Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns

The Federalist ^ | March 25, 2020 | Madeline Osburn

[MV=PY]

"who said hoax? Interesting that the pearl clutchers always have to claim us skeptics are calling it a hoax. No one is calling it a hoax, we are calling it an over-hyped event in which the ‘cure’ is going to be way more devastating then the event itself. AGAIN.... 19000 folks died from H1N1 in the U.S. and it was a blip on the national news cycle. Perspective. Weeks ago the freeper snowflake pearl-clutchers were telling me just to wait a couple of weeks and I’d be eating my words. Sorry 2 weeks later and I’m still on my way to vindication."

Not a pearl clutcher, FRiend. I'm a realist trying to look at facts in all this noise.

My knee-jerk reaction to all this was to ignore it and go about my business (and yeah, I'm old and "vulnerable"). Not giving up my freedom for fear.

But I'm monitoring the situation. I hope you are correct! But we don't know enough yet. IMHO, President Trump is correct in waiting to make his calls (I hope we don't drop 2 trillion dollars on the problem).

[Flick Lives]

There were people on Long Island who refused to “black out” even while there were U boats just lying offshore...

—

Wow. Poor analogy.

[FreedomForce]

I’m paying particular attention to the daily deaths graph here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

That’s not looking good so far. When that turns the other way, I’ll start feeling better.

[BuckeyeGOP]

are you factoring in suicides, deaths as a result of a crash in standard of living and the years and years it will take to recover...if ever?

just asking

[Flick Lives]

It’s exactly the same. The very thing flubros are doing. I would expect JimRob to start kicking them out.

—

Kicked out? Sounds like the same sort of response from those pushing global warming. No disagreement allowed!

[wastoute]

Actually, yes. If every urban center descends into chaos the #new deaths due to virus will be horrific but trivial at the same time. That WOULD be quite an interesting world.

[Reno89519]

What is the real death rate in China? What number between their several thousand and the 21 million suggested by canceled phones. How many people disappeared?

We can see some great variation and good data from other locations. How about targeting isolation for the most vulnerable, finish 14-40 day quarantine (or whatever the current best guess risk range is), and get everyone else back to work?

[wastoute]

Watch what happens in the next day or two. Worldometers has almost 1,200 people ini ICU now. 1/3 in NYC, roughly. Today I would imagine every one of them will get the drugs. If it is a 100% cure the number in ICU beds should go to almost zero in 2 days. That would mean it is, essentially, over. I have nothing I’m selling. I pray the drugs work, next Monday we can start returning people to their lives in stages if they do at that time.

[billyboy15]

What is a “flubro”

Thr hysteria over this NON DEADLY VIRUS is manufactured 100%.

The BS is already beginning to unravel in Italy where we learned that the deaths attributed to the China Virus are monstrously overstated.

Already 25,000 here in America have died from the common flu and yet we never heard a word and mostly still don’t from the lib media.

Thousands if not millions of Americans may have contracted this China Virus and recovered without ever knowing they had it. This silly lock down is far, far to premature and I am more than confident that when the ongoing tests begin to show the how effective they will be this thing will end quickly. The country will come back to life a section at a time with certain areas such as NYC and other high density population centers having to wait a bit longer. But these places such as NYC will also be getting the initial bulk of medications which prove to be effective.

Thirty days, that’;s it and this thing is history, much to the chagrin of the pearl clutchers and America hating Left who simply used this as yet another attempt to bring down the President.

The desperation on the Left is amazing to me. Initially they just set out to destroy ONE MAN, the President DJT but when they continually failed in their attempts they went all in and decided if it took destroying the entire worlds economy to get rid of this man they would do it.

They will not only fail, they will be exposed.

[Pearls Before Swine]

In order to wear a mask, you have to have a mask. Actually, a supply of them, since reusability via kitchen sterilization isn’t proven to work.

The US is woefully short of masks at the moment.

But, I agree with you that would be the way to go once the masks are produced.

[FreedomForce]

Yeah, that’s the real test of the hydrocychloroquine + azithromycin. I’m not sure how accurate the icu stats on that website are, but we should still know.

