Not sure if you have reading problems, but I literally mentioned they underestimated Trump. Were you too stupid or too lazy to even finish reading what I wrote? I’ll take the bet, but you have to tell me how many points Qunnipiac is cheating the pill by, and that’s the margin Abbott has to beat.
They underestimated Republicans across the board, not just Trump, and they’ve done it in multiple elections.
In 2016, Quinnipiac had a D bias of +4.2
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/17457289.2018.1441850
In 2020, Quinnipiac had the largest D bias of ANY pollster.
https://costaspanagopoulos.com/files/costas-panagopoulos/files/panagopoulos_2021_psq_poll_accuracy.pdf
It wasn’t limited to Trump. They got things wrong across the board.
Their final poll in Maine had Gideon +12, Collins won by 8.6. That’s a 20 point miss.
Their final poll in Iowa had Ernst +2, she won by 6.6.
Their final poll in Texas had Cornyn +6, he won by 10.
Their other big misses, Georgia November Warnock +19 (it was only +7), McConnell +12 (he won by 19.6), Tie in SC, Graham won by 10.3.
The average miss was nearly double digits ACROSS THE BOARD.
You can stamp your feet all that you want, but you won’t change the data.
But since you were dumb enough to take the bet, I’ll spot you the points.
Abbott wins by at least a 53-43 spread. If he does, you can’t ever post on FR again.