10/28/20: REPs - 2,595,819, DEMs - 2,841,731, lead of 245,912 for DEMs, 41.1% to 37.5%
10/27/20: REPs - 2,383,218, DEMs - 2,685,500, lead of 302,282 for DEMs, 41.8% to 37.0%
10/26/20: REPs - 2,200,418, DEMs - 2,555,072, lead of 354,654 for DEMs, 42.5% to 36.6%
10/25/20: REPs - 2,076,621, DEMs - 2,440,470, lead of 363,849 for DEMs, 42.8% to 36.4%
10/24/20: REPs - 1,899,530, DEMs - 2,289,645, lead of 390,115 for DEMs, 43.3% to 36.0%
10/23/20: REPs - 1,682,849, DEMs - 2,110,366, lead of 427,517 for DEMs, 44.2% to 35.2%
10/22/20: REPs - 1,463,281, DEMs - 1,926,055, lead of 462,774 for DEMs, 45.2% to 34.4%
10/21/20: REPs - 1,221,835, DEMs - 1,708,632, lead of 486,797 for DEMs, 46.5% to 33.2%
10/20/20: REPs - 953,524, DEMs - 1,432,216, lead of 478,692 for DEMs, 47.7% to 31.8%
Our favorite map and spreadsheet:
bycomey’s Florida Map: https://joeisdone.github.io/florida/
southpaw1’s Florida Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18U0IkZTXqGPhqWmK4QGtMO25BqR9RPvB5xPjgiCLQbs/edit#gid=0
In about 45 minutes this morning the GOP IPEV advantage jumped by about 5K. Could be another great day!! I am rooting for +430K by day’s end.
The unanswered QUESTION...
How many DEMOCRATS voted REPUBLICAN?
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The Donkeys needed a 650,000 lead on Election Day. They’re not only not going to get that, at the current rate, they’re going to have a lead of ZERO in about 4 more days.
I am strongly in favor of NOT voting early. It just lets the democrats know how many votes then need to manufacture.
And gives them time to create them before Nov 3
Panhandle counties closing at 3pm vs 7pm today and opening up at 11am tomorrow vs 7am because of hurricane
if we get +48K both days(+54.5 yesterday) without some of them it would be good day IMO
Here is a cry for help from the Jon Ralston blog in Nevada:
Updated, 10 PM, 10/27/20
Remember I told you the pattern has been that the GOP does best on the 10th and 11th day of early in-person voting?
The Tuesday numbers look very much like the Monday numbers — gain of about 5K combined in Washoe and Clark.
Let’s see what the mailbag brings overnight and tomorrow.
Clark firewall could be as low as 67K and statewide lead could be down below 50K. Dems lead in Washoe still a robust 5K, but dropping.
To meet 2016 metrics at end of early voting, Dems would need 54K statewide and 88K in Clark — they are not on track to get either with three days left.
That NYT poll may show 6-point Biden lead, but I doubt the Dems are sleeping well tonight.
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The Dem firewall in Nevada may be breached today in Nevada. So Sad! (Not!). Check Ralston’s blog later this morning.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
It’s down to 240,000 now.... this is amazing.
These Florida and N. Carolina threads contain the best nuggets of electoral analysis on FreeRepublic. I tip my hat for the hard work a deep thought.
PoC