Posted on 11/06/2006 10:10:55 AM PST by meg88
Jim Geraghty has noticed it. MSNBC sees it. The Washington Post sees it. Even liberal blogger Jerome Armstrong, who appeared on my radio show on Saturday, was only cautiously optimistic about Tuesday, with an emphasis on the cautious.
And my sources in Washington tell me the 2006 election is, like the melting New Hampshire snows after that first sustained burst of spring sunshine, a heck of a lot muddier than it used to be just a few days ago. And that’s good news for Republicans, because it is the Democrats’ lead that’s melting away.
Internal Republican polls from around the country are showing a modest, yet consistent and noticeable trend in favor of Republican candidates. Note: these trends appeared before Saddam Hussein was found guilty of war crimes and sentenced to death—a turn of events Karl Rove himself could not have timed better for Republicans.
“What you are hearing is a collective sigh of Republican relief after this latest round of data has come in,” one high-level Republican consultant in Washington told me. “Word is already starting to spread that the prophesied ‘tidal wave’ might only be a ripple.”
One high-profile Republican pundit could hardly contain his glee that the prognosticators would be proved wrong, again. “If the present Republican surge is real and continues through Tuesday, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and John Zogby will be stripped bare of any credibility when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes,” he stated. “Personally, I hope they go out of business.”
Specifically, sources tell me that the Tennessee, Missouri, and Montana Senate races continue to trend toward the Republicans. Michael Steele, the Republican nominee for US Senate in Maryland is in a dead heat with Ben Cardin. Even Senate races Republicans have written off are showing positive trends: Mike DeWine in Ohio and Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania are said to be “surging.”
In the House Republicans are now rapidly lowering estimates of how many seats they might lose. “Whereas a week ago we were looking at the possibility of losing 25 seats, we now think that number is closer to 10,” a Congressional Republican insider told me.
Here is a good conservative website with info applicable to the topic:
November 06, 2006
A Look Inside That Pew Poll
**************************AN EXCERPT *******************************
The theme of this poll is the attack on Democratic gains in this election cycle. The GOP has rolled back the Democratic intrusion onto Republican demographics, which leaves the field looking similar to 2004 and 2002. This race may hold some very unpleasant surprises for the Democrats in the House races if these numbers hold up or continue to erode over the next 40 hours.
I don't think this "massive" Dem lead ever existed.
With a great economy? Gas prices receding? Saddam Guilty of War Crimes? The Dems having nothing to offer but "I hate Bush"?
i never believed this from the git-go.
PS Though I do have to thank the leaders of Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other "freedom fighters" throughout the world for their endorsement of the Democratic party. That's worth a couple million GOP/Independent votes right there ;)
I always thought he was a snake ... GRrrrrrrrrrrr
“If the present Republican surge is real and continues through Tuesday, Charlie Cook, Stu Rothenberg, and John Zogby will be stripped bare of any credibility when it comes to predicting electoral outcomes,” he stated. “Personally, I hope they go out of business.”
HERE HERE !!!
Same thing for me.
I wrote a friend an email, I can't remember exactly what I said, but it's something along the lines of this.
We'll lose only 1 in Conneticuit.
We'll lose 3 in Ohio and Pennsylvania
We'll lose 2-3 in NY.
We'll lose 1 in Arizona and Colorado.
We'll lose either Foley or DeLay's district, but not both.
We'll lose 1 in Indiana, not more.
We lose 1 of the other three competitive Florida races, not more.
Northup will win easily in Kentucky, Lucas/Davis is very, very close, could go either way.
No seat in California Changes hands.
Wilson wins in NM.
Reichert wins in WA.
We don't lose in NH.
We draw in Illinois, losing one, winning one.
We win both competitive races in GA, with help from a Perdue landslide.
That = -12.
Not too bad considering.
Well put. Also,I just don't see the minorities coming out in droves to vote for the dems.The far left is really small in number compared to motivated republicans.I actually think K.Harris could win here in Fla. Nelson got in because 6 years ago north florida was still willing to vote for a dem in a national election. After 9/11,I believe that all changed.
I haven't been paying attention to detail. HOw many can we lose and still keep the majority?
(sorry, I'm so poor I can't pay attention....but ... I VOTED!)
Your link doesn't go to the story.
To put it mildly, lets not relax just yet.
The best part of this is that the MSM has spun this as a huge Democratic tide for so long that if the Republicans maintain control, even by a single vote, it cannot be spun as anything but a gigantic Republican comeback and a win for the President. If the expectations game had been played correctly, a 13-seat loss by the GOP could have been devastating. The Dems got greedy and the media got too far out in front of the bandwagon.
I had it at eleven, but your analysis is spot on.
Magnificent, us kids and Dad will all be at the polls early tomorrow, except for Mother, who has to work, but will go after that.
Dad made a list of conservative candidates, because some of the local races aren't clear.
Dad, your Magnificent too, can't wait to show him Roves' pictures, I like that you all made me laugh.
I'm not so sure about Kerry being an excuse. Virtually everyone I've talked to was absolutely ticked about it, and everyone who has a military member FURIOUS........
bttt
Aunts, Uncles, and grandma are a mixed bag. The weird thing is that the more religious members of my family tend to be Democrats, while those of us who aren't religious are Republicans.
Oh, oh...............
It is going to be close.............. GOTV is everything. However, the black ministers are upset I heard because the Democratic Party is not paying them this year to GOTV.
Oh, and several have asked about my georgiarat name. It is NOT for democRAT. It was my old CB handle and I grew attached to it!
This raises an interesting point. If the 'pubs are successful in holding both houses (I hope, I hope, I hope!), the pollsters who predicted the RAT landslide will be totally discredited. They may even be driven to honesty!
It was not a joke. He meant every damn work he said.
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