Latest from Axios/Survey Monkey: Black approval Trump 22%, Hispanic 38%

per M. Joseph Sheppard, Twitter ^ | 7/19/2018 | J. Joseph Shepard

[LS]

"Axios Survey Monkey July 16-17 Trump Approval among Black and Hispanic voters at the highest I have seen in any poll. Blacks at 22% Approval shifting the aggregate towards 20%. Hispanics at 38% nearing GW Bush's over 40% in 2004."

Also, separate tweet from same survey:

"Axios Survey Monkey July 16-17 "Which of the following issues matters most to you right now (2100 registered voters). I see Jobs way at the top and nothing on Russia unless buried in the 7% @jaketapper Maybe @CNN has it wrong?"

[Zhang Fei]

[LS does not post crap, the Man is in the “flow of those who know” and not some gadfly grabbing headlines and looking for responses

Put a different way, you have just been informed of a trend that has legs and ignore it at your own risk]

---

It’s a useful data point. But Trump’s numbers among blacks and Hispanics are abysmal compared to Bush’s. Approval and head-to-head voter preference are different things. If Bush had won 40% of the black vote, the Democrats would have been wiped out. Heck, if Bush had gotten 70% of the white vote, the Democrats would have been crushed. Instead, he only got 60%.

[painter]

At roughly the same point in his presidency as Trump today, back in 2002, Bush got 41% approval ratings among blacks, and in the low 70’s among Hispanics. In 2004, he got about 10% of the black vote and somewhere in the 30’s among Hispanics.

There is a difference Bush talked a good game and did nothing. Trump is backing up his promises and black and Hispanic unemployment is the lowest in history and getting better!

[painter]

LS does not post crap, the Man is in the “flow of those who know” and not some gadfly grabbing headlines and looking for responses

Put a different way, you have just been informed of a trend that has legs and ignore it at your own risk

I'll back you up on that.

[PTBAA]

Almost as good, there will be a sizable percentage who are sufficiently happy with things to simply stay home and not vote. If that is just another 5-10%, the Democrat thrashing will be epic!

Their only hope it to convince Hillary to run again. /s

[RoseofTexas]

😲 WHOA!! Hispanics 38?!! Blacks 22? Wow! Impressive! hope the black voting block goes higher! We are going to need EVERY possible vote we can muster up for the midterms. The P gals are going to turn up in record numbers for the evil communist rats so it boils down to which team has more enthusiasm and turnout! 😓 THIS WILL BE THE MOST IMPORTANT MIDS EVERRRRR..this is where MAGA and KAG will be decided..it's a do or die election!!

[HombreSecreto]

True. If he does this and the trend hasn’t broken, there may be a sea change in the Black vote to the Republicans that hasn’t been seen since 1928-1932 (when the tail of the post-slavery Republican support died out)

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks LS.

[forgotten man]

One of the reasons that Bill Clinton was so popular among black men is because they viewed sympathetically his ability to stay one step ahead of the law. Maybe Trump is getting the same sympathy. The dirty cops are trying to frame Trump.

[ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas]

Survey Monkey was one reason for the confidence that H was going to win easily in 2016. Maybe they are better at polling now.

[The Fop]

Let’s keep in mind that neither party has tried to improve the economic fortunes of the working class since before the Civil Rights Act was passed, with the possible exception of Nixon. In fact, both parties have turned their backs on the working class by turning a blind eye to illegal immigration and the outsourcing of American jobs.

How very convenient for the Democrats to be able to pit minorities against Whites, and encourage a victim mentality, knowing that most Blacks and Hispanics are working class, and also knowing that neither party is doing anything to improve their lives and make them feel more optimistic about the future.

And how very convenient for the Democrats that working class Whites, Blacks and Hispanics have never seen their economic fortunes rise in unison, so that they might feel a sense of solidarity with each other, and form a political alliance with each other based on their shared economic interests.

Of course, the GOP could have chosen to fill this void decades ago. But they never wanted to be the party of unwashed riff raff, and they’re already upset enough that they have to pretend to care about the “small town values” of socially Conservative White working class voters, whose votes they now need to win elections, now that more and more socially Liberal upper middle class voters are voting for the Democrats.

