And when the death rate is three times the recovery rate, let me know if you need us to help you interpret the graph:
Posted on 04/21/2020 6:28:51 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
The Swedish Public Health Agency has collaborated on a new study that estimates one-third of all Stockholm residents will have been infected with COVID-19 by May 1. That amounts to approximately 600,000 people in Sweden’s capital city. Sweden’s official figures report only 15,322 positive cases so far in the whole of the country, suggesting significant numbers of “invisible” infections.
The astonishing numbers are in stark contrast to the latest World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that “no more than two to three percent” of the world’s population have been infected.
Sweden’s acting state epidemiologist Anders Wallenstein confirmed the findings during the latest daily press conference about the virus outbreak. It was also revealed that a further 185 coronavirus-related deaths have occurred in Sweden in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 1,765.
The study indicates that for every confirmed case of COVID-19, a further 999 people are likely to have been infected with the virus without knowing it. The study used a model that includes the number of positive COVID-19 cases in Stockholm from February 17 to April 10, along with samples taken from infected people in the period March 27 to April 3.
Professor Johan Giesecke, former Chief Scientist of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), told SVT the estimates are good. “The virus is very contagious but most people who are infected do not know it.” One of the reasons for his confidence is a new coronavirus test that has been performed on blood donors in the Stockholm region. It showed that at least 11 out of 100 have developed antibodies.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
Millions will die! We promise!
I don’t understand how the Swedish and Stanford models can diverge so dramatically. Even allowing for the fact that Sweden should have higher rates of transmission than other western countries because, uniquely, it’s resisted lockdowns and school closings, we should logically expect to see a higher number of deaths per capita early in their outbreak too. And we do see a big number — they’re seventh in the world in deaths per million people. But that’s only about a third of Belgium’s number and less than half of Spain’s and Italy’s (both countries implemented STRINGENT lockdowns). How is Sweden pulling off a singularly high infection rate with a not so singularly high death rate?
One possibility is that their infection rate isn’t actually singular. Maybe hot spots in Italy, Spain, and Belgium are also much further towards herd immunity than anyone suspects right now. And … New York? Nate Silver is intrigued by the data suggesting that New York’s infection rate has fallen below 1.0, which can be the result of a comprehensive lockdown — or herd immunity.
New York City had *seemed* have an R of around 0.9, with a fairly slow decline from a plateau. But the decline has accelerated in the past week or so and the past few days of testing data suddenly makes it look more like an R of 0.7. More like 0.8 in the suburbs and 0.85 upstate.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 21, 2020
Yeah, it is not crazy to ask questions about this stuff, particularly given how we're now seeing notably steeper deceleration in NYC than upstate. https://t.co/22o2Nvkiae
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) April 21, 2020
An order of magnitude higher than th erecent Calif. studies.
ah, forget it, the Corona Apocalypse is a train that simply isn't coming.
Surprised that there hasn’t been an antibody testing program started there.
Would be very interesting and very informative.
I mean a BIG antibody testing program.
Guess I’ll have to read the article now... the ultimate FR punishment!
THAT is what herd immunity looks like.
Almost everyone gets “infected”
Most don’t show any symptoms.
Some get mildly sick.
And a few die.
So when the clock strikes 12 PM on June 20th, the summer solstice; everyone infected will turn into a zombie and start eating the non infected people?
Oh wait; I have that mixed up a movie or tv show or something...
If Sweden pulls this off, I’ll never say another bad thing about that country.
We really don’t know unless we do massive antibodies testing.
Maybe they aren’t calling every death a Covid death.
It’s not the deaths . . . It’s who counts the deaths . . . Sounds familiar.
22 Apr: Reuters: Swedish health agency says virus has peaked in Stockholm, no easing of restrictions yet
(This story corrects to remove paragraph saying “The study estimated that for each case confirmed by the authorities, 999 milder cases were not recorded because people did not seek medical help” after Sweden’s Health Authority retracted that part of its statement, saying it was incorrect. Rest of text unchanged.)
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/swedish-health-agency-says-virus-has-peaked-in-stockholm-no-easing-of-restrictions-yet-idUSKCN2232AI
If Sweden pulls this off, I’ll never say another bad thing about that country.
I’m pretty sure they will pull it off!!!
Are they using same models we are?
Can you give us the “Cliff Notes” version?
You know that Forbes is majority-owned by the CCP?
I have also said many bad things about Sweden over the years...but nothing bad during CV.
Can’t believe Sweden is the only country left with balls.
And when the death rate is three times the recovery rate, let me know if you need us to help you interpret the graph:
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