Space rock 'on collision course'

BBC News ^ | 24 July, 2002 | By Dr David Whitehouse

[In Search of Freedom]

From Nasa - --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Article Posted: July 23, 2002 Asteroid 2002 NT7 could hit in two decades; 2002 NY40 passes by August 17; and a large NEA search telescope is proposed.

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1.) NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID (NEA) 2002 NT7

A small NEA currently under observation has a remote possibility of hitting the Earth in 2019. The possibility will most likely be resolved within the next few days as new observations come in. It is reported here as an example of the sort of “detective work” associated with some of the newly discovered NEAs. (Assuming that you see nothing more posted here, you can assume that subsequent observations showed this object not to be a problem).

Comments from Maria E. Sansaturio and Giovanni V. Valsecchi

Asteroid 2002 NT7, a relatively large (H=16) Apollo with a still rather poorly determined orbit, has been on the Risk Pages of both NEODyS and JPL since July 18, as it is associated to a number of Virtual Impactors. With the shrinking of the uncertainty region due to the accumulation of astrometric observations, many of the VIs found associated with the initial, very uncertain, orbit have disappeared, as is normal in such cases. Of those that have survived until today, the one related to an Earth collision on 1 February 2019 has gone up in the Palermo Technical Scale, reaching the value of +0.18, according to the computations made in Pisa. This means that, for the first time, the probability of a specific impact of a Near-Earth Asteroid turns out to be larger than that of the "background".

The asteroid is easily observable; in fact it is observed practically every night, and its visibility will remain very good for the coming two months. As new observations come in, the situation will evolve in the next days and, as usual, either the probability associated with this VI will go up somewhat, or, more probably, it will disappear.

[Viva Le Dissention]

So...party at my house, Jan. 31, 2019. You're all invited.

[GnL]

So much for the stock market recovering by 2019 !

[Dog Gone]

Which continent? That might make a difference in my attitude. ;-)

[FreedomFarmer]

We'll just turn all our Marshalls up to 11 and jam "Space Truckin'".

[He Rides A White Horse]

Dr Yeomans said the world would have to get used to finding more objects like NT7 that, on discovery, look threatening, but then become harmless.

The larger problem might be one that appears harmless, then suddenly becomes a threat. To the unprepared.

[WindMinstrel]

Does that mean the sky actually IS falling?

[WillVoteForFood]

The picture they included with the article is a bit of an exaggeration given that the object in question is "only" two kilometers wide. The one in the picture must be hundreds of miles wide.

[Savage Beast]

I always suspected that Chicken Little was right.

[Frank_Discussion]

Hey, that's Dr. Whitehouse for you...

[Frank_Discussion]

But... To be honest, Dr. W's "chickenlittleness" aside, this planet can mount a defense. We need to get started yesterday.

Actually, an outstanding way to deflect one of these things is to actually capture it and mine it for resources. There's technology that'll do this, if we'll only develop it.

[Hot Tabasco]

So...party at my house, Jan. 31, 2019. You're all invited.

Sorry, but I'm headed for the other side of the planet that weekend.

[robertpaulsen]

"rating on the so-called Palermo technical scale of threat of 0.06"

Cool. I didn't even know that there was a "Palermo" Technical Scale of Threat. But what is 0.06? What if utter certainty is 0.10?

[Ahban]

Good point. We should make it a goal now to change its path just enough so that we get a new moonlet. One that is only 30-50K miles up instead of 250,000. We could build a space station right into the moonlet, using it for raw materials that would not have to be lifted from Earth.

[Frank_Discussion]

Exactly the spirit of what I said. Though, let's lower that orbit to about 500 miles, and that might work better. ;-)

[G.Mason]

I believe the good "Dr."(?) as much as this illusion of the asteroid striking the earth.

Alledged asteroid is 2 killometers around?

Rather overblown in the artists rendering, wouldn't you say?

Much like this article.

Hey honey, what's for dinner?

[ProudGOP]

more objects like NT7 that, on discovery, look threatening, but then become harmless.

"This is because the problem of Near-Earth Objects is now being properly addressed," he said.

I must have missed it. How is the problem being addressed?

Probably by raising taxes and outlawing SUVs or something equally useful.

[Grig]

There seem to have been a lot of these lately. I've started making them down in my planner, there is a NEA due in 2022, and 2028 as well as this one.

I think someone is giving us a shot across the bow.

[Prodigal Son]

From the space geeks:

The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale was developed to enable NEO specialists to categorize and prioritize potential impact risks spanning a wide range of impact dates, energies and probabilities. Actual scale values less than -2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between -2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. Potential impacts with positive Palermo Scale values will generally indicate situations that merit some level of concern.

The scale compares the likelihood of the detected potential impact with the average risk posed by objects of the same size or larger over the years until the date of the potential impact. This average risk from random impacts is known as the background risk. For convenience the scale is logarithmic, so, for examples, a Palermo Scale value of -2 indicates that the detected potential impact event is only 1% as likely as a random background event occurring in the intervening years, a value of zero indicates that the single event is just as threatening as the background hazard, and a value of +2 indicates an event that is 100 times more likely than a background impact by an object at least as large before the date of the potential impact in question.

Not being a math kind of guy, I can't tell if a +2 means you're going to get smacked or not.

[SunkenCiv]

just a bttt.

Asteroids: Deadly Impact National Geographic	Shoemaker: The Man Who Made An Impact by David H. Levy	Restless Earth Collection National Geographic