Posted on 03/28/2024 9:28:32 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Over the last few weeks, I’ve received messages from friends, many of whom were concerned about Senator Cruz and the 2024 election. Well, a new poll confirms that Mr. Cruz will win. This is from Marist: Cruz 51, Allred 45. By the way, the RCP average is Cruz +7.3, and no poll has shown Allred over 45.
Honestly, this race reminds me a bit of the Abbott versus O’Rourke contest in 2022. What I mean is that O’Rourke spent most of the campaign under 45%. I don’t think that Cruz will win by 11 points like Abbott, but 7-8 is more realistic.
Why is 2024 going to be different from 2018?
First, Allred will not create Beto’s excitement. It was crazy around here in 2018, from a Beto office on every street corner, to his brochures flooding your mailbox, to an avalanche of phone messages. Beto was everywhere, and Allred is not.
Second, President Trump will be on the ballot; he is +8.8 in the latest RCP average. On the other hand, there is zero, and I mean minus zero, excitement for Joe Biden. Just ask Democrats!
Third, the Democrats need to protect their one-seat majority. They start the night at 50-50 because West Virginia is gone. Maryland may surprise them. There are tough fights in Montana, Ohio, and others. In other words, do Democrats want to spend money on another blue Texas fantasy, or would they rather save their current senators? I don’t know but they ain’t winning Texas.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
The battle with O’Rourke was poisoned with massive election fraud, even in Texas.
There are plenty of poll workers who despised Cruz enough to “bend the rules” for Beta.
Cruz is less likely to win than Cornyn.
As a leader, Cruz accumulates enemies, even among conservatives who would (or should) otherwise be his most loyal supporters.
Cornyn is nothing. He does nothing, leads nothing. But that’s something, because it means he has no enemies.
So Cornyn can do what Cruz cannot: He can unite the conservative vote who will always vote for him(Cornyn) meanwhile also gaining all of the non-conservative republican vote.
Cruz will guaranteed lose some of the conservative vote, and some of the McCain republican vote.
That’s the harsh reality of being a true conservative.
My own words: “As a leader, Cruz accumulates enemies, even among conservatives who would (or should) otherwise be his most loyal supporters.”
I meant to add to this at the moment:
When Cruz leads, some conservatives may think he didn’t go far enough, but others will think he should just stick to economics or some other single-issue driver(many times, crucially important) that means they will not, in the end, come out and support or even come out and vote for him.
That’s why Cornyn in the end would be said to be more electable than Cruz. Even in one of the most conservative states in the union.
I hate it. Cruz should always win more than Cornyn does. Cruz is by far, without question, clearly more conservative than Cornyn. But that’s not the reality.
Cornyn is the safer bet for winning future elections. I know that’s where I would put my money if this were a bet and I wanted to win the bet.
People are just kidding themselves if they thing Texas is not purplifying, and that Cruz can’t be beat.
Ted got some 1.2 million more votes in the primary, compared to Allred. But he could be unseated in November because TX is full of liberal (and some conservative) transplants. Houston is notoriously corrupt in voting practices.
I’m nervous about Cruz’s chances this coming election. All I see in the media is how terrible Cruz is as a person.
Allred will win the major urban areas and it will be up to the rural voters to keep Ted in office.
Allred will probably be a stronger candidate than Irish Bob the fake Mexican. He is less likely to have photos in a dress, videos falling off a skateboard, or just say something really stupid.
Of course Allred is in the space program. He occupies space, and does nothing else useful. What notable legislation did he get passed? Maybe a proclamation honoring
Ted Cruz should be able to win this, but sadly there’s a of of dems in this State.
Dems are a full blue wall in Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, and El Paso. They are formidable even though they haven’t won statewide since 1998 or so.
Cornyn said 2020 was his last. If he becomes leader of the Pubs in the Senate that may change, but I think Texans are savvy enough now that he could be primaried.
Just like Trump and Desantis.
Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) is one of the most conservative members of the U.S. senate. I hope he continues to win. I also hope his detractors have a lot of sleepless nights.
The problem with Texas is that Dallas, Fort Worth, San Antonio, Houston, and El Paso have people seeing who votes and does not vote and then counting the ballots allegedly cast.
In the primary election, the DA for Harris County (Houston) was told she had already voted and was turned away. How did that happen? You only need to watch the poll watchers to figure that one out.
Possible but unlikely, I’m out and about a lot and more than half the transplants who have migrated here are conservatives who were fleeing CA/NY and parts of the Midwest and are quite enthusiastic about keeping Texas as it is
It was but the hispanic vote is trending to the right hard and fast and suspect they will be one of the most solid conservative voting blocks here within 10-15 years
That's a stretch, but I won't totally discount it. Especially by the time the election rolls around.
"Confirms"?
"Will win"?
What kind of wishful-thinking drivel is this? In any race that isn't a landslide -- and this one is not -- polls don't "confirm" anything and sure as hell don't guarantee anything like "Cruz WILL WIN".
This isn't 2018, Allred is a celebrity media darling but a functional illiterate, and it's hard to imagine so many tickets being split that Trump wins Texas but Cruz loses it.
Texas IS rapidly "purpling", as anyone can see. Trump won it in 2020 by only 5.6% after getting a 9.0% margin in 2016 -- even as in 2020 he did much better with rural Hispanics than expected, yet still had a net loss of about 175,000 votes.
Current and historical election results for Texas
Yeah of course "vote fraud" explains ANY outcome or movement that somebody doesn't like, but a look at the facts shows that Texas' demographics have been deteriorating (and that was even BEFORE the current invasion). Texas' status as a "solid red" state lasted about 20 years, from the mid-1990s through the mid-2010s.
The major metro areas are "blue" and getting worse by the day, and the effect of the massive number of new (potential) voters oozing across the wide-open border remains to be seen.
In the end, Cruz should win by about 5 points (plus or, yes possibly minus) and Trump should win by a little more than Cruz does. It's extremely likely that neither one, especially Cruz, will get a 10-point margin like Abbott or Cornyn got last time they ran.
Keep in mind that the Rats are definitely going to lose the West Virginia Senate seat and might lose Ohio and/or Montana. Some pipe dreamers would add other states. Even just flipping WV makes it a 50-50 Senate.
So realistically the GOP gets +1 and MAYBE more if things go really well. Texas is the ONE state where Democrats have any chance whatsoever of picking up anything in the Senate. Does anyone really think they aren't going to pull out all the stops to try to achieve that?
It probably won't work, but any chatter at this point about polls "confirming" that Cruz "will" definitely win is moronic.
“more than half the transplants who have migrated here are conservatives”
People claim that and make up numbers along those lines all the time. The next one which claims it with actual PROOF will be the first.
Unfortunately the fact — backed up by actual numbers — is that the areas in Texas which are being invaded the most are the ones which are trending LEFTward the fastest.
“the hispanic vote is trending to the right”
The rural Hispanic vote in Texas and some very isolated other areas like Imperial County, California is in fact trending to the right as of 2020.
However it is swamped by the urban Hispanic vote (both in Texas and nationwide), which is doing no such thing.
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