Hurricane Michael

NHC/NOAA ^ | 6 October 2018 | NHC/NOAA

[Ingtar]

Should they have rounded up to 111?

[Justa]

Michael will fill Tampa bay tomorrow because it will pass to the west.

[NautiNurse]

NHC designates wind speeds in multiples of 5 mph. Hurricane Michael is anticipated to reach major Category 3 (111-129 mph) status today. At that point, NHC will report sustained winds of at least 115 mph.

[numberonepal]

We still have a ESE wind here at the beach but it’s going to progress to SW throughout the day it seems.

[commish]

Ugh. Did not want to see him strengthening this quickly.

[NautiNurse]

Prior to passing Tampa Bay, the storm will lower sea level in the bay. Once the storm is north of Tampa Bay and TB is on the “dirty side,” the winds will pile up water into the bay.

[KC Burke]

To All:
One of the many models showing path.

Click the play arrow at the top after the frames load.

This is not official — just one of many possibles — rely on local authorities for life safety information.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=seus&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018100912&fh=17

[PAR35]

Looks like it’s going to dump a lot of water into the Apalachicola River then travel up the Flint dumping more water upstream. Looks like lots of flooding on the lower Flint and Apalachicola that’s going to last a while. Looks like Lake Seminole is about a foot down from full pool. (The dam there is primarily used to maintain a navigational depth for barges going up the rivers, not for flood control).

[NautiNurse]

Okaloosa Sheriff Dept. is already reporting rising water levels with minor flooding. Hurricane Michael is more than 300 miles away. This is a reminder that the Gulf of Mexico is a big bowl, and the water will be forced to go inland.

[alancarp]

Weatherbell (Joe Bastardi) still thinking this beast could tick up to a Cat 4 (certainly plausible since it's essentially a 3 already). Intensity models are falling just short of that, but it's probably a difference without much of a ditinction.

Models are clearly converging tightly on the area between Panama City and Mexico Beach... looks like the hurricane-force windfield is running about 50 miles wide right now, so the entire area will be impacted.

At least this one isn't going to linger: should be out into the Atlantic in about 66 more hours.

[Repeal The 17th]

“...it is headed directly for my home on Cape San Blas...”
-
Hope you are somewhere else when it gets there, friend.
(former resident of Mexico Beach and worked in St. Joe)

[KC Burke]

I’ve heard that Mexico Beach is a hidden gem for shelling and beach walking. Is that an over statement?

[numberonepal]

The hidden hideaway. No one knows how awesome the beaches are there, and I’ll bet that’s how y’all like it.

[blam]

Click here to see the 'steering weather' coming from the west.

[PAR35]

The tracks do seem to be shifting slightly west.

[blam]

"For me, it’s actually starting to finally cool off here so I don’t mind losing power as much as I do in the HOT HUMID months.

I saw a forecast of 56 degrees for Mobile this week. Whew!

You Alabama residents, check this.
(Ahem, as important as hurricanes)

[dirtboy]

Possible rapid intensification.

[NautiNurse]

SUMMARY OF 200 PM Advisory...
----------------------------------------------
About 335 MI...S of Panama City FL
About 310 MI...S of Apalachicola FL
Maximum Sustained Winds...110 MPH
Present Movement...N at 12 MPH
Minimum Central Pressure...965 MB...

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles, and
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

[janetjanet998]

Yep..not good news

worst case is landfall just west of Panama City Area..Bay county has 185,000 people....the two counties east less then 15,000 each

[Repeal The 17th]

Can’t tell you (it’s a secret).