Trump is wrecking the Uniparty’s decades long scam of keeping the working class down, and politically divided along racial lines. And the reaction of both parties is quite telling. The Democrats are hysterical that they’re going to lose their power. While the Republicans are merely pissed off over the prospect of the working class turning to them for help.

[snarkytart]

yes the year following 9-11 was a high ride for W.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Those 22% blacks and 38% Hispanics are obviously rayciss.

[DAC21]

"At roughly the same point in his presidency as Trump today, back in 2002, Bush got 41% approval ratings among blacks, and in the low 70’s among Hispanics. In 2004, he got about 10% of the black vote and somewhere in the 30’s among Hispanics.

There is a difference Bush talked a good game and did nothing. Trump is backing up his promises and black and Hispanic unemployment is the lowest in history and getting better!"

Those numbers were all about 9/11 unity. Trump's numbers are about the Economy, more long lasting and meaningful IMO. Trump needs to campaign hard especially in PA. where the redistricting may kill Republicans.

[JamesP81]

If these numbers are accurate then the democrats will get crushed.

[poconopundit]

And Bush no doubt got a big lift from 9/11 support by 2002, so that clouds these comparisons a bit.

[Zhang Fei]

That’s skewed, badly. Right after 9/11. Bush was at 93% approval for a while. Normal black approval of R presidents is in the 10s.

My point is that approval ratings are not votes. Bush went on to win 11% of the black vote in 2004, despite his 30+% approval ratings in that segment in 2003. There are some interesting numbers available, though, on votes by demographic:

2016		Group	Clinton	Trump
SEX	Men	48	41	52
Women		52	54	41
RACE	White	70	37	57
African-American		12	89	8
Hispanic		11	66	28
Asian		4	65	27
Other		3	56	36

2004		Group	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Other
All Voters		Pct.	48%	51%	*	1%
SEX	Men	46	44	55	1	1
Women		54	51	48	*	*
RACE	White	77	41	58	*	1
African-American		11	88	11	*	*
Hispanic		8	53	44	2	1
Asian		2	56	43	0	1
Other		2	54	40	2	4

Gallup also has some interesting Bush approval numbers in the run-up to the disastrous (for the GOP) mid-terms of 2006:

	Approve %	Dis- approve %	No opinion %
Non-Hispanic Whites
2006 Jun 8-25	42	53	5
2005 Jun 6-25	47	48	5
2004 Jun 9-30	61	38	1
2003 Jun 12-15	69	28	3
2002 Jun 3-6	74	20	6
2001 Jun 11-17	58	31	11
Blacks
2006 Jun 8-25	15	78	7
2005 Jun 6-25	16	77	7
2004 Jun 9-30	16	79	5
2003 Jun 12-18	32	57	11
2002 Jun 3-9	41	48	11
2001 Jun 11-17	37	50	13
Hispanics
2006 Jun 8-25	38	53	9
2005 Jun 6-25	41	49	10
2004 Jun 9-30	40	52	8
2003 Jun 12-18	67	25	8
2002 Oct 3-8	61	30	9
2002 Jun 3-9	73	19	8
2001 Jun 11-17	59	28	13

[Zhang Fei]

[There is a difference Bush talked a good game and did nothing. Trump is backing up his promises and black and Hispanic unemployment is the lowest in history and getting better! ]

---

As with every election, I’m keeping my fingers crossed, but psychologically-prepared for an unfavorable outcome.

[hadaclueonce]

Survey Monkey?
The biggest waste of surver space on earth.
The “Monkey” is the worst.
Said Hillary would win Texas by 20.

[zeestephen]

Re: “Hispanics at 38%, nearing GW Bush’s over 40% in 2004.”

Bush got exactly 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004.

The original NEP (National Election Pool) claim was 44%.

Several news organizations and private pollsters challenged the 44% number.

NEP finally changed the number to 40% right before the 2008 election.

Many immigration doves at Free Republic used the original 44% number to claim that Republicans could politically survive massive LEGAL immigration.

That was political insanity.

Even Ronald Reagan, in his landslide 1984 election victory, got just 34% of the Hispanic vote.

[Intolerant in NJ]

And yet some guy from Axios was just on Fox insisting that all the polling data he looks at, like right/wrong direction and the rest, show a big blue wave building for the fall - he should read his own polling results.....