Posted on 10/10/2020 6:27:38 PM PDT by Coop
There are 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. As of today the House make-up consists of 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans, 1 traitor Libertarian (Amash), and 5 vacancies (Republicans: Graves, GA-14; Meadows, NC-11; Ratcliffe, TX-04; Hunter, CA-50; Democrat Lewis, GA-05). Lets assume all the vacant seats remain with their respective parties, and Amash votes with the Democrats. Thats 234 Ds to 201 Rs. The GOP needs a net gain of 17 seats to retire Nancy Pelosi as speaker. All 435 seats are up for re-election every two years, on even years. But only a small percentage are considered competitive. This year Ballotpedia assesses that less than 10% of races are considered battlegrounds.
At the beginning of this year there were 31 Democrats sitting in House districts that Trump won. After witnessing the disgraceful impeachment debacle, NJ-02s Rep. Jeff Van Drew quit his shameful party and joined the GOP. Trump won Jeffs R+1 district by 5 points. So now we have 30 Dems in Trump districts, and only 3 Republicans in districts won by Clinton.
As you look at the chart below, keep in mind that there are other competitive races not on this list. One example is GOP Rep. Don Bacon in NE-02, who barely won in 2016 & 2018 in a slight Trump-leaning district. Tom Kean Jr. is trying to flip NJ-07, a district Hillary won by a point, but that McCain-disciple Romney won by over 6 points in 2012. I am hopeful that readers of this thread will chime in with information on other competitive Congressional races (info on fundraising, voter registration, endorsements, events, and [sigh] okay, even polls). 😊
GOP advantages are the numbers shown below (30 Trump-district Dem seats to defend vs. 3 Clinton-district GOP seats), as well as having Trump on the top of the ticket (unlike 2018 when we lost most of these seats). The GOP disadvantage is most of these Democrats are incumbents and very well funded. There are two open seats (no incumbent) in the below tables: IA-02 and TX-23. GOP candidates running in swing states will benefit from Trump & RNC money & get-out-the-vote operations. Republicans running in states like NJ and NY will need more of their own campaign money & hopefully NRCC funding.
The Cook partisan voting index (PVI) shows how a district leans, right or left, based on previous elections. WI-03 is rated as even on the Cook scale, meaning it is as down the middle as a district can get. R+2 means a district is about two points more Republican than WI-03, and D+7 means a district is about 7 point more Democratic than WI-03. Cook ratings for PA-08 and PA-17 are marked with question marks due to redistricting (these districts didnt exist in this form during the last POTUS election, and I was finding conflicting information).
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State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
AZ-01 | 4 pts | R+2 | Tiffany Shedd | |
GA-06 | 1.5 pts | R+8 | Karen Handel | |
IL-14 | < 4 pts | R+5 | Jim Oberweis | |
IL-17 | 0.7 pts | D+3 | Esther J. King* | |
IA-01 | 3.5 pts | D+1 | Ashley Hinson | |
IA-02 (open) | 4 pts | D+1 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks* | |
IA-03 | 3.5 pts | R+1 | Former Rep. David Young | |
ME-02 | >10 pts | R+2 | Dale Crafts | |
MI-08 | <7 pts | R+4 | Paul Junge | |
MI-11 | >3 pts | R+4 | Eric Esshaki | |
MN-02 | >1 pt | R+2 | Tyler Kistner* | |
MN-07 | <31 pts | R+12 | LtGov Michelle Fischbach | |
NV-03 | 1 pt | R+2 | Big Dan Rodimer | |
NH-01 | 1.6 pts | R+2 | Matt Mowers | |
NJ-03 | >6 pts | R+2 | David Richter | |
NJ-05 | 1 pt | R+3 | Frank Pallotta | |
NJ-11 | <1 pt | R+3 | Rosemary Becchi | |
NM-02 | ~10 pts | R+6 | Yvette Herrell | |
NY-11 | <10 pts | R+3 | Nicole Malliotakis | |
NY-19 | <7 pts | R+2 | Kyle Van De Water* | |
NY-22 | <15 pts | R+6 | Former Rep. Claudia Tenney | |
OK-05 | ~13 pts | R+10 | Stephanie Bice | |
PA-08 | <10 pts | ??? | Jim Bognet | |
PA-17 | 2.6 pts | ??? | Sean Parnell* | |
SC-01 | 13 pts | R+10 | Nancy Mace | |
UT-04 | <7 pts | R+13 | NFL player Burgess Owens | |
VA-02 | 3.4 pts | R+3 | Former Rep. Scott Taylor* | |
VA-07 | 6.5 pts | R+6 | Nick Freitas* | |
WI-03 | 4.5 pts | Even | Derrick Van Orden* |
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State/District | 2016 Trump Margin | Cook Rating | Republican Candidate | |
NY-24 | -3.6 pts | D+3 | Rep. John Katko | |
PA-01 | -2 pts | D+2 | Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick | |
TX-23 (open) | -3.4 pts | R+1 | Tony Gonzales* |
Did you notice all the vibrant female Republican candidates? Not bad for a supposed party of old white men, huh? LOL We also have some exciting black candidates such as Burgess Owens, UT-04, and Kimberly Klacik in MD-07, Latina/Latino contenders and a first generation American by way of Iraq. The GOP also has (at least) two physically handicapped candidates in Dale Crafts (ME-02, above) and Madison Cawthorn, NC-11. Whether these diverse candidates win or lose, theyre changing the egregiously biased media Republicans are all white males narrative. Running on GOP tickets we also have plenty of military veterans, which this veteran thinks we need more of in Congress.
