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Who is leading in the key battlground states?
fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 04/29/2023

Posted on 04/29/2023 2:35:30 PM PDT by Drew68

Most recent battleground state polls from fivethirtyeight.com

Arizona:

Biden 45% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 48% -- Biden 42%

Georgia:

Biden 44% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 47% -- Biden 46%

North Carolina:

Biden 45% -- Trump 43%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Nevada:

Biden 46% -- Trump 45%
DeSantis 44% -- Biden 41%

Michigan:

Biden 45% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 43%

Pennsylvania:

Biden 46% -- Trump 42%
DeSantis 45% -- Biden 42%

Wisconsin:

Biden 47% -- Trump 44%
DeSantis 46% -- Biden 46%

Virginia:

Biden 47% -- Trump 46%
DeSantis48% Biden 43%


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 0001fantasynumbers; 2024; allcheatstates; battleground; battlground; biden; desantis; donatedonaldtrump; donatetrump; fakenews; fakepolls; trump
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To: Drew68
"Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance"

FiveThrityEight Nov. 3rd 2020

21 posted on 04/29/2023 3:00:09 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Drew68

Maybe Desanctimonius can commission a poll where he is up by 45pts?


22 posted on 04/29/2023 3:01:06 PM PDT by wiseprince (Me,)
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To: DaxtonBrown

> A year from now we will be in a depression… <

And that’s why these polls - while interesting - mean nothing.

2024 is going to be a mess. But will it be a big enough mess to wake up any mindless Democrat voters? No one can say today.


23 posted on 04/29/2023 3:02:08 PM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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To: Governor Dinwiddie

Those polls are generated by Senator McConnell who is in cahoots with Biden and Harris. They are trying to get Asa through the side door. Its as plain as day!


24 posted on 04/29/2023 3:03:18 PM PDT by EliRoom8
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To: Drew68

I trust the polls as much as I trust Joe Biden

I don’t care if they say my guy is winning. Polling is now about the outcome not the truth.


25 posted on 04/29/2023 3:03:30 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: Jim W N

You only trust the ones that say trump is pounding everyone else.

That’s not how it works.

They are all garbage


26 posted on 04/29/2023 3:05:40 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: Drew68

All of these polls show that, at this moment, the general election polls are statistically ties.


27 posted on 04/29/2023 3:06:48 PM PDT by Trump_Triumphant ("Our hearts are restless, Oh Lord, until they rest in thee"- St. Augustine)
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To: Leaning Right

Democrats proved in 2020 they don’t need democrats to vote. They can just vote for them.


28 posted on 04/29/2023 3:07:22 PM PDT by cableguymn
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To: Drew68

“Make of it what you will.”

I’m surprised that all of the margins are 3 percent or less.

I’m pleasantly surprised that Trump is doing that well against Biden.

Too much can change between the poll and the election for the poll to be predictive.


29 posted on 04/29/2023 3:08:26 PM PDT by cymbeline
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To: Drew68

Is this poll from before or after Nate Silver was fired from Disney (who kept the 538 site)?

Not that 538 had a great track record even when Silver was at the helm, I was just curious.


30 posted on 04/29/2023 3:08:46 PM PDT by CFW (old and retired)
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To: Drew68

So seems like the Dems are afraid of Trump and would rather have Brandon run against Desani


31 posted on 04/29/2023 3:09:30 PM PDT by Nashcash
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To: If You Want It Fixed - Fix It
Trump should throw in the towel. America is done....he lost to an eggplant once, he will again. It’s the people. More misery is needed/wanted.

I'm not going to argue there.

I'm unapologetically pro-DeSantis and will continue to be so until he's either out of the race or does something so egregiously stupid that I can no longer in good conscience support him, at which point I will sit on the sidelines and commit my vote to whichever candidate wins the GOP nomination.

This being said, even if DeSantis wins the nomination, which is unlikely, I'd give him at best a 25% chance of winning the presidency (which is 25% more than I'd give Trump, the likely GOP nominee).

The problem is demographics. Republicans have lost the demographic war. The Democrats have a lock on all minority voters, college-educated whites, single women, and Gen-Z.

They wake up on the morning of Election Day with 257 Electoral Votes already in the bag. This is a tough obstacle to overcome.

32 posted on 04/29/2023 3:12:37 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024. A real conservative.)
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To: CFW
Is this poll from before or after Nate Silver was fired from Disney (who kept the 538 site)?

Different polls. Different dates. Some are recent, others are old.

I used only the most recent poll for each state.

33 posted on 04/29/2023 3:14:33 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024. A real conservative.)
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To: Drew68

Meaningless poll. One has to be running to make poll worthwhile. Is this the one of the pollsters who predicted landslide for Hillary?


34 posted on 04/29/2023 3:19:25 PM PDT by entropy12 (Food is most popular anxiety drug, exercise is the least popular.)
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To: Nashcash
So seems like the Dems are afraid of Trump and would rather have Brandon run against Desantis

Not at all.

The Democrat strategy right now is Trump vs. Biden because it serves two purposes. One, they believe Biden can again beat Trump, as he did before. It also allows them to run an "anti-MAGA" campaign as you can clearly see by Biden's announcement video. They want Trump, J6, etc. in the spotlight.

Two, if Trump is the nominee, they're under much less pressure to replace Biden in the primaries. The last thing they want is a bloody primary battle against an incumbent president. They remember all too well Carter's re-election campaign being mortally wounded by Ted Kennedy before Ronald Reagan stepped in and delivered the death blow.

If someone other that Trump wins the GOP primary, this throws their entire strategy into disarray.

35 posted on 04/29/2023 3:19:35 PM PDT by Drew68 (Ron DeSantis for President 2024. A real conservative.)
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To: Nashcash

Brandon versus meatball?


36 posted on 04/29/2023 3:20:35 PM PDT by entropy12 (Food is most popular anxiety drug, exercise is the least popular.)
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To: Drew68

LOL!!🤡🤡🤡🤡


37 posted on 04/29/2023 3:21:01 PM PDT by MotorCityBuck (Keep the change, you filthy animal! )
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To: Drew68

I think what some people on our side don’t comprehend is that there are millions of voters in this country who think Biden has done a terrible job and in normal times would vote against him but they’ll re-elect him if he runs against Trump because they’ve been brainwashed/conditioned to fear and loathe DJT so much they don’t view it as a choice anymore. Elections today are won by whoever can get voters to fear the other side more. Trump is a gift to Democrats in that regard.


38 posted on 04/29/2023 3:21:21 PM PDT by sam_whiskey (Peace through Strength. )
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To: Drew68

DeSantis is not a candidate for POTUS 2024.


39 posted on 04/29/2023 3:21:41 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Truth is not hate speech.)
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To: cableguymn

There’s got to be a point where a GOP presidential candidate could do so well that he/she overcomes the fraud, and wins.

Some folks here think the GOP candidate needs to be ahead by 3% or more in the battleground states. I think that’s way too low. Maybe 8%?

That’s an awfully high hurdle. Perhaps it can only be reached if the media comes clean, and starts to report Democrat disasters honestly. That’s darn unlikely.


40 posted on 04/29/2023 3:21:48 PM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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