Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns

The Federalist ^ | March 25, 2020 | Madeline Osburn

[billyboy15]

“The phenomena is asymptotic extrapolation

Aggregating isolated numbers and creating a general condition creates a false picture”

In other words, garbage in, garbage out?

[FreedomForce]

I only have 3 (2 1/2 really since 1 of those is valved) N95 masks left over from years ago. Haven’t used them yet, but having so few i want to be careful not to damage them. Heating them in the oven still sounds like the way to go.

[RinaseaofDs]

Dr. John Campbell has morphed into a right fear merchant too. Why they aren’t flooding the space with HCQ and then letting the results come in is telling.

This is an OP.

[MortMan]

330 million masks (which could be per day) puts a big strain on the medical supply lines that are already strained. The government would have to procure and supply the masks as well, because I know such items are hard to get in my area right now.

Regarding your tag line, I once had a 76 Grand Le Mans. Mine had the inboard-outboard motor! I often called it my “land yacht”.

[SMARTY]

True-but remember, under the law, all businesses have to meet their ‘due diligence’ obligations .

Down the road, if we can think that far, no business owner or concern wants to be sued for ignoring or overlooking their duty to employees or the public in general.

They're stuck in that lawyers trap, so they can't afford to be casual about reports of a ‘pandemic.

[JayAr36]

Never underestimate the absolute ignorance of the American Sheeple.

[NobleFree]

The man behind the projections is refusing to make his code public.

Dangerous charlatan.

[Sequoyah101]

And both have been correct for quite some time now.

[Sequoyah101]

Oh but face masks are only effective for medical workers. You don’t know how to fit them properly or something. They only help to prevent the spread of the virus from infected people.

Do the people saying these things actually believe them, are they that stupid or do they think we are all stupid enough to believe them?

I’ve heard enough lies, half-truths and misleading statements made to last a life time during this mess.

[Sequoyah101]

That guy presenting the model is chinese?

Instant credibility right?

[central_va]

If Obama was still President ( God forbid ) NOTHING WOULD HAVE BEEN SHUT DOWN.

[Sequoyah101]

I won’t pile on the correction.

Is that expressed as a % of the entire population?

[Svartalfiar]

It has been known for almost a millennia that quarantine is the most (and until recently only) effective thing you can do. In the past the reason to act quickly to an epidemic was because if you failed to your neighbor would swoop in and take everything while you were on your back. Quarantine has been a military maneuver more than anything else, historically.

Also historically, a quarantine was of a ship, or a person, place, or area, known to have a contagious vector. It was never just a complete shutdown of society everywhere, especially in places that were contagion-free.

[wastoute]

There hasn’t been a pandemic like this in a century. Everything is unprecedented. So much so the word becomes meaningless. “Novel” covers it. The sun coming up this morning was unprecedented.

[Jane Long]

Houston and Dallas are on Stay at Home orders, until April 3rd.

Gov Abbott won’t issue state wide, since MOST counties have no cases.....at this time.

[Svartalfiar]

When the “experts” first came to him on this they were pitching mortality rates of 4 to 5 percent. Faced with those staggering numbers of course he went to DEFCON 1.

The actual number will probably settle somewhere close to South Korea’s 0.7%.

Given their current caseload, SKorea's numbers can't hit a 0.7% CFR. With 9137 total cases, 126 deaths, and 3730 recoveries per Johns Hopkins, SKorea currently has a mortality rate of 3.27%, and a best-case CFR of 1.38%. And that's assuming every single current case recovers, and there are no further deaths. Unlikely.

Even if we assume 20% of cases go undiscovered (unlikely due to SKorea's extensive testing, it's maybe 5% at most), that still leaves the CFR at 1.10%.

[ReaganGeneration2]

The hoax is the level of criticality.

Why believe models that show hundreds of thousands of deaths HERE, but not even close to what actually happened in China?

[MV=PY]

"Why believe models that show hundreds of thousands of deaths HERE, but not even close to what actually happened in China?"

Great question! Do you have better data?

If so, will you please share?

[FreeReign]

The CFR is NOT 5.7%!