State of the 2020 U.S. House Elections

Various links provided throughout | 10/10/2020 | Coop

[LS]

Am told by sources in SLC that Burgess Owens is up 2-4 in UT-4.

[nathanbedford]

Yes indeed, Coop comforts me the old-fashioned, way by resort to facts and data. He is a rare Freeper.

[Coop]

Coop what do you think of Kim [Klacik] in Baltimore she is working her heart out!! Does she have a chance??

She is working very hard. I get E-mails from her daily. She's raising real money and has some big name endorsements, including Rand Paul. She's running in a very tough district for a Republican, which makes her enthusiasm so much more impressive. I read this tidbit this morning (take it for what it's worth):

4) “Those are votes for Trump that if they come in are going to surprise people because they are the ones who are least expected to support him.” There is even a shy Trump vote in MD-7 (Kim Klacik district) Says Klacik is doing great in the race.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2020/10/10/the-shy-trump-vote-is-bigger-this-year-and-who-they-are-should-shake-democrats-n2577613

But as I mentioned in the original post, her enthusiastic, full-speed, no-holds-barred campaign is going to make people who would normally never consider a Republican take a real look at her. Win or lose, that's good for the GOP and good for America if we are finally seeing the Democrats' stranglehold on urban districts weaken.

[Coop]

Fine, but this time, can we get someone NOT in the mold of Lott, Hassert, Boehner or Ryan?

Let me make a few calls...

[Coop]

I’d love to see a few surprises - that is long term D seats flipping. I mean if it happened in the UK (long held labour flipping to Conservative), it might happen.

That's an excellent point I hadn't even considered.

... shock waves triggered by the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum have translated into a Conservative landslide in England and Wales and disaster for the Labour party.

Dec 2019: Election result signifies realignment of UK politics

[Coop]

Good post, thanks. CA-48 history:

• Trump lost 46.2 - 47.9
• Romney won 54.7 - 43.0
• McCain won 51.0 - 46.0

Daily Kos
If you don't trust Daily Kos, I get it, but they do a very nice job of breaking down presidential vote by CDs. I look at the data and ignore the commentary.

[Coop]

Wow, there are over a dozen more races we didn’t give to in your listings. I have to think about what to do. Maybe just give a little less.

Well, don't put yourselves into the poor house! LOL Thanks for all you're doing, and thanks to you, Jane, laplata, nathan and others for the kind words.

[Coop]

But the Boilermakers UNION endorsed Trump. I drive past their union headquarters on Banksville Road and see great big Trump Pence 2020 signs. Boilermakers have awakened. I hope other union guys in Pittsburgh have awakened as well.

That's a great point. I hadn't heard about the Boilermakers, but all the police and firefighter unions are endorsing Trump. Union members are roughly 50/50, but leadership is almost exclusively Dem. Until now. Not nearly as much union $$ and pavement pounding going for the Dems this election. That affects races lower down the ballot.

[dufekin]

Let me first issue some caveats. House races are notoriously difficult to call, and Democrats may win some sneakers, especially with the wildly popular Joseph Biden in the lead. Democrats also will cheat their way to victory in many areas, so this map may be considerably optimistic. Republicans are reportedly in complete disarray, whereas Democrats are energized and excited because of the prospect of unseating Trump, and they will not stay home in the face of excellent polling like they did last time. (Republicans on this forum tend rather indefatigably enthusiastic despite the surging Democrat sentiment.) Non-campaign spending, not considered here, strongly, even almost exclusively, favors Democrats, and media except a few partisan commentators strongly approve of Democrats and even their terrorist organizations and despise Republicans with unprecedented fervor. Moreover, church attendance, a key indicator of Republican votes, has collapsed staggeringly but unevenly across the country, suggesting mass conversion to atheistic Communism that even this map does not consider.

[Lazamataz]

You’ve made some assertions in your paragraph of text. Not being combative here, genuinely curious: Can you provide references for those assertions?

[laplata]

Well deserved, Coop, and thanks again.

Bottom line: Trump will prevail.

[NFHale]

Some good news...

[Impy]

Besides of course the 2 mangled seats in NC, which of our defense seats worry you the most?

[reasonisfaith]

If good is dumb, evil is dumber.

[AuH2ORepublican]

We’re definitely in trouble in both TX-23 and GA-07, both of which were very close in 2018 and are now open. We have good nominees, and I’m not counting them out by any stretch of the imagination, but they will be our toughest holds.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Yes, the entire city of Pittsburgh is in the PA-18, but the liberal law professor hired by the Democrat Supreme Court of PA made sure to include as many liberal Pittsburgh suburbs in the PA-17 as possible. Lamb had won in a much more Republican district in a very low-turnout special election in 2017 (or maybe it was early 2018), and the judges made sure that his reelection would be essier. But no use crying over splilled milk; we have to support Parnell and send Lamb packing this November.

[Jane Long]

Tony Gonzales - candidate for TX23 was one spotlighted in Dan Crenshaw’s viral MISSION: SAVE TEXAS ad.

Hopefully, he’s picking up some steam. I know nothing about his Dem opponent.

[Coop]

Republicans are reportedly in complete disarray

LOL! In Keith Olbermann's world, I'm sure.

House races are notoriously difficult to call

Why? Incumbents historically win at a 90+% clip.

Republicans on this forum tend rather indefatigably enthusiastic despite the surging Democrat sentiment

Really? So why does the GOP often lead Democrats (the party out of White House power is traditionally more enthused) in enthusiasm this election cycle? Often by double digits? I did find a recent Gallup poll of adults that showed Dems with a lead of 80-75%. But the same poll also says:

Gallup's enthusiasm measure has not been a strong predictor of turnout, historically...

And why does Biden get dozens to a "rally" while Trump has thousands upon thousands? And why is the GOP doing better in voter registration in several key states, if they're unenthused and in disarray?

Assuming you're not a troll, please read this thread and find some positive data to focus on.

[Coop]

Yep. Found it trolling away on another thread.

http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3892713/posts

[Coop]

We’re definitely in trouble in both TX-23 and GA-07, both of which were very close in 2018 and are now open. We have good nominees, and I’m not counting them out by any stretch of the imagination, but they will be our toughest holds.

I agree that Tony Gonzales has a fight to hold TX-23. I think the close races, plus frustration with Trump, made Will Hurd retire. Trump lost TX-23 by 3.2 points.

But why are you worried about retiring Rob Woodall's seat in GA-07? Trump won it by nearly 7 points (51.1 - 44.8), and both McCain and Romney took 60% of the vote there. It has a PVI of R+9. The GOP candidate is a former U.S. Marine and ER doc, Rich McCormick*.