What can you do to help retire Nancy?
Finally, theres a lot of data entry involved in those tables above, plus a few paragraphs. I apologize for any errors and would encourage readers to point them out so I dont inadvertently give folks the wrong information or impression.
If President Trump performs as well as I anticipate this election, I believe his coattails have a good shot of swiping that gavel from Nancy Pelosis fist.
Am told by sources in SLC that Burgess Owens is up 2-4 in UT-4.
She is working very hard. I get E-mails from her daily. She's raising real money and has some big name endorsements, including Rand Paul. She's running in a very tough district for a Republican, which makes her enthusiasm so much more impressive. I read this tidbit this morning (take it for what it's worth):
4) Those are votes for Trump that if they come in are going to surprise people because they are the ones who are least expected to support him. There is even a shy Trump vote in MD-7 (Kim Klacik district) Says Klacik is doing great in the race.
But as I mentioned in the original post, her enthusiastic, full-speed, no-holds-barred campaign is going to make people who would normally never consider a Republican take a real look at her. Win or lose, that's good for the GOP and good for America if we are finally seeing the Democrats' stranglehold on urban districts weaken.
Let me make a few calls...
That's an excellent point I hadn't even considered.
... shock waves triggered by the result of the 2016 Brexit referendum have translated into a Conservative landslide in England and Wales and disaster for the Labour party.
Dec 2019: Election result signifies realignment of UK politics
Daily Kos
If you don't trust Daily Kos, I get it, but they do a very nice job of breaking down presidential vote by CDs. I look at the data and ignore the commentary.
Well, don't put yourselves into the poor house! LOL Thanks for all you're doing, and thanks to you, Jane, laplata, nathan and others for the kind words.
That's a great point. I hadn't heard about the Boilermakers, but all the police and firefighter unions are endorsing Trump. Union members are roughly 50/50, but leadership is almost exclusively Dem. Until now. Not nearly as much union $$ and pavement pounding going for the Dems this election. That affects races lower down the ballot.
You’ve made some assertions in your paragraph of text. Not being combative here, genuinely curious: Can you provide references for those assertions?
Well deserved, Coop, and thanks again.
Bottom line: Trump will prevail.
Some good news...
Besides of course the 2 mangled seats in NC, which of our defense seats worry you the most?
If good is dumb, evil is dumber.
We’re definitely in trouble in both TX-23 and GA-07, both of which were very close in 2018 and are now open. We have good nominees, and I’m not counting them out by any stretch of the imagination, but they will be our toughest holds.
Yes, the entire city of Pittsburgh is in the PA-18, but the liberal law professor hired by the Democrat Supreme Court of PA made sure to include as many liberal Pittsburgh suburbs in the PA-17 as possible. Lamb had won in a much more Republican district in a very low-turnout special election in 2017 (or maybe it was early 2018), and the judges made sure that his reelection would be essier. But no use crying over splilled milk; we have to support Parnell and send Lamb packing this November.
Tony Gonzales - candidate for TX23 was one spotlighted in Dan Crenshaw’s viral MISSION: SAVE TEXAS ad.
Hopefully, he’s picking up some steam. I know nothing about his Dem opponent.
LOL! In Keith Olbermann's world, I'm sure.
House races are notoriously difficult to call
Why? Incumbents historically win at a 90+% clip.
Republicans on this forum tend rather indefatigably enthusiastic despite the surging Democrat sentiment
Really? So why does the GOP often lead Democrats (the party out of White House power is traditionally more enthused) in enthusiasm this election cycle? Often by double digits? I did find a recent Gallup poll of adults that showed Dems with a lead of 80-75%. But the same poll also says:
Gallup's enthusiasm measure has not been a strong predictor of turnout, historically...
And why does Biden get dozens to a "rally" while Trump has thousands upon thousands? And why is the GOP doing better in voter registration in several key states, if they're unenthused and in disarray?
Assuming you're not a troll, please read this thread and find some positive data to focus on.
I agree that Tony Gonzales has a fight to hold TX-23. I think the close races, plus frustration with Trump, made Will Hurd retire. Trump lost TX-23 by 3.2 points.
But why are you worried about retiring Rob Woodall's seat in GA-07? Trump won it by nearly 7 points (51.1 - 44.8), and both McCain and Romney took 60% of the vote there. It has a PVI of R+9. The GOP candidate is a former U.S. Marine and ER doc, Rich McCormick*.
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