Barnes and Baris on the Home Stretch: What are the Odds?

YouTube channel: People's Pundit Daily ^ | 10/26/2020 | Robert Barnes and Rich Baris

[AndyTheBear]

Robert Barnes and Rich Baris discuss public polling down the homestretch ahead of the presidential election.

[AndyTheBear]

Long informative discussion between people who really know elections about how the race is going (4 hours, 44 minutes).

Bottom line: Trump is likely to win.

[Political Junkie Too]

What are the odds?

By my calculations, 64% probability of winning.

-PJ

[dp0622]

How can that be? Nate silver over at 538 has biden’s chances of winning at 116%.

He ran 40,000 scenarios. Now that part isn’t a joke.

But he is

[TECTopcat]

I wwatched whole thing. Barnes put odds of Trump at 75% -to see his wagers go to 1 hour 45 minute mark.

He says these are much more predicitve than msm polls and that Nate Silver NY Times is trying to create a narrative to make it easier to cheat

Barnes says these are more predictive than polls and favor
Trump
Models & data favoring
@realDonaldTrump
as the winner:

1/ Norpoth’s primary model;
2/ Oxford’s GDP model;
3/ Washington primary model;
4/ Voter registration trends;
5/ Enthusiasm gap;
6/ Gallup party affiliation;
7/ Social media activity;
8/ Google searches;
9/ 4-year better off?

[boycott]

I watched much of that yesterday but almost 5 hours is a bit much. Good information but almost 5 hours?

[Political Junkie Too]

Thanks. I'm using www.statespoll.com adjustments to media state polls as input into a probabilistic model.

I get 64% today. That's not far from 75%, and I'm sure it will move towards it as new polls come in.

-PJ

[PGR88]

I’ve only recently been introduced to Robert Barnes. He’s great - incredibly practical and down to earth, but also a legal wizard.

[PlateOfShrimp]

I said this on another thread, but Baris is Teh Dude. I have more respect for his observations and opinions that just about anyone.

[PermaRag]

“5/ Enthusiasm gap;”

I suppose it’s just one factor among many, albeit a highly important one, but I hope these guys are smart enough not to buy in to the BS that just because there’s very little enthusiasm out there among Democrats FOR BIDEN doesn’t mean there isn’t an enormous shitload of enthusiasm among Democrats AGAINST TRUMP.

IOW, how big is this so-called gap really, and who does it actually favor? We can’t know the answer if the only polling question being asked of Biden voters on this topic is “How much do you love Joe Biden?” instead of “How much do you hate Donald Trump?”.

And if these pundits think the level of Democrat (and RINO, and don’t forget to factor in independents) hatred couldn’t possibly approach or exceed our level of support for President Trump then they must be living underground in a bubble.

[CheshireTheCat]

When does Barnes ever get time to practice law?

I clicked on this at a few points to listen to a few seconds here and there. This sounds like it might be interesting. Maybe I will listen to it tomorrow while working.

[AndyTheBear]

And if these pundits think the level of Democrat (and RINO, and don’t forget to factor in independents) hatred couldn’t possibly approach or exceed our level of support for President Trump then they must be living underground in a bubble.

Well it certainly is a long video to watch. Currently I have 10 more minutes to go. I think these guys are the exact opposite of people who are living underground or in a bubble...rather I feel like I am the one in a bubble when I listen to them.

[FLT-bird]

I watched this yesterday. It looks good.

Baris’ polling has had Trump firmly in the lead in Florida and North Carolina. Arizona will be closer but Trump leads there too.

They both agree Trump leads in Pennsylvania but they’re not sure if its enough to make it impossible for Philly to steal it.

[FLT-bird]

Me too. He also does the Viva Frei podcast. He also did an interview with Dave Rubin about a year ago.

[plushaye]

About the Barnes-Baris shows, there’s someone who watches and posts a summary. I posted this yesterday evening on another thread about yesterday’s show:

-

Luckily for me, there’s a person on twitter who watches the Baris shows and writes a summary. Saves 4 hours of viewing on a busy news day like today. Here’s the summary for the show in this twitter thread:

https://twitter.com/Baba9773/status/1320885407182163968

Sounds like Richard Baris PA poll being released tomorrow is going to show Potus in the lead. Robert Barnes is still bullish on Potus winning. “Robert says to bet PDJT winning:
Florida, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, New Hampshire, NE-2, ME-2, margin will be more than 3.5 in Ohio, win margin will be more than 4 in GA and NC, more than 2 in FL”.

NH as well? That’s a rare prediction.

[Treeless Branch]

I’m big fans of both of these guys. Barnes said EXACTLY the OPPOSITE. He said the Dems won’t be able to steal PA or this election. I was shocked when he said that. But he’s a straight shooter.

[PermaRag]

I have not watched the video but I'm sure they're great guys, however regarding that one segment of their analysis -- if they are really pimping some sort of significant "enthusiasm gap", particularly if they contend that those numbers heavily favor Republicans, well.... I hope they're stressing other, more reliable factors in their overall analysis and not leaning too heavy against that "enthusiasm" pillar.

[Treeless Branch]

Barnes’ electoral college map. https://twitter.com/barnes_law/status/1321203983080251395?s=21

[boycott]

I watched this one the other day. Much of the same information but a lot shorter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wf6yr_McIFs&feature=emb_logo

[Political Junkie Too]

This was mine.

-PJ

[CheshireTheCat]

Thanks. I watched this one too.

The five-hour one seems like they discuss county by county what is happening and what to look for.

It really does seem as if it would be interesting and good if one is in wonky mood and wants to be able to impress friends on Tuesday if one is going to hang out and watch election returns with people.