No, killing Soleimani doesn’t mean war

spector.us ^ | 1/5/2020 | Daniel McCarthy

[bitt]

Maybe Trump’s critics are just as wrong as they’ve been every other time

Everybody knows Donald Trump is going to start a war. His critics have been saying so since his first year in office — remember the war with North Korea they predicted right after Trump tweeted about unleashing ‘fire and fury’ on the Little Rocket Man? That war didn’t happen. Nor did an insurgency break out when President Trump moved the US embassy in Israel to Jerusalem, an act that the Trump haters were certain would incite waves of violence and unquenchable turmoil. But maybe the third time’s the charm — maybe the killing of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, leader of the Quds Force division of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, in a US airstrike in Iraq will finally give the president’s detractors the war they’ve been anticipating.

Or maybe not — maybe the critics are just as wrong as they’ve been every other time: about wars that Trump didn’t start, about collusion with Russia that didn’t happen, about the crash of America’s economy…the list goes on. The president should be reassured to have enemies who are so reliably wrong.

Iran’s Islamic revolutionary regime might well want revenge. But is avenging Soleimani worth risking the regime’s existence? If killing him was an act of war, is this a war Iran is prepared to fight and win? How, exactly? Iran couldn’t win a war with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq in the 1980s. Contrary to what neoconservatives might want you to think, Iran has not become a military superpower akin to Nazi Germany in the 30-odd years since then. Also contrary to what neoconservatives sometimes say, Iran is not irrational to the point of being suicidal. But some panicky anti-war supporters of President Trump have adopted this implausible view of Tehran. ..

[bitt]

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[Jim W N]

It may mean war as far as Iran is concerned.

But of course, Iran declared war on the U.S. years ago...

[dsrtsage]

The democrats are already too busy fighting the United States citizens

[Pilgrim's Progress]

If anything, it might have delayed a war for a decade or so.

[Telepathic Intruder]

If Japan had bombed Pearl Harbor during Trump’s term, Democrats would complain that he might start a war. Obama’s previous term would have been 8 years of appeasing and apologizing to Hitler. Maybe even a Germany deal giving them everything they wanted.

[drellberg]

No one is taking the long view. Whatever power that Soleimani had within Iran, he was clearly the linchpin of Iran’s external efforts — all of them. Even with Soleimani fully in charge, these efforts were imploding as the resources to fund them dried up.

So as Iran is dealing with some of the greatest internal unrest since the Shah was deposed. And the hammer being used to manage, incentivize and discipline extra-national forces is now dead at a time when Iran’s resources and influence were already waning.

If I am Hezbollah, what is my prediction vis-a-vis Iran going forward? What do the Iraqis anticipate? And so forth. It can’t be anything other than grim; and clearly even grimmer today than three days ago.

Iran can assert all they want that they will now go on the offensive against the US, but the situation unambiguously points to the need for Iran to be defending the entrenched interests it already has in place and that are exceedingly vulnerable at this pregnant moment in history.

To strike boldly at the US now would be an act of desperation rather than rational and calculating strategy. Even if the Iranians could pull this off, their best move would be to bide their time and deal with more imminent matters first.

[independentmind]

I am certainly not a foreign policy expert, but I tend to agree with this article.

More of the same would not have provided any deterrent effect. It was past time to up the ante.

[null and void]

No, killing Soleimani doesn’t mean the war is over.

[Truthoverpower]

Persia is 7000 miles away. Everyone here in armed. Go for it mullahs

[Hostage]

POTUS tweeted that Suleimani was responsible for hundreds of recent deaths of IRANIAN protesters (see link below).

There will be no war between the US and Iran involving Troop engagement. President Trump will not send US Troops into Iran. He doesn't need to. He has tens of millions of people on the ground already who will gladly do that for him. The Iranian People are boiling over.

From last month and still ongoing:
With Brutal Crackdown, Iran Convulsed by Worst Unrest in 40 Years
https://theunionjournal.com/with-brutal-crackdown-iran-convulsed-by-worst-unrest-in-40-years-2

We will see with near certainty that President Trump backs the Iranian PEOPLE to overthrow their maniacal REGIME. They are so fed up.

