Posted on 10/28/2022 11:43:19 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Republican Nevada U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt and gubernatorial candidate Joe Lombardo are holding several-point leads over Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Gov. Steve Sisolak (D), a recent poll shows.
Former state Attorney General Laxalt has a 4-point lead over Cortez Masto, 49.8 percent to 45.6 percent, outside the Trafalgar Group’s ±2.9 percent margin of error. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo has a 7-point lead over incumbent Gov. Sisolak 50.9 percent to 44.1 percent, the survey shows.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Needs to be at least 8% for safety.......................
If you go back for the last few cycles, the public senate polls on average underestimated Republican performance by 5-7%.
So, if this holds in Nevada, Laxalt is sitting fat. Hard to tell with the governor’s race. This doesn’t account for a very effective Democrat ground game in Las Vegas, which is probably worth a few percentage points in the wrong direction.
It’s looking good though. Arizona could be a long-shot win as well, though the problems in Maricopa county with ballot integrity are a big risk.
If those seats flip though Trump will be unstoppable.
Laxalt is a good man!!
Paul Laxalt was a great senator. Hoping for more of the same from Adam.
The early vote shows that young voters are not turning out.
A little statistical correction on reporting poll numbers:
Contrary to popular belief, a 4.2% lead is NOT AT ALL outside a 2.9% margin of error. The margin of error means EACH poll answer can be off by 2.9%.
So if Laxalt has 49.8%, he could have as much as 52.7% or as little as 46.9%. If Lombardo has 45.6%, he could have as much as 48.5%, or as little as 42.7%. In fact, if Laxalt’s share is near the edge of the margin of error, it’s quite likely that Lombardo’s is in the opposite direction.
So Laxalt could be winning 52.7 to 42.7 — TEN POINTS!!! But he could also be losing 46.9 to 48.5!!!
This sort of statistical mistake makes honest pollsters look like liars... and also helps the dishonest pollsters cherry-pick data so they can correctly point to data that says what they want it to say.
Feeling more like 2010 every day. That means Congress, statehouses, dogcatchers -- an absolute repudiation of the Puppet-State Installation of Joe Biden; and an absolute unforgiving approach to anyone who participated in the first Andropovization of the United States.
To GOD’S EARS
But Schumer assured Biden on that runway the Dems are “picking up steam” in NV.
Maybe he was referring to getting the steal in order.
Hopefully the young voters that are voting are the Republicans...they do exist.
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