Hurricane Dorian Live Thread

NHC/NOAA ^ | 28 August 2019 | NHC/NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.

Satellite Imagery Dorian

NHC Public Advisories

NHC Discussions

Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)

Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay

[Desparado]

There’s great duck hunting on the lake and also hog and turkey galore. If you think Clewiston is funky , you should drive across the bridge to Moorehaven. I married a beautiful girl from Morehaven back in the 70’s. She was Chalo Nitka Queen. I think it means large fish or big bass. Also, if you really want to go to Deliverance Land- there’s always Palmdale. That area is all real Florida country!

[John S Mosby]

One more— the US Navy knows whats going on. Mayport in JAX full fleet in port egress to sea— go out past Bermuda and then come back in 3 or 4 days. That was this AM... they are leaving.

[John S Mosby]

Yeah— who could forget the St. Johns in mid Jax at high tide with storm surge flooding... all the way up into Blackwater Creek plus 22 feet in there. No thanks.

[John S Mosby]

Oh yes. been through 12 major hurricanes. was near Mobile— when Camille hit— kids, we thought it was “cool”. Folks... not so much seeing live oak trees with sea water 5 feet up the oldest huge trees. Salt did them no favors, and destroyed many a fine home on the coast including museums, and inland.

So did Katrina for that matter, Pass Christian, and Pascagoula.

[ncalburt]

About 90 % don't read it.

You are twisting the reason for these projections .

this is not the time to yank chains here .

People are worried .

[John S Mosby]

Considering Larry is not a Southerner nor a Floridian, could understand that. He was born and raised in Nebraska on a pig farm— so he probably could find common ground with the “livestock” people and the mud bug trucks with high axles and wet shirt chicks. But you have the “environment” correctly placed. The people that own the operations are serious farmers— have to say. Then there are the migrants... and the malcontents and meth people...of any color. Carry— at all times== for the large moccasins and such.

[lodi90]

The Clay County Sheriff was on the radio talking about Blackwater Creek. Telling everybody to evacuate when appropriate so they don’t have to do a lot of rescues. And also he said not to call about a cat in a tree which apparently some dim bulb did last year during Irma!

[LonePalm]

The ships in Mayport don't have to go that far.

I rode out Hurricane David in '79 off Charleston as an Ensign newly aboard. We left port and ran east for about 8 hours and then steered into the wind and waves all night. We were back in port within 24 hours.

WWG1WGA

Garde la Foi, mes amis! Nous nous sommes les sauveurs de la République! Maintenant et Toujours!
(Keep the Faith, my friends! We are the saviors of the Republic! Now and Forever!)
LonePalm, le Républicain du verre cassé (The Broken Glass Republican)

[John S Mosby]

Yeah that’s a fun one. Got friends who are.... going fishing off the Banks, and they say it gets really good just before a blow.

Times like these we want to cue up “Key Largo” for a sort of Keys in the 40s feel.

Or a you tube on a real killer— the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935. Have several original books by survivors, and rescue people from that one. They found bodies up in the palm trees, several days after. Mass grave/memorial on Islamorada is worth a visit— Art Deco Works Progress Admin project (and the idiots drive right by it, FDR did when he came down in 1937). There are no names on the monument— of the Veterans who were killed, and most cremated.

[RegulatorCountry]

Been there, to the monument. Love the coral stone, the deco design, very cool.

The palms are blowing backwards, though. Oops.

[John S Mosby]

Miss the Real Florida from 8 generations of family all over it, and VA. Despite all the whackos— of which there are many more imports. Just the most cool history of the nascent United States, from the Spanish purchase and all the Wars.

[John S Mosby]

There is nothing like the “woo-woo” factor of the television projections to KEEP people worried. This is the point made in the video link i posted of Bernie Rayno of Accuweather last night— “people are havng to make decisions for actions based on projections”... that is, guesswork, informed guesswork.

We are certainly better informed than the 1930s, or even Admiral Halsey was with his two typhoons that sank... US Navy warships as a result of sailing right into them!

The traffic, the travel, the inordinate interaction with people who do not have critical thinking skills on a “normal” day and freak when there are no french fries— you make an excellent point. Always— always boldface any projection as “the best we can guess”. Nature does not play with the “climate control” clowns— and this is proof positive we cannot affect “global warming”.

[Ingtar]

The ridge over the western Atlantic appears to be already building to the north of Dorian and is beginning to force the hurricane on a more west-northwest track or 300 degrees at 9 kt.

It is turning. It was 320 degrees before. Hard to turn a fast spinning top. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the forecast... enough that no one in the area should breath easy yet.

[Capt_Hank]

Thanks for the background on Clewiston. My first trip across the lake was in 2005. I was heading to Tarpon Springs and stopped at Roland Martin’s for the night. I spent a total of 5 minutes at the Tiki Bar. Placed my order and told them to call me when it was ready.

[alancarp]

Couldn’t possibly guess...not nearly educated enough.

[John S Mosby]

Looking for our Keys natives accounts (paperbacks) had in the family since then— somewhere in the house. Appalling- dead people up in the middle of a coconut palm tree 30 feet up— now that was some storm surge. And... Flagler’s train that backed down there to rescue people— backed all the way from Miami- only to fill up with men and be surged/blown off the tracks killing everyone and the locomotive.

this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

[dirtboy]

It's becoming a beast - check out the outflow in all directions:

[securityMama]

We are praying for all y’all in the path of Dorian; especially for you, your family members and your animals. The last update I saw showed a slight movement north (I’m praying for a eastward movement).

[Justa]

Looks impressive. I’ve added an extra bottle of rum to my preps. I wait for my dogs to get low before sheltering.

[RegulatorCountry]

The elevation of piling houses on some of the Keys is the highest I’ve ever seen. I thought 16 ft was high on the Outer Banks, but those have got to be at least 20. But then you have some of the towns with residences not elevated at all. I know a few of the marinas are regarded as hurricane holes but is the town of Key West itself that elevated? I mean, it would have to be at least 20 ft above sea level for no pilings to make the least amount of sense given the size of those islands.