Massive numbers of Iranian protesters not seen since the 1979 Islamic Revolution are now openly demonstrating against the Regime and hundreds are giving their lives in the protest. That is significant. Iran is very unstable much like the Soviet Union in 1989. We can see the era of Islamic terror brought to an historic end just as we saw the fall of the USSR.

Note the Iranian people are NOT ARMED except for a very few that get arms through black markets smuggled into the region. It is entirely possible perhaps probable that weapons are being supplied through Northern Syria through Southern Turkey into Northern Iran. The southern part of Turkey is populated by rural farmers and Turkish soldiers there can easily be made to look the other way just as they are made now with respect to black market oil from Iran brought in by truck convoys destined for Turkish oil ports. It is very possible that the arms supply chain via black marketers will be ratcheted up into Iran to protesters there. Now is the time.

Iranians remember when they had a society that was not obsessed with Islam, they remember they had a thriving middle class, a stable and good life, an economy that provided all basics including the ability to feed themselves. None of this exists today. But it's more than just economic hardship, the Iranian people are fed up with the whole Islamic ideology that leans on them. For years they have had regime spies watching their every move, listening to their every word and taking actions against them for failing to submit to the harsh Mullah rule. Their parents and grandparents REMEMBER when it was different. They have photo albums they keep hidden showing the good life they had. Now they are willing to die to bring it back.

Iranian family before the 1979 Islamic revolution (1960s)

Days after the revolution in 1979, a compulsory Hijab ruling was introduced. The regime issued up to 70 lashes or months of imprisonment for disobeying. Women were banned from being judges.

The legal age of marriage for girls was reduced to 9 and then raised to 13.

President Trump need not send American troops into Iran. He will cripple the Regime there with missile and drone strikes and he can help enable the Iranian people to oust their regime's leaders and break the ruling network. I believe President Trump will help them.

To get a sense of how angry the Iranian people are with their 'Deep State', imagine if the Democrats through blackmail and coercion are able to impeach and remove both President Trump and Vice President Pence, then swear in Nancy Pelosi as President who moves immediately to order the US Army to put down any insurrection and to disarm and confiscate guns followed by a very harsh doctrine of political correctness that Americans must comply with or they will be marked as domestic terrorists and dealt with accordingly.

As Americans we pray the Iranian people see freedom soon and pray that President Trump helps the Iranian people to oust the awful regime that rules over them allowing them to return to the society of their fathers and mothers.

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[higgmeister]

No, killing Soleimani doesn’t mean war

Yeah, the Iranian invasion force has been ordered to stand down.

[higgmeister]

No, killing Soleimani doesn’t mean war

Yeah, the Iranian invasion force has been ordered to stand down.

[Trump.Deplorable]

We have been at war with Iran for about 4 decades, its not over, but I think Trump deescalated it for a bit.

If anything, this proved the Iranians are not that bright in the first place, who puts their 2nd in command out on the battlefield in a foreign land like that? Its amateur hour.

2nd in command in two car loads of other high value targets, these terrorists were planning something big and we destroyed them.

Iran is embarrassed right now, they just got bested by a Real Estate developer/Reality TV host. They are full of empty threats right now, they finally realized they are truly powerless.

[SunkenCiv]

Yeah, but, but the murder of Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto of the Imperial Japanese Navy caused World War II!!!!! /s

[SunkenCiv]

What you said is all true, imho -- but that doesn't mean the mullahcracy won't strike in a desperate act. I suspect their main blow will be against Europe, or less possibly through greater spending on internal enemies, like the Jihad Squad, and nearby problems, like illegals at our southern border.

[fhayek]

The attack on Soleimani will lead to more violence and destabilize the Middle East.

I can't say that with a straight face...

[mason-dixon]

Soleimani was a power control threat to Ali Khamenei

[Vermont Lt]

That first picture is the Shah. While life was pretty good before the revolution, using the friggin’ king as an example is kind of lame.

I went to college with Iranian midshipmen. They were tossed out of the country in March 1980. The next semester some of them came back. The stories they told about life there, and what it took to get out couldn’t be made into a movie because the pussies in Hollywood would think it fantasy.

It opened my eyes to what a shit hole the Middle East is, and how smart people, as a group, can become pretty stupid.