“ Volumes to India/China/Asia have skyrocket and will rise even higher in coming months/years.”
Russian oil volumes to China and India have both declined over the past four weeks. The peak in total Russian volume to them appears to have occurred back in May, when they offered discounts in excess of $30 per barrel, and could still get insurance to clear the ports. Purchases for new spot shipments going forward is now classified as a State secret in Russia, where they had previously been openly reported, like other countries.
Volumes to India and China are still reportedly up from last year, but still constitute only a small minority of Russia’s former tanker borne exports. Instead of a week to Rotterdam, those shipments take around two months, requiring ship to ship transfers en route.
Gas is a very different story.. Europe (including Turkey) accounted for about 85% of Russia’ natural gas exports last year. Delivering that product to market depends overwhelmingly on existing pipelines. Only a fraction can physically be diverted to terminal facilities that could liquify it for export. New pipelines to transport that existing production to Indian or Chinese markets would need to be constructed across several time zones, requiring a lot of capital investment and many years.
Most of the natural gas that formerly went to European markets will simply not be transportable to market.
Russian oil/gas exports to the huge Asian markets are only going to keep rising.
In a few years time, Europe will make up only a small percentage of total Russian oil/gas exports.
The demographics are just not in favor of Europe. Their population is too small and its not growing.
Gas is a very different story.. Europe (including Turkey) accounted for about 85% of Russia’ natural gas exports last year. Delivering that product to market depends overwhelmingly on existing pipelines. Only a fraction can physically be diverted to terminal facilities that could liquify it for export. New pipelines to transport that existing production to Indian or Chinese markets would need to be constructed across several time zones, requiring a lot of capital investment and many years.
Look at the longest natural gas pipelines in the world, with the longest in China, built by the Chinese with a length of a massive 5,410 miles. You think the Chinese are going to have a problem building gas pipelines from Russia to China?
West-East Pipeline. Length: 5,410 miles. Start: Xinjiang, China. ...
GASUN Pipeline (planned) Length: 3,100 miles. ...
Yamal-Europe Pipeline. Length: 2,608 miles. ...
Trans-Saharan Pipeline (planned) Length: 2,565 miles. ...
TransCanada Pipeline. Length: 2,005 miles. ...