Posted on 03/22/2018 7:12:19 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
Edited on 03/22/2018 8:47:22 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]
bloomberg content
Agreed...but it is still a hidden interest hike that is bringing down the stock market...and that was the point of my post.
Plus, if we head back towards recession later this year or next (and there are some indications...not a lot but some...that we may)...QT is going to stop and we may be talking of QE 4...or whatever they are going to call it.
Bottom line is...I really don't think we've heard the last of QE. I bet we see another form of it within the next few years.
What do they import?
Fortune cookies and chop sticks?
You are basically admitting rates can't stay at zero but you think growth is "nonexistent" and the economy still needs the crutch. But that's not true. Tax cuts were needed and confidence in the dollar is needed. Without the latter, people are not going to tie up their money in productivity improvements that won't pay off for 10 years. Instead large investors will continue the practices of chasing short term yeilds that don't help grow the economy sustainably.
Do you mean to tell me that Smithfield is the only pork processing plant in the U.S.?
Don't let your dislike for the People's RepuliK of California cloud your judgement here. There are a TON of wheat, soybean, corn, pork and other farmers all across the midwest that are going to feel the pinch of these tariffs and the trade war with China. When their ability to export starts taking its bite we're going to see a whole lot of family farms hurting big time.
I'd like to think they aren't intended targets in this trade war with China and I certainly don't want to see any more family farms go under because of all this ....
Unintended Consequences 'n all that.
I certainly agree with your premise that the Fed board is no fan of Trump. But the QT is needed. The longer it is postponed the more the economy is hollowed out. The reason people put their money in American factories to get them back in 10 years is that they expect the dollar will still be worth something in 10 years. Without the QT they don't have any assurance about the dollar.
The Fed’s QT now against Trump is causing the stock market to crash.
Who does that help? democrats.
I agree that QE will be back. One thing we do know from today on the Hill is that Congress will NEVER cut spending from now on, and the only ways to reduce the deficit are economic growth, inflation / QE, and/or default. Trump chooses growth, the next president will probably choose #2 with encouragement from Congress.
The corrent minor correction is necessary. It gets rid of weak hands. You appear to be one of those, so please sell in the next month or two so we can get a really rally this summer.
The Chicomms are already tariffing at least some of our products. Not too wise to let the peasants have too much, you know.
Yep...and even with the growth with the economy we are still looking at deficits of near 6% GDP. In short: We are screwed.
If we get ONE calamity and short-term interest rates increase on our debt? Lord help us.
Fannie Mae owns mine, but that’s not very comforting, either.
U.S. GDP was 2.3% for 2017 . The Fed should not raise interest rates with a GDP and inflation this low. Anyone can see that raising rates 6 times with an economy this weak will cause a recession.
https://www.kiplinger.com/article/business/T019-C000-S010-gdp-growth-rate-and-forecast.html
We still have the military to back up the dollar. Even that advantage won't last forever but it works against tiny countries like Switzerland that are threats to the dollars (by making it look bad). The whole world will keep inflating with us for now. Like I said before, our choices are growth, default and inflation in various combos. Trump floated the default trial balloon as a candidate and I doubt he will do that again now. The right answer for Trump is economic growth. By increasing GDP that 6% goes down. IMO that will be paired with some inflation in time, but inflation expectations are remarkably low right now. I've been very wrong in the past predicting lots of inflation.
Anyone is wrong. The reason GDP has been the lowest ever (for a recovery) is low rates.
CBS Sunday Morning once did a story about a Harley Davidson motorcycle club in Beijing.
It was stated that Harley’s cost $100,000 in China.
I also heard that in China there is a 25% tariff on automobiles imported from America.
On Good Morning America three or four years ago, they featured a car show in China.
A middle aged Chinese man was asked if he would buy a Chinese made car. He made a face, shook his head, and said “No.”
Through an interpreter, he said that he preferred to buy a GM car. “I figure if they have been making automobiles for over one hundred years, they know what they’re doing!” he answered.
Also, on the CBS Evening News Thursday night, they interviewed two Chinese boys in China about President Trump’s proposed tariffs through an interpreter. The kids sounded as fervent and as psycho as a radical muslim.
One kid said about the Americans, “We’ll gouge their eyes out!”
Maybe Nixon never should have opened up China in the early 1970’s.
No, but we’ll find that Federal lands in the West have been pledged to China as security against their continuing purchase of US Treasuries, to keep the crap game afloat. And gnats like the Bundys who get in the way will continue to be crushed.
Trump is trying to reduce those but democrats are challenging every move in court. And he can't just wave his hand and remove the minimum wage or OSHA, affirmative action or other laws as congress has to repeal those.
BTW, please let us know when you finally capitulate and exit the market so we can all use that as our buy signal.
BFL
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