Yesterday was so good, Patriots scored 2 touchdowns on the same drive.
D VBM return rate is 70.4%. Yesterday was 68.1%
R VBM return rate is 67.8%
2.6 point gap. Smallest gap since beginning of election.
We are going to estimate D overall turnout at their VBM return rate on Election Eve morning.
Then assume they add 5 points to that number over last 2 days. Then assume they underperform that number by 5 points with all in person voting (IPEV+ED). [net we estimate all in person voting is 10 points under final VBM percent]
With those calculations we can estimate the size of Trump’s victory in Florida.
Go Trump