Posted on 02/11/2021 1:41:15 AM PST by nickcarraway
The average energy investor is by now well aware of the sector's monumental shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Coal-powered power plants have been shuttering at an alarming clip as the price of electricity from natural gas and renewables undercuts them while wind and solar generation continue to gain the ascendancy.
But nowhere has this change been as dramatic as the transport industry, with EV titans such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and NIO Ltd. (NYSE:NIO) now commanding substantially higher valuations than their imposing ICE brethren, General Motors (NYSE:GM) and Ford Motors (NYSE:F). Indeed, the global EV sector now carries a higher valuation than the global ICE sector despite accounting for less than 3% of new vehicle sales in 2020.
It's a situation eerily reminiscent of the thousands of buggy and whip companies that were rendered obsolete in the early 20th century.
But now, a section of Wall Street says the situation is a lot more dire than that.
Morgan Stanley has argued that traditional ICE makers are destined to become money-losers as early as 2030.
MS' analyst Adam Jonas says the market may be ascribing zero or even negative value for ICE-derived revenues at GM and Ford and has listed a variety of factors that are likely to transform the companies' once-profitable assets into potentially cash-burning and loss-making businesses.
Pivoting to EVs
Morgan Stanley is hardly alone in its very dim outlook of the traditional auto industry.
A recent survey on institutional investors by the investment firm has revealed that 17% of respondents think ICE technology has no zero or negative value today, while 60% have rated ICE technology as only slightly positive. Just 23% think gasoline and diesel tech still carries a significant positive value. Related: Oil Prices Slip On Large Gasoline Build
(Excerpt) Read more at oilprice.com ...
But it’s not about carbon footprint for me; with Russian interference in the gas supply and the infrastructure around here being well past it’s best, it’s a no brainer from a “security of supply” perspective.
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I’m of exactly the same view... if I trusted all the guvmints I need to deal with, the infrastructure and the utilities we generally depend on, none of this is something to think much about it.
I’m currently designing and building an ‘off-grid’ place for the reason of ‘having total control over my own resource requirements’. The cost and supply of the utilities have become unacceptably unstable in my opinion... I can point to the proliferation of IWTs as causing about 90% of that. My project is coming along fairly well at the moment... it’s about a 2,000 square foot cabin on the lake and so it’s not my primary home, at least not yet. Once this is done in a year or so, it will be expanded a bit and become the primary place. My background does have elements of both energy and housebuilding and so this isn’t foreign territory.
My approach from the get-go has been simply this… 1. Don’t waste what you have already obtained (example is to insulate well and turn things off when they aren’t used), 2. Get the biggest bang for the buck you can out of what you use (example is to use the dishwasher waste water as a preheat for the hot water system) and 3. Examine carefully the efficiency of every watt and joule used. This leads to the other main reason for doing all this which is a very close second to the primary one of having it all under one’s control… there’s a fun factor to doing this that’s not an insignificant reason why one does the engineering and develops the techniques that make this work.
"The rest of them can use horses. Nothing out there but Trump supporters, anyway." /s
-So were going to cap/stop the natural gas production - doubtful.-
Natural gas is “cheap” because of fracking. Biden has already put the kibosh on it. Its cost will skyrocket.
Sunday, I started a list of items that are made by/with or are connected to the fossil fuel industry.
Am now on page 12.
The syringes used for all the Covid vaccinations are plastic-—how many is that???
You CAN NOT make Glass or steel without very high temps.
Will NOT be provided by wind or solar.
Going to operate a Submarine with solar power???
By 2030 we will be back to the horse and buggy era. Sharpen up on your equestrian skills my FRiends
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Build Back Better: A Bridge to the 1700’s !
You will own nothing, not sure if you’ll be happy.
Raise your hand if you are lining up for an electric car. 😆
Military stocks up on AAA batteries for tanks planes......
Complete news to me that ANY nuclear power plants ares planned or in the process of construction. IIRC, the nuclear power plant near San Diego was shut down.
HOW about roof shingles???
IF I had to wait 30 minutes to gas up any vehicles I own, it would have me remembering Carter’s every other day gas policies.
MY entire bill for last billing cycle for power:
543 KWH for 33 days.
Average less than 16.5 KWH a day...
I have electric clothes dryer.....propane hear with blower fan to distribute—and it is winter here in N Nevada.
Home all day—retired-—lights & TV on. Well for water.
I refill horse water tanks about every 8 days.. in winter...from MY OWN 180’ deep well.
MY power bills do NOT exceed $100 a month.
As for the clouds, it depends on the panels. My best panel is putting out 17 volts, and proportional current (nonlinear). On a clear day it will put on 24 volts. But like I said it is nonlinear and I don't know the calculation (I could look it up). What it means is the power coming out of that panel is a small fraction of the clear day power. It is power, it is charsing the batteries, but it's not a lot. It's the only panel I have a meter on constantly. For the others I would have to find my portable meter which I misplaced.
I owned a log house in N Calif-—2553 sq ft that was ENTIRELY heated with a Lopi wood stove, from Jan 1989 to Dec 2004.
NO backup heat of any kind.
Got below zero many days. NO problems. Private well, etc.
If you are going to live off grid that's the first thing you need to get rid off.
The list is huge.
I am in rural N Nevada. 4 seasons, but not really brutal.
I have 3 refrigerator freezers-—ONE is from NOV 1965 & it still works just fine...
2 upright freezers
dishwasher
Microwave
Maytag Washer -—2 - 3 loads a week
Maytag ELECTRIC dryer—2-3 loads a week
multiple ceiling lights with fans
TV’s on- usually 2 in adjoining rooms
Exterior motion sensor lights
2 computer setups-—one belongs to a client
WELL for water, which means that every drop I use must be pumped up 180 feet or so...I use much more water in summer when hot weather makes more demand on horses.
Garage has florescent lights & Halogen lights.
MY total electric bills for 2020 were $775.01.
Highest was $75.51-—July
Average was $64.58
NO Air Conditioning—NO swamp cooler—ceiling fans only
NO cell phones or items that use ‘chargers’.
OLD IRON for vehicles-—real car & real truck.....
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