I actually don’t think there would be an armed response to a state seceding.
People no longer really believe in the Union. Particularly people on the left who has spend the last hundred years attack the USA as an institution, I don’t think there’s much will to preserve it.
you are probably right, and the left would just as soon as see texans leave, but their energy policies would be too harmful to allow, and the feds would move to crush them and those oil well fellas.