High mortgage rates weaken home prices for sixth straight month

The Hill ^ | 02-28-2023 | ADAM BARNES

[ChicagoConservative27]

Home prices fell for the sixth straight month in December as high mortgage rates damped buyer demand, according to data released Tuesday.

New S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index data released Tuesday showed prices falling nationally by 0.3 percent in December from the previous month after season adjustments. But prices were still higher than at the same time a year earlier, posting non-seasonally adjusted increase of 5.8 percent.

“Home prices fell again in December, but levels are still higher than a year ago. Buyers and sellers ended the year on a discouraging note, with sales declining as mortgage rates soared, new listings sputtered out and active inventory pooled up as homes stayed on the market longer,” Zillow senior economist Nicole Bachaud said in a statement.

[ChicagoConservative27]

It is 1978 all over again

[TexasFreeper2009]

All of our grandparents got rich from what happened to their homes prices in 1978 though.

If you already own a home, you are about to get rich. If you don’t... you are about to fall so far behind you will never catch up this time.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

Thank you, Senile Joe.

[bort]

If you already own a home, you are about to get rich. If you don’t... you are about to fall so far behind you will never catch up this time.
_________________________________________________
Please expand on this thought. What do you mean?

[TomGuy]

Sounds ominous, except that a 5%-6% interest/mortgage rate was historically considered 'the norm' going into the Carter years and 8%-10% was 'the norm' until the GWB real estate crisis that shrank interest/mortgage rates to historically low levels.

1920-34 near 6% mortgage average¹
1935-45 just under 4.5% mortgage average¹
1960 - 5.1% mortgage average²
1971 - 7.3% mortgage average¹
1980 - 13.7% mortgage average²
1981 - 16.6% to 18.45% mortgage average²
1990 - 10.1% mortgage average²
2000 - 8.1% mortgage average²
2010 - 4.7% mortgage average²
2020 - 3.1% mortgage average²

sources:

¹Mortgage Rate History: Check Out These Charts from the Early 1900s

²Here's how much home prices have risen since 1950

[adorno]

If you already own a home, you are about to get rich.

It works the other way too.

If you own a home and prices in the area and state go up, your home insurance will also go up accordingly, and your real estate taxes will also go up accordingly. My home insurance has gone up some $300 for the year, and R/E taxes have also gone up by about $400 per year.

Plus, your 'rich' gains are only possible if you sell while home prices are up, but, if they fall (like they did after the housing crash of 2008-2009), your gains are minimal or none or negative.
I know from personal experience.

[rellic]

“If you already own a home, you are about to get rich”.
I own a home to have a place to live.
So I can make 1000% on my original investment, I still need a place to live and all the surrounding properties have inflated at the same rate.
only real estate people get rich.
Full disclosure; I have two very successful aunts who did very well selling real estate.

[Eleutheria5]

Any streakers yet?

[Eleutheria5]

If you live in the suburbs, you will have a new housing project next door to drive your home values down.

[TexasFreeper2009]

think about what happened with my of our grandparents.

They owned very affordable house just outside of the major cites back in the 50’s and 60’s. The cities grew and swallowed up those areas and what were once affordable homes way outside of town, ended up being near the center of much larger cities. THEN inflation kicked in and those little $10,000 homes eventually swelled in value to be worth millions when our grandparents eventually sold them over the last 10-20 years.

If you already own your home today and were to hold onto it for the next 40 years or so, you could easily expect it to be worth at least 20 times its value today.

[RckyRaCoCo]

Are websites like Zillow, etc. over-estimating property values?

Because values in my area are still showing ridicules "Zestimate's"...no sign of dropping, and these properties (condos) tend to drop the earliest and most during economic downturns.

[taxpayerfatigue]

You are so correct about escalating insurance and property tax rates. And once these higher rates go into effect, they almost always remain in place, even if the value of your property goes down the drain. The way government (state, federal and local) and insurance providers operate, there’s no way an individual homeowner can get “rich”.

[Nifster]

Zillow based their estimates on recent comp sales

[woodbutcher1963]

There is a “work force housing” subdivision going in about a mile south of my current house in southern NH. It is in the next town south of mine. They are building 32 duplexes. All will have 2-3 bedrooms.

The people in the town all voted against it. However, there is a new state law that was passed and the local planning board couldn’t do anything about it. IF it had been a 55+ community everyone would have been in favor of it. Retirement housing is in huge demand. Plus, that type of property does not add another 50+ kids to the local schools. Which has a big impact on the real estate taxes.

[woodbutcher1963]

“1981 - 16.6% to 18.45% mortgage average”

This was back when you opened a savings account they gave you a free small appliance.
Money Market accounts were paying 16-17%.

I bought my first house in 1990. 10.375% mortgage rate. Within a few years I had refinanced it down to 6.75% and was happy about that.
My current house was purchased in 2012. 15 year mortgage 2.375%. I paid it off a year or so ago because the payment was about 80% principal.

[6ppc]

Yeah...I was getting 15%+ on a money market. Bought 1st house in 1979. Rates were 10%+. Found a VA loan equity buy at 7%.