Posted on 09/29/2022 8:20:10 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
He’s right in the sense that the ceiling is lower because the floor is higher. 20 is still too low though.
People need to remember than in 1994 and 2010, the GOP had a much lower floor to start from.
The GOP only had 176 seats going in to 1994 and 179 going into 2010. Hence the wave caused them to pick up a much larger number of seats before they hit the 230ish ceiling from the way the districts are drawn.
In 2014 (which was also a GOP wave year) the GOP only picked up 13 seats, but that was because in 2010, they had picked up so many seats and already had a solid majority.
There is a maximum ceiling due to district lines.
It’s much easier to go from 179 to 230 than it is to go from 230 to 242.
When you start hitting 230, you start to run out of swing districts.
All that said, Rove is wrong. 20 is too low.
20 would put the GOP on 232-233 seats, a solid majority on par with what they had through most of the 90s-00s. The GOP will win more than that. I think they can hit 240.
It’s a pipe dream to think you are going to get to 280 seats. That would require picking off 20+ Biden Districts in deep blue urban areas.
The average swing has been 10-12 points, so a lot of the swing districts will fall, but the deepest Blue seats are out of reach.
Take your whiteboard markers and shove them where the sun don’t shine you commie imposter.
Take your whiteboard markers and shove them where the sun don’t shine you commie imposter.
GOPe and RINOs are doing everything possible to undermine a Republican victory in November.
Im Karl Rove!!! Unless you nominate my kind of candidates, you can’t win. And to prove it, I’ll sabotage you!! See, I told you that you can’t win.
What do you get when you mix Karl Rove, and “The Hill” ?
Absolute pure communism. Rove is also very privy to the vote fraud plan.
I suspect we are already doomed. Demographics is in fact destiny no matter how much the civnatcucks like Rove scream it is notand we are not even remotely the same country we were in 1980.
I have asserted we will never vote our way out of this and I’m more convinced as time passes.
Seems like just yesterday we had that post here on FR- Rove, You Incredible Bastard! Who could have predicted the backstabbing by Bush and company?
We are paying a dear price for letting extreme leftists take over education and indoctrinate the past two or three generations. You can't say we weren't warned again and again.
Congressman A.S. Herlong was a Democrat from Florida and read the communist goals into the Congressional Record in 1963:
17. Get control of the schools. Use them as transmission belts for socialism and current Communist propaganda. Soften the curriculum. Get control of teachers’ associations. Put the party line in textbooks.But he was yet another "Red Scare" purveyor like McCarthy.
It’s heartbreaking to say so, you are correct on all points
These lazy POS's have no desire to be a majority, have accountability to the voters, and have to actually DO anything.
I have diminished expectations that Karl Rove will ever regain relevance to the Republican party.
“I have asserted we will never vote our way out of this and I’m more convinced as time passes”
I agree. We are never going to recover. Maybe our system will be re-built in the future.
They will have a wonderful blueprint to go on:
The Constitution of the United States of America.
Rove either believes it, which is possible, given his self-loathing over having lost the base, or he sees some benefit in downplaying coming House Republican gains.
I suspect both but the motivation is in the latter, as he’s clearly working with McConnell and McCarthy to direct RNC funds away from MAGA candidates. The idea that gains won’t be large would justify not investing in those races.
“Rove hoping for...er, expecting a yada yada.”
Tokyo rove is a phony. He can’t get anyone to listen to him so he says stuff like this.
Someone should ask Tokyo which issue will swing the rodents back to contention.
Download this list of issues WE know Likely voters care about.
Cut and print this list to use in YOUR WAR to save OUR freedom.
1 Energy Policy 87% Concerned, 54% very concerned.
2 Violent Crime 86% Concerned, 61% very concerned.
3 High Gas Prices 86% Concerned, 57% very concerned.
4 Inflation 85% Concerned, 57% very concerned.
5 The Economy 84% Concerned, 55% very concerned.
6 Election Integrity 80% Concerned, 59% very concerned.
7 School Issues 76% Concerned, 58% very concerned.
8 Election Cheating 75% Concerned, 60% very concerned.
9 Illegal immigration 73% Concerned, 45% very concerned.
10 Abortion Rights 70% Concerned, 50% very concerned.
N.B.
Do Not be afraid of the abortion issue.
A survey report just issued by Trafalgar has very encouraging
…numbers that points toward even abortion being a Republican winning issue.
Trafalgar presented two laws on abortion to their respondents.
They asked which one each respondent
supported.
#1 A federal law against abortions after 15 weeks except for rape, incest
… or mother’s health and it prevents states from further restricting abortions.
#2 A federal law that says abortion is a right at any time during
…pregnancy and it prevent states from adding limitations.
The results were very encouraging.
59% support Number ONE
Just 41% support Number TWO
The respondents were
Democrat/communist 39.3%
Republican 35.6%
Independent 25.1%
Men – 46.7%
Women 53.3%
Those who support number one by group:
Asians 63%
Black 41%
Hispanic 64%
White 61%
Republicans 88%
Democrat/communists 18%
Independents 61%
Trafalgar also reported women supported # ONE 53/46
Men supported number ONE 63/37
Likely voters 18 to 24 supported number ONE 55/45
Those 65 and over supported number ONE 59/41.
Nice analysis.
There are 435 members of The House of Representatives so 418 just gets you a majority. Even if Rove is right and we just get to 232 seats that leaves the Dems with 203.
But I like your 240 estimate better. That would make the margin 240 to 195. I mean we could bring Liz Cheney back and not have to worry.
Bottom line for me: Watch the GOP total on election night. Let’s see if we can break your 230 threshold and by how much.
There likely will not be a midterm election unless the Democrats are sure they can steal it.
This makes me feel good, because heis a flaming moron.
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