Posted on 02/11/2021 1:41:15 AM PST by nickcarraway
The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.
But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.
It's a situation eerily reminiscent of the thousands of buggy and whip companies that were rendered obsolete in the early 20th century.
But now, a section of Wall Street says the situation is a lot more dire than that.
Morgan Stanley has argued that traditional ICE makers are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030.
MS' analyst Adam Jonas says the market may be ascribing zero or even negative value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford and has listed a variety of factors that are likely to transform the companies' once-profitable assets into potentially cash-burning and loss-making businesses.
Pivoting to EVs
Morgan Stanley is hardly alone in its very dim outlook of the traditional auto industry.
A recent survey on institutional investors by the investment firm has revealed that 17% of respondents think ICE technology has no zero or negative value today, while 60% have rated ICE technology as only slightly positive. Just 23% think gasoline and diesel tech still carries a significant positive value. Related: Oil Prices Slip On Large Gasoline Build
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
Currently the electric utilities do not have the infrastructure to support this transition. They may be able to ramp up power plants but the local distribution channels are a huge problem which nobody seems to be addressing.
When is electric going to start paying for the roads? Fuel taxes are a huge part of ICE operating cost and they pay for roads. Electrics are getting a free ride and tax subsidies. That can’t continue.
I know I'll be six feet under before I'd ever buy an EV.
You will be taxed on miles driven. They are already pushing this.
Which is around $13,000 USD. I pay for electricity around $0.10 per KW-Hr . My annual electric bill is $2,500/yr. $13,000 is about 5-6 years worth of electricity. So I would not be breaking even for over half a decade. How long do these panels last?
A rate of 8 or 9 p per kWh is typical here in the US. It's not creeping up as long as we aren't required to do stupid things like get rid of cheap coal electric plants prematurely.
Your numbers are fine and I have no problem with your motivations. What people need to understand is that your grid electric costs are at least 50% higher than the US and you heat with wood heat Those are the the most important facts.
So were going to cap/stop the natural gas production - doubtful.
Morgan Stanley? The first question you should ask yourself when hearing anything from a Wall Street analyst is what is their real motive. Do your own research. Do your own analysis. Big Banks are just out to manipulate gullible old ladies. Yes, you too can be a gullible old lady if you don’t think for yourself. Think for yourself. Don’t get saggy breasts and change your pronoun.
Since you are in Virginia you can assume you get 400 kWh per year per 250W panel. Those will cost you $250 each installed, maybe more. You use 25,000 kWh per year (your numbers). You will need 60 panels. That will cost $15k. The panels will last 15-20 years if there's no damage to them.
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the efficiency is above 60% and it’s also charging the car, then I’ll save even more.
The only fly in the ointment is batteries. Pylontech are good but not cheap. Tesla is bigger but more expensive. The alternative to storage is, sell those unused kilowatts to the power company... For 3p a k. And buy it back at 14p when I need it.
I know a guy who knows a guy who can build a 18kWp battery array for about the same price as expanding my current setup to a 9kWp Pylontech packaged modular battery solution with BMS.
If I had 21kWp of offline storage, and switched to a ToU tariff, I’d buy power in at 9p off-peak in winter, instead of 14p, and I’d still be able to sell the excess for 3p.
Panels: Canadian Solar. The CSU-370MB-AG ones can go up to 481w, have 30/12 year warranties instead of 25/10, and weigh 1.4kg more than the CS3W-41SPs (415w). I did look at other manufacturers. Your mileage may vary.
See, that’s the issue my installer had. He priced everything up as if I’d want 250w panels. It’s far more cost effective to get the newer generation >400w biku ones.
“ Where is all of that electricity going to come from? ”
The woketards think it just comes from the little plug in thingy on the wall.
Forcing your neighbors to pa...
Really? What possible justification could there be for that?
Racketeering?
Saw a video from Scotty Kilmer. Within the 10 minute video he made great observations.
Electric cars run on high voltage. Extreme care and training is required to work on an electric cars so one does not kill himself.
Electric fires are not the same as fuel fires. Firefighters use different techniques to extinguish and electrical fire.
Electrical fires can start due to a short in the battery. When an electrical car is in an accident, or in a chain reaction multi vehicle car accident, the electric cars can spontaneously ignite and burn.
That potential to ignite and burn can happen at any time from the time of the crash, to the tow of the EV to the shop, to storage of the wrecked car.
Just another feature of electrical cars for which no one has developed a solution
Hey... Solyndra built a marvelous facility for Seagate.
-PJ
Not all states have net metering but many do. Your situation is different, the power company is paying you a wholesale market price for your excess power, not full retail price. So you are not being subisidized by your neighbors.
But all of that horse excrement is going to fill the atmosphere with carbon emissions! The truth is, the sky is falling!
No, I think it's full employment for lawyers https://law.lis.virginia.gov/vacode/title56/chapter23/section56-594/
There’s a whole lot of wishful thinking in this article.
Expect the price of electricity to quadruple
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