middle” as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didn’t exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
| GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
| IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
| IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
| IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
| IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
| IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
| ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
| MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
| MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
| MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
| MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
| NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | ”Big Dan” Rodimer | |
| NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
| NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
| NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
| NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
| NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
| NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
| NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
| NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
| OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
| PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
| PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
| SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
| UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
| VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
| VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
| WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* | |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
| NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
| PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
| TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* | |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, they’re changing the egregiously biased media “Republicans are all white males” narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, there’s a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I don’t inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.
The pages I meant to provide were the Battlegrounds they identified:
House Battlegrounds:
https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._House_battlegrounds,_2020
Senate Battlegrounds:
https://ballotpedia.org/U.S._Senate_battlegrounds,_2020
DONATE NOW for the FINAL STRETCH https://www.michellesteelca.com
Michelle Steel can take back #CA48 which was Dana Rohrabacher’s old seat....
Make Orange County Great Again!!
Yeah, missed it the first time I looked.
You have done an amazing amount of work, here, Coop....with links to all of these candidates web pages.
I encourage EVERYONE to take the time to research this great Take Back The House info.
You can donate to any/each candidate, individually, or....you can donate for ALL candidates if you don’t know about, or have time to research these candidates, here....
https://secure.winred.com/nrcc/directory?sc=winred-directory&exitintent=true
If the GOP can’t flip 17 seats in a presidential election year they will show how wortless they are...again.
Wow, there are over a dozen more races we didn’t give to in your listings.
I have to think about what to do. Maybe just give a little less.
That’s a solid list. Thank you.
If the MI Senate race goes well for John James, the GOP will have as many black Senators as the Dems. (Polling 5pts behind incumbent Peters.)
If Kamala also wins, then the GOP will have more black Senators than the Dems, assuming that she is not replaced with a black person.
Big, beautiful coattails. The most glorious coattails ever. Nobody has ever had coattails like what’s coming. MAGA.
Kamala is NOT black she just calls herself black!!
Twist
did, may give some more (Trump also) I’m in HB so hopefully she will be my new rep.
But the Boilermakers UNION endorsed Trump.
I drive past their union headquarters on Banksville Road and see great big Trump Pence 2020 signs.
Boilermakers have awakened. I hope other union guys in Pittsburgh have awakened as well.
“If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosi’s fist.”
Think of the meltdown. Think of the tears. Siiiiigh.
Took 45 posts for someone to wade in here and be the shell in the egg salad. That was actually longer than I expected.
And you're doing what to help? My guess is absolutely nothing.
The RNC (read: GOP) put Donald Trump into the White House. And the GOP Senate has confirmed a staggering amount of conservative judges, including two to the U.S. Supreme Court (and hopefully a third very soon). Not exactly what I'd call worthless.
Thanks!
I’d love to see a few surprises - that is long term D seats flipping. I mean if it happened in the UK (long held labour flipping to Conservative), it might happen.
Fine, but this time, can we get someone NOT in the mold of Lott, Hassert, Boehner or Ryan?
(Lott of course being a Senator, but still in the mold of which I speak)
Feeling a little bit better? :^)
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