Posted on 02/11/2020 8:50:15 PM PST by dangus
Several days ago, I proposed that China's big lie regarding the Coronavirus wasn't downplaying its contagiousness or deadliness, but the opposite: because the Coronavirus had run rampant through Hubei before they acknowledged it, they were under-reporting cases, and therefore the death rate looked so much worse. And because they had failed to distinguish the Coronavirus from the flu, many cases where people got the Coronavirus despite strong preventitive measures were actually cases where they had been exposed much earlier to "flu."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2019%E2%80%9320_Wuhan_coronavirus_outbreak
Whatever the reasons, I identified the Coronavirus as in decline, despite the hysterics of the media... at least according to official statistics from China, which other health organizations seem wont to find credible. I suppose this credibility comes from the fact that we're seeing data similar to China outside Hubei in the rest of the world.
For instance, in Hubei, the death rate is about 2 1/2%. It's a fraction of 1% outside Hubei, and only 2 people out of 513 cases internationally have died.
Meanwhile, the declining rate of NEW infections now includes Hubei. I emphasize that I'm talking about the rate of NEW infections, because so many FReepers have tried to contradict me by pointing out the increase in the cumulative number of cases. The cumulative number will ALWAYS increase until the disease is completely eradicated. My point is that the disease is spreading more slowly, and behaving less and less like an epidemic.
The number of cases outside Hubei peaked at 889 a week ago, and has been steadily collapsing since: 731... 707... 682... 554... 507,,, 431... 381. The peak INSIDE Hubei was a few days later, topping out at 3,156, but now down to 2,097. The number of cases OUTSIDE of Hubei spiked just yesterday, but that was largely because they began testing everyone stuck on a quarrantined cruise ship.
Also a noteworthy sign of relative control: the number of current confirmed cases plus suspected cases has now actually dropped yesterday. That's right: there are fewer people THOUGHT to have the Coronavirus yesterday than there were the day before.
Public transportation, the factories, etc.
And basically, all that was for nothing because they’ve decided to pretend it’s over.
Johns Hopkins is using the same numbers as everyone else.
Somewhere in MD or Northern VA there is an intern watching a video Satellite image over China...counting the cars that come to the crematoriums. That person knows the numbers and they are not telling.
What we need to watch is production numbers, shipping outbound, the cases in the West—where they are growing and person to person transmission.
I am NOT criticizing you, D. I think there is a lot of raw source intelligence out there that we could tap to get a sense of what Western Governments are “doing” rather than what is being said.
Our suppliers have been told they may re-open if they wish, but if anyone gets sick and dies they will be held responsible by the government.
Needless to say, most of the smaller companies will not be re-opening any time soon.
I sure hope you are right.
Are you able to extract the daily number of new cases outside China?
(Gonna need a wider browser window to display it all at once!)
Yes, I have it. I log thirty entities between three and five times daily. 29 are nations, and other represents that cruise ship in Japan.
Sounds like a lot of work, but it only takes 3-5 minutes to log a new full entry.
I’ll see if I can find a way to get it on a screen.
Agreed.
Maybe all statements should be prefaced something like: If the Chinese numbers are accurate, then if the number of new cases per day had not weakened in the face of the massive Chinese efforts to contain COVID-19, that would really be worrisome.
(Of course, that might be more worrisome yet if the Chinese are heavily fudging the numbers!)
We’ll see what happens as the Chinese try to get back to work...
Great! Thanks!
P.S. Maybe you ought to just post that and the table you posted here on the “daily” thread? Ditto if you combine it all. I’d copy it over with credit to you, but am not sure the formatting would “hold”.
It contains the raw data I've worked up.
This file is open to anyone who wishes to view it.
I have done my best to document this data accurately,
but I can't guarantee there are no errors.
I did take steps to make sure totals matched, so it
should be okay.
Got it.
Well, when I right-clicked on the link, IE tried to open the htm file and I got gibberish, as I don’t have a MS spreadsheet program on this machine. But I instead saved the file and opened it with Libre Office Portable, which worked fine.
Column AM, Row 63 (cases outside China - probably fairly accurate): Jumps to 591 cases, then Column AM, Row 64 drops back down to 456 cases. Maybe the 591 is a typo?
So far, the spread into countries outside of China seems well controlled - remarkably so, in fact.
I think I need 3 monitors...
Thanks!
There’s no typo.
The numbers under “OTHERS” in the nation section, is the number of cases on the cruise ship in Japan.
At first it was counted as if it was Japan.
They broke it out to be fair to Japan.
That “519” figure is correct.”
I’ve forgotten the exact numbers now, but if you take those cruise ship numbers out, the outside of China count has only gone up about 34 since the 6th.
I have notes in some of those cells. Look at them.
They’ll explain some of this for you, at least the part about numbers jumping up and down.
Ok - noted & thanks.
I need 4 monitors. ;-)
Updated: LINK
If true it could be attributed to the fact that they practically quarantined millions of people using very drastic measures and disinfected entire cities. Doesn’t mean the virus is gone or not dangerous. If the same thing happens here are we ready to quarantine millions and practically shut down the country as we spray blocks and blocks of major cities?
Updated: LINK
Error corrected.
Data updated mid documentation, turning on my data balance check system alarm.
>>Number of new cases drops to only about 2,000... but death rate continues to climb<<
Death RATE; or number of deaths? Former muy malo; latter,
normal and to be expected.
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