Reading through Ralston’s blog, I have a question about this statement:
” If one million voters turn out in Clark County — and this seems about right — and Biden wins Clark by 10 points (Clinton won it by almost 11), that’s 100,000 votes. “
Why is Clark turnout expected to be 1 million when the total votes for 2016 were about 760k? You have a city that has been shut down for much of the year. I would expect many people to have moved elsewhere in search of work.
Now Republicans are approaching parity in early votes, they’ve shifted the argument to “well, both sides are going to vote in equal numbers on Election Day just like they did for early voting and it comes to independents then.”
I guess it’s possible, but I don’t see the evidence for that at all.