Posted on 08/12/2015 2:31:19 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
This is, I believe, the first poll of the GOP race since the debate conducted by a major news network using traditional phone calls instead of the Internet, so if you’re looking for reasons to give this one extra credence, there you go.
What’s the biggest story here? Trump’s rise? Ben Carson’s surprising surge, given his low-key debate performance? Or the decline of Scott Walker?
CNN hasn’t polled Iowa recently so there’s no yardstick to measure if Trump gained or lost points since the debate, but most of the other pollsters who’ve surveyed the state lately had him between 17 and 19 points. (Gravis, an apparent outlier, had him at 31.) It may be that he’s picked up a few percent there. Not hard to see why either. Check this out:
That’s not the only metric where Trump does exceptionally well — he also crushes the field when asked who’d do best at handling the economy and terrorism — but if you think “no more business as usual” is the most animating theme among the GOP electorate right now, go figure that the least orthodox pol in the field is the top choice. In fact, as you can see above, three of the top five candidates right now are people who’ve never held office before. Fiorina has cracked the top tier thanks to her excellence in the 5 p.m. debate while Carson has now seemingly emerged as the social-con favorite. That’s less surprising than it might seem at first: Not only were his numbers the second-most improved (behind Fiorina) across several polls after the debate, but when Suffolk asked Iowans a few days ago which moments they remember most vividly from the event, Carson was all over the top of the charts.
If you’re hellbent on finding a candidate from outside the political class and you don’t like Trump because he’s not conservative enough or because he’s too … Trump-y, you’ve got Carson as your protest vote. That’s terrible news for fans of Ted Cruz, who’ve been waiting for Scott Walker to fall off the top of the polls in Iowa only to find now that there’s a double whammy ahead of them. Cruz can’t out-populist Trump and he can’t out-outsider Carson. He’s got to bide his time and hope that gradually Carson, Huckabee, and Walker will all fade, leaving him the clear choice for social conservatives there.
As for Walker, the bad poll news continues. He lost the most ground of anyone at the debate across various polls this week and now he’s slipped to single digits in Iowa, a state where he was polling at around 20 percent and leading the field less than a month ago. Trumpmania and, to a lesser extent, Carsonmania have hurt him, and if Cruz has a breakout debate performance in him (as pretty much everyone assumes), he could end up chasing Cruzmania before too long. His decline is the biggest story of this poll, I think, just because he’s the only top-tier candidate for whom Iowa is a must-win. He was born there, he leads a midwestern state, he’s got sterling evangelical credentials — he should be the favorite. If he disappoints, what other early states does he win?
Exit question: Didn’t Ron Paul take 21 percent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses three years ago? Where’s the “rEVOLution” right now for Rand, who’s limping along with five percent?
Good to see Carson and Fiorina moving up. Even if not elected POTUS both would be good choices for cabinet members.
This is the “Fair” Mr T has been talking
about
Thought Huckabee would be higher in Iowa.
The decline of Bush. After the media winged monkeys tried to spread him on toast and shove him into our mouths.
I met Cruz for a photo op after he gave a speech in Philly for our talk radio station here last year. Anyone who thinks he doesn’t have charisma is definitely wrong. He’s a powerful presence in person. He would definitely rise to the occasion as a strong president on the national scene in any moments of national crisis.
I got my picture with him and told him that if he decides to run for President I would definitely support him. I’ll keep my word and continue to do so all throughout Trump-mania. We haven’t had a candidate as good as Cruz since Reagan.
This is a CNN driven “poll”. I’d take it with a grain of salt.
I so admire him. He’s got guts, smarts and...well, everything. He seems to have a lovely family, too. That photo of him with his two young daughters...
Does he have a safe seat if he doesn’t get the nomination?
Huckabee is an excellent debater. Of course, Kreepy Kelly didn’t give him a tumble.
Cruz + Carson beats Trump.
Santorum + Perry + Kasich + Jindal + Graham + Christie + Rubio + Paul beat Trump.
Its obvious Trump is the problem and not the direction our esteemed elected officials have taken us.
Texas should be safe for any conservative. He’s not up for reelection until 2018. Mid-term elections are also good for conservatives.
Nah, Surgeon General is a basement office type job. Think back and you might remember two names, The guy with the Captain Ahab beard, and the black woman pushing chillrun to masterbate.
It would be an insulting position for Dr Carson.
Better would Health and Human Services or whatever it’s called today.
That said. I think it’s an all or nothing run for him.
Despite my poor spelling, I was trying to say that maybe while in office he could fire himself and get rid of that stupid title! Again, we think alike: I used to call that guy Captain Ahab.
I just think he’s a little too laidback for the Presidency.
Let the Trump-Mania continue all the way to GOP convention, and then on to defeat Hillary in November.
As to the final question, the phony polls worked to keep Ron Paul’s numbers as low as possible throughout 2011. All of these polling companies put up better numbers in the final days. I’d think Rand’s real number is closer 10 right now.
As to why he’s doing so bad —
1. Cruz undercut the Paul campaign before it even began by getting much of the TEA party vote.
2. The antiwar Paul supporters see that Rand will be voting against the Iran deal, so they’re not enthusiastic at all. (Trump talks more about Iraq being a bad idea than Rand.)
3. And of course TRUMP is locking up the generalized anti-establishment vote among both independents and GOP. Trump is just such a much stronger personality. Remember a few months ago, they did the same thing to Rand they tried against Trump this weak — saying that he hates women. Rand’s repsonse was just weak in comparison to Trump.
(All that and of course in early polls, Paul (and a few others) was being polled with 5-8 other candidates, not 16.)
Is it better to shine even in a CNN poll or is it Ok to be down in the dumps in a CNN poll?
Trump is a breath of fresh air of America First nationalism.
Never did think Iowans were particularly smart.
Do not under-estimate Carson. As people get to know him, he is gaining every month. I would not be surprised if he starts topping in polls.
The problem with Cruz is that he comes off as scripted at times (even though I know he’s not)- like televangelist. That works well for some, but for the general electorate, it’s a put-off.
That said, I’d vote for him in heartbeat.
“Why has not candidate released any internal polls?”
-—May be just me, but I have never seen/heard any candidate release internal poll numbers. I just might have missed it all these years
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