[Pres Raygun]

Baloney. Due to our government’s incompetence, we don’t have enough testing kits to accurately know what the real mortality rate is. We are currently only testing those who are gravely ill, first responders and apparently celebrities. I have two colleagues who came down with a fever last week, who can’t get tested for Covid-19, because they are not sick enough or famous enough to qualify for testing. There may be 10-20 X the number of cases reported, which would put the mortality rate closer to common flu strains, which can kill up to 80,000 per flu season.

[bert]

The phenomena is asymptotic extrapolation

Aggregating isolated numbers and creating a general condition creates a false picture

[jetson]

Unfortunately half of this country is full of undisciplined, uneducated, dolts who have to be told by the government to stay in their rooms, just like mommy and daddy used to do.

[Zhang Fei]

In order to wear a mask, you have to have a mask. Actually, a supply of them, since reusability via kitchen sterilization isn’t proven to work.

The photos I see from Singapore and Hong Kong indicate that some are using hillbilly masks. Nothing, even an N95 mask, is foolproof. But even a homemade mask home-sewn from old T-shirts is better than no mask. I've read that a cotton T-shirt is 69% as effective as an N95 in filtering out particulate material. The amusing thing is that cotton blend is better than 100% cotton. As to sterilization, this bug is presumably like any other virus - 165F for 15 seconds, and it's deactivated.

 

Minimum Temperatures and Holding Times

165 °F (15 seconds)

• Poultry--chicken, turkey, duck, goose--whole, parts or ground
• Soups, stews, stuffing, casseroles, mixed dishes
• Stuffed meat, poultry, fish and pasta
• Leftovers (to reheat)
• Food, covered, cooked in microwave oven (hold covered 2 minutes after removal)

155 °F (15 seconds)

• Hamburger, meatloaf and other ground meats; ground fish *
• Fresh shell eggs--cooked and held for service (such as, scrambled) *

145 °F (15 seconds)

• Beef, corned beef, pork, ham--roasts (hold 4 minutes) *
• Beef, lamb, veal, pork--steaks or chops
• Fish, shellfish
• Fresh shell eggs--broken, cooked and served immediately

140 °F (15 seconds)

• Ham, other roasts--processed, fully cooked (to reheat)
• Fruits and vegetables that are cooked

*For alternative times and temperatures, see the FDA Food Code 2001 http://vm.cfsan.fda.gov/~dms/foodcode.html

Hold all hot food at 135 °F or above after cooking

USDA Meat and Poultry Hotline 1-888-MPHotline

FDA Food Information Line 1-888-SAFE FOOD

(USDA symbol) Food Safety and Inspection Service
U.S. Department of Agriculture

www.fsis.usda.gov/thermy

USDA is an equal opportunity employer and provider.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Trump addressed this in his town hall yesterday.

When the “experts” first came to him on this they were pitching mortality rates of 4 to 5 percent. Faced with those staggering numbers of course he went to DEFCON 1.

The actual number will probably settle somewhere close to South Korea’s 0.7%.

[FreedomForce]

I wonder how long the virus persists on a mask. If they could be left unused for a period of time then reused, that could help, especially for the layman.

[Pearls Before Swine]

I was going to do a few minutes at low pressure in the Instant Pot, with a low temp oven dry after.

The active materials are polypropylene for the filter and polyester fiber for the cloth parts.

The real issue is having the discipline to steam, roast, or toast the mask after every outside human contact, however brief.

Nice chart!

[Zhang Fei]

[I wonder how long the virus persists on a mask. If they could be left unused for a period of time then reused, that could help, especially for the layman.]

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People have oven thermometers and toaster ovens. Crank up the oven to 165F. Verify that the temperature is 165F (and not higher, given that elastic and plastics do melt at higher temps). Stick the masks in. Set a kitchen timer for 2 minutes. (Nothing wrong with overkill). Remove the masks with kitchen tongs to avoid burns.

[CFW]

This site previously had Georgia at the “too late to act” position as of March 24th. Once the 24th got here they changed it to